Wales (Cymru) Winter Regional Discussion 07/01/14

[TonyH]

Today is making a very determined attempt to ensure this is my wettest January, already 11mm in 3 hours, another 12mm required to beat the 238mm in Jan 2008. Pools of water on the lawn.

[Bobby]

Today is making a very determined attempt to ensure this is my wettest January, already 11mm in 3 hours, another 12mm required to beat the 238mm in Jan 2008. Pools of water on the lawn.

 

Here too, the borders have become duck ponds. Rain so heavy the satellite signal is dying at times. The winds have really picked up in the last hour as well, a few 40-50mph gusts I'd say.

 

EURO4 predicting 30-50mm for much of S Wales over next 48 hours, NMM similar too.

 

 

Some convective interest too over coming days with chance of hail, thunder and lightning from showers.

Edited January 31, 2014 by Bobby

[andymusic]

horrible cold and wet and windy today - worst of the wind will be tomorrow though

 

Yellow Warning of Ice for Wales

 

Yellow Warning of Ice for Wales : Blaenau Gwent, Bridgend, Caerphilly, Cardiff, Carmarthenshire, Ceredigion, Conwy, Denbighshire, Flintshire, Gwynedd, Isle of Anglesey, Merthyr Tydfil, Monmouthshire, Neath Port Talbot, Newport, Pembrokeshire, Powys, Rhonnda Cynon Taff, Swansea, Torfaen, Vale of Glamorgan & Wrexham valid from 2300 Fri 31 Jan to 1100 Sat 01 Feb

 

Yellow Warning of Wind for Wales

Yellow Warning of Wind for Wales : Bridgend, Caerphilly, Cardiff, Carmarthenshire, Ceredigion, Conwy, Gwynedd, Isle of Anglesey, Merthyr Tydfil, Monmouthshire, Neath Port Talbot, Newport, Pembrokeshire, Powys, Rhonnda Cynon Taff, Swansea, Torfaen, Vale of Glamorgan, Blaenau Gwent, Denbighshire, Flintshire & Wrexham valid from 0600 Sat 01 Feb to 0300 Sun 02 Feb

Edited January 31, 2014 by andymusic

[dragon falls]

Lashing down for a few hours now the river taff is getting high though again the road around the corner

[andymusic]

Issued at: 1222 on Fri 31 Jan 2014

Valid from: 2300 on Fri 31 Jan 2014

Valid to: 1100 on Sat 1 Feb 2014

Outbreaks of rain will clear eastwards on Friday evening and into the early hours of Saturday. As skies clear, temperatures will fall allowing icy stretches to form on untreated surfaces across northern and western Britain. The situation will be complicated by a wintry mix of showers following from the west. Snow accumulations will mainly occur on ground above around 200 m but some slight accumulations are possible to lower levels locally. In addition the wintry showers may wash off earlier treatment of surfaces increasing the risk of ice.  The public should be aware of the risk of difficult driving conditions.

The  frontal system which brought Friday's rain will clear eastwards on Friday night followed by a colder west or southwesterly airstream. This will bring a wintry mix of showers overnight and at first on Saturday. However, less cold air will follow to many parts from the southwest through Saturday morning confining the risk of snow to northern hills

Edited January 31, 2014 by J10
Edited formatting to make easier to read.

[J10]

Rain here today as everywhere else, but cold rain, making it even worse.

 

Looking at the Met Office website, it appears to show more snow in the showers than was the case last week [away from southern Coastal areas] both in the maps shown and the Text forecast below.

 

Latest Text Forecast for Wales

 

Headline:

 

Rain clearing to showers, becoming wintry. Very windy on Saturday.

 

This Evening and Tonight:

Rain will ease this evening, with clear spells and scattered showers following. The showers will be locally heavy in the west and become increasingly wintry. A cold night with a frost and some icy patches away from windward coasts. Minimum Temperature 0 Â°C.

