Wales (Cymru) Winter Regional Discussion 07/01/14

[Welsh_Weather]

Travelling home from old Trafford last night and it was snowing on the tops of the heads of the valleys.

[CLH the red dragon]

Let's just be done with it. The model thread seems to alternate between the hunt for snow and wanting to be a spectator on ever deepening, life threatening low pressure systems.It seems, for some, that the suffering of those whose homes have been underwater for months is a mere blip on their search for watching insane weather.

 

By our very nature, we love weather of all types, and we can't change what happens with any emotion we express. But I find the hope of seeing yet more rain, yet more violent winds, yet more potential misery, miserable.

[Bobby]

Let's just be done with it. The model thread seems to alternate between the hunt for snow and wanting to be a spectator on ever deepening, life threatening low pressure systems.

It seems, for some, that the suffering of those whose homes have been underwater for months is a mere blip on their search for watching insane weather.

 

By our very nature, we love weather of all types, and we can't change what happens with any emotion we express. But I find the hope of seeing yet more rain, yet more violent winds, yet more potential misery, miserable.

 

Yes there looks likely to be a lot of disruption coming up into February with flooding and gales making the headlines once more and Wales right in the firing line. Most problems in SW England probably, really struggling down there still with floods, the Somerset levels are like an inland sea with villages cut off for weeks and could end up months at this rate.

Next band of heavy rain moves in Friday with an inch or so in places and as much as 40mm locally.

 

[dragon falls]

Yes looks like a bad day again can see a lot of damage and crops being ruin this year hope we get a dry march April this year

[Panayiotis]

Radar showing widespread snow/sleet over England, is this a default or is it actually showing this!!!? Moving SW..

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=radar;sess=

Edited January 29, 2014 by Panayiotis

[J10]

Radar showing widespread snow/sleet over England, is this a default or is it actually showing this!!!? Moving SW..

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=radar;sess=

 

That is based on the model conditions (nmm) at that time, it does not actually signify the real precipitation.

[andymusic]

recent pen y fan piccy

 

 

 

Edited January 29, 2014 by andymusic

[SLAMMER]

the met forecast for pen y fan is snow for the next five days

[andymusic]

really trying up there - sledges at the ready

 

 

[Panayiotis]

Check the latest E4 for Friday night guys!

[andymusic]

saturday morning! - more of those lovely hail/snow/sleet things then I think!

 

 

we'll see

 

Edited January 30, 2014 by andymusic

[welshwizard]

Just saw the weather and did say possible bit of sleet snow over high ground on sat, but at the end Derick said wet and windy for first part of Feb, sounds fab more wind and blooming rain. roll on summer please be warm and sunny.

[keithlucky]

Check the latest E4 for Friday night guys!

Yes charts still tantalizing Us P  then again Tuesday Model watching is torture LOL

Edited January 30, 2014 by keithlucky

[Bobby]

The latest NMM shows a snow risk on Saturday, but it's brief and likely restricted to higher ground (especially for anything settling)

 

I would say unless you live on very high ground sleet/wet snow is likely. Accumulations over the Brecon Beacons/Snowdonia perhaps.

Edited January 30, 2014 by Bobby

[Panayiotis]

Interest still being shown by the 12z Euro4 model, waiting for the 48hr chart to update to see what that brings!

[snefnug]

Snow dusting on the tops of the hills.  Cold day - not more than 3-4 degrees, but dry ish.  Just waterfilled - air, ground, streams and rivers.  But have to say, wouldn't swop this for last winter - snowy as it was.  At least now the sheep are alive... if wet.

 

All this talk on mod thread about how snowy our winters have been is a bit meh...  the last three winters saw snow in parts of UK, but prior to that a good run of dreary snowless wet winters we had.

[Panayiotis]

CFS for February shows that we could see temporary snowfalls from the west, like we saw on Monday and tomorrow (and possibly again on Tuesday)

Again March showing as cold (im a firm believer that this month will be cold...)

[keithlucky]

The latest NMM shows a snow risk on Saturday, but it's brief and likely restricted to higher ground (especially for anything settling)

 

I would say unless you live on very high ground sleet/wet snow is likely. Accumulations over the Brecon Beacons/Snowdonia perhaps.

You never know snowed across midlands welsh borders today not forecasted at all.

[Bobby]

You never know snowed across midlands welsh borders today not forecasted at all.

 

It was to be fair, GFS 12z yesterday, just nothing significant

 

[J10]

It was to be fair, GFS 12z yesterday, just nothing significant

 

 

I'll put in my diary that GFS snow chart was right for once.

Edited January 30, 2014 by J10

[J10]

As for the wintry potential for Saturday compared to last week. GFS has less cold air and thicknesses, so not as promising.

 

EURO4 has -6c uppers at 850Hpa compared to -7c last week, thicknesses are sub 522 for a time. Dew points are around freezing.

 

One clear advantage over last week is that there is some cold air currently in place, and although turning milder tomorrow, never getting that mild in some parts, especially inland.

 

3 major factors, the coldest air is early morning rather than late evening, always a bonus as early morning is generally the coldest part of the day.

There is likely to be precipitation this time, last week it was largely dry when the coldest air pushes through around 9pm.

and one major negative, the winds are South Westerly and this severely minimises any wintry potential for southern coastal areas.

 

So IMO in summary perhaps a slightly better chance of snow inland, but less in southern coastal areas. All compared to last week.

 

A very mild outlook though with ECM T+240, very yellow across mainland Europe.

Edited January 30, 2014 by J10

[keithlucky]

Quite interesting that bbc wales are saying snow showers even at lower levels across Wales heavy at times

[Marcus_surfer]

Nice dry evening here for once it feels much drier air feeling more like winter but back to normal it looks by tomorrow/weekend. Currently 2.2C

[andymusic]

latest euro 4 looking fairly good for saturday

 

 

 

we live in hope this time of at least a little something wintry

 

Edited January 30, 2014 by andymusic

[snefnug]

Snowing over the tops of Berwyns and absolutely horrible sleety cold driving rain at our level.  yeuch!  Right, back to indignant letter to Post Office protesting closure of our local village PO.  I feel reet in the mood!!!!