 

Saturday:

Cold with squally, locally thundery, showers; merging into bands of rain. Low level snow becoming confined to mountains. Very windy with severe gales along coasts, and potentially near any showers. Maximum Temperature 8 Â°C.

Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday:

Sunday windy, but less so than recent days, with sunny spells and heavy showers. Turning very windy once more Monday with further rain. Tuesday windy with heavy showers. Chilly nights.

Issued at: 1600 on Fri 31 Jan 2014

 

I would show the 6-30 day forecast but it is X rated.

Edited January 31, 2014 by J10

[Bobby]

The NMM isn't too exciting with regards to snow, a brief opportunity mainly over high ground tonight

 

 

Another marginal opportunity later on Saturday morning

 

 

Think it's going to be the same old story, snow over the mountains, wintry mix down to lower levels

[CLH the red dragon]

Hopefully there will be small fallings of snow. Because the alternative is moderate amounts of rain exacerbating the surface water issues.

[J10]

If we look at the models, NMM does not have uppers at 850Hpa below -5c tonight, and as such it is not surprise that snow predictions are less than that of EURO4.

 

 

Compared to EURO4

 

 

With this you can see why the Met Office forecast is more snowy inland compared to NMM.

 

Again though a lack of precipitation may be an issue as was the case last week.

 

 

Edited January 31, 2014 by J10

[Bobby]

More heavy rain moving in from the SW on the radar. It's endless.

[dragon falls]

Looks like the showers are building again could be snow mixed in think I will be hail down this way looking at the models its low after low coming up

[andymusic]

Some decent reports from Ireland getting some heavy and widespread snow - could be good for us later tonight!

[Welsh_Weather]

Some decent reports from Ireland getting some heavy and widespread snow - could be good for us later tonight!

Don't think so Andy, most of the cold uppers are moving north east rather than east, possibly sleet on hills and snow on the peaks but more likely a lot of heavy rain and hail in this approaching squal line. We may see the odd flake later in the night, and it guess that is what this winter has turned into, a search for a few flakes of wet snow.

[TonyH]

Seems too mild for any snow hope tonight bar highest ground, currently 6 to 9c over much of Wales.

[keithlucky]

Seems too mild for any snow hope tonight bar highest ground, currently 6 to 9c over much of Wales.

Smell of desperation anything but rain Tony.

[andymusic]

storey arms looking wintry again at 440m

 

edit:- wind is starting to kick off here too now

Edited January 31, 2014 by andymusic

[keithlucky]

Seems too mild for any snow hope tonight bar highest ground, currently 6 to 9c over much of Wales.

Been trying to dig foundations for house for the last few months on and off every time we return the ground has filled with a pond ,i have never seen this amount of rain .in the building trade over this long period of time,

[Panayiotis]

From 12am to 3am the temperature dropped 4C! I guess thats PM air!

[Welsh_Weather]

First proper snow of the winter in aberdare, OK it's wet snow but it's snow, and it's giving giving a slushy covering on the cars.

[Jackfrost]

Snowing and settling somewhat here.

[Bafan]

Woke up to a slight covering. Just started to snow again! Fab to see "proper" snow falling :-D

[freeze for all]

Slight slush on the windscreen of cars here but the mountains behind r white here

[Jayfromcardiff]

Anyone know if it snowed here in cardiff? I was out for the count at 12 lol.

[Panayiotis]

Sunny blue skies here in Cardiff! No snow  I was up until around 3am and no PPN had fallen, radar showed some arrive around 5am but dew points were above 0C so rain was more likely

Edited February 1, 2014 by Panayiotis

[CLH the red dragon]

We had some. Tiny tiny amount, it settled on car roofs and on the black rubber matting in the park opposite. So, this week. Apocalyptic. But signs of a change. Let's hope that next Friday's low is out in FI and that the pattern change is around then. I think we can just about take the monster lows of the week but Friday might be just too far.