Wales (Cymru) Winter Regional Discussion 07/01/14

[keithlucky]

Once we get over our severe storm Sunday we seem to be stuck in a N Westerly flow all week ,with wintery showers,with longer spells of sleet/snow at times a look at Monday  gfs  .The weather pattern stays the same most of the week with HP over the N East a LP stuck over the N West.Towards next weekend the LP drifts S East ,so  a wintry outlook ahead next week.

Edited January 23, 2014 by keithlucky

[freeze for all]

Just seen Michael Fish's forecast and it pretty much said all rain for the south next week with maybe a chance of snow over higher ground and the further north u are!! This winter is dire bring on spring I've given up lol

[andymusic]

Just seen Michael Fish's forecast and it pretty much said all rain for the south next week with maybe a chance of snow over higher ground and the further north u are!! This winter is dire bring on spring I've given up lol

still looking good for some wintriness next week for us in Wales

 

 

reports coming through this morning/afternoon now of snow in the Midlands and the north west - improvements hopefully continue in the coming days - was showing these showers falling as snow in Wales only a few days ago - so close!   

Edited January 23, 2014 by andymusic

[freeze for all]

still looking good for some wintriness next week for us in Wales

 

I've got no faith in those charts what so ever

[keithlucky]

I've got no faith in those charts what so ever

The snow charts are just a guide but least shows type of precipitation  ,  there"s a general agreement atm turning colder after the weekend torrents of rain (Sunday we need an ark)turning colder with temperatures 3c to 5c Monday Tuesday ,with a cold blustery N West wind with heavy wintry showers so if you like snow next week a lot to look forward too.

Edited January 23, 2014 by keithlucky

[andymusic]

where's this come from??????????????

 

expect changes at short notice now!

 

 

I sense colder air mixed in with sunday/mondays storm - possible further upgrades to come!

 

Edited January 23, 2014 by andymusic

[freeze for all]

where's this come from??????????????

 

expect changes at short notice now!

 

No offence mate but that's another chart I've got no faith in, I don't know how many times I've seen u post these charts but lt very rarely verifies! I'm all for getting excited etc when there's good signs of cold and snow showing but the experts r saying rain with a slight chance of hill snow so it would b better to say what the experts r saying instead of getting peoples hopes up??

[andymusic]

No offence mate but that's another chart I've got no faith in, I don't know how many times I've seen u post these charts but lt very rarely verifies! I'm all for getting excited etc when there's good signs of cold and snow showing but the experts r saying rain with a slight chance of hill snow so it would b better to say what the experts r saying instead of getting peoples hopes up??

not talking about December 2010 type conditions (that was a 100 year event) - but considering the winter we've had so far - we are getting closer in seeing something wintry - slight changes here and there could well produce - already reports today of snow midlands and north west - I understand how you feel - it's been a long haul - let's hope the wait has been worth it - if not - then this winter goes into the close but no cigar file - BUT, it ain't over yet - Feb is the coldest month statistically - still alot to play for!

Edited January 23, 2014 by andymusic

[andymusic]

a little lampost watching sunday night

 

[keithlucky]

Another promising run from Hp holding firm Lp feeding a cold N Westerly feed with wintry showers at times

[J10]

I can understand those who post about certain models snow forecasts which can at times overstate snow potential, indeed I have criticised them earlier this winter.

 

However given the winter so far, no proper snow showers since November, I think of leeway can be granted.

 

In short remaining rather unsettled, but with temps on the decrease, an increased chance of some wintriness and indeed snow over the next week or so, especially but not exclusively over the hills.

Edited January 23, 2014 by J10

[J10]

Just seen Michael Fish's forecast and it pretty much said all rain for the south next week with maybe a chance of snow over higher ground and the further north u are!! This winter is dire bring on spring I've given up lol

 

Given the current state of play, I think is underplaying things and potential somewhat, he is of course right there are better chances further north and on hills but this is always the case.

 

 

 

These charts show a chance of some wintriness for Monday morning and Wednesday morning as things stand. Certainly marginal and not going to give heavy settling snowfalls, but certainly a chance of some wintriness.

Edited January 23, 2014 by J10

[soupsurfer7]

I'm a bit sceptical about the whole '100% rain away from northern high ground' scenario that's being worshipped in the model thread. More of a mixture of rain, sleet and snow even in the south IMHO.

[andymusic]

Seems the model thread has it's knickers in a twist and excitement over ECM 12zs ensembles - the op was mild and the mean was alot colder with more influence from the Scandi high - this basically means colder uppers across the UK later next week - more potential for snowy weather - I'd imagine east coast/midlands orientated (although shouts of "all of the UK will be effected" can be heard - we shall see - will need to be shown in the model ops in the next few days for things to pan out like that - but IF is not disputing the fact that something could well be in the pipeline that's not really showing up just yet. We shall see.

[soupsurfer7]

Apparently there's potential for snow around the south west on Monday, possibly affecting south Wales (from Ian F)

[soupsurfer7]

Interesting times ahead, such a mild and wet winter so far and now there are some signs of a change afoot with different air-masses having increasing influence near or over the UK.

[andymusic]

Apparently there's potential for snow around the south west on Monday, possibly affecting south Wales (from Ian F)

[Panayiotis]

Bristol channel convection likely to take place on Monday hail/snow for South Wales looking @ current models. 

[dyl232]

So is it mainly eastern side of the uk will see the snow next week then?they all seem to talk about the east gettin all of it 'as usuall' Will us in wales miss out then? :/

[andymusic]

So is it mainly eastern side of the uk will see the snow next week then?they all seem to talk about the east gettin all of it 'as usuall' Will us in wales miss out then? :/

nope - in fact the atlantic will still be sending some fronts in (depending on the scandi block) which will probably fall as snow over Wales - over the weekend mountain forecasts showing the snow level dropping to around 400m or less in the Beacons for eg. it's a slow transition this one - but one that by the middle of next week and into Feb could be producing alot of wintry weather and snow.

 

Edited January 24, 2014 by andymusic

[keithlucky]

So is it mainly eastern side of the uk will see the snow next week then?they all seem to talk about the east gettin all of it 'as usuall' Will us in wales miss out then? :/

No Ian Fergesson said snow for the Swest as a Lp SLIDES DOWN THE IRSH SEA towards the middle of the week,Remember the people in model forum concentrate on the east UK because thats were most of them live.

[andymusic]

winter (day 2 lol) - foggy as hell - drizzly rain - flipping cold - reports of "WET SNOW" nr. Cirencester this morning at around 700ft (200m or so) - so just over the bridge - it's getting closer and closer! 

 

twitter updates from hugo/fergie/and dancing derek all suggest colder weather next week with colder 850s over a wide stretch of the UK!

 

OVER AND OUT!

 

edit:- so close now - SUNDAY AFTERNOON

 

 

overnight and into Monday morning

 

Edited January 24, 2014 by andymusic

[Panayiotis]

Snow now at 57hrs (Andy its coming closer!!), lamppost watch for Sunday night!

[Clair_Witch]

LAMPOST WATCH!   I so hope we are about to get some winterness, I know the charts aren't 100%, but they're giving us more chances for next week. We can only hope. xxx

[andymusic]

lovely set up from the gfs again - atlantic hitting the cold easterly air - nice to see - bit too far out to confirm details just yet - but other models (ECM) suggesting colder 850s into the UK - so any atlantic front will hopefully go something like this

 

 

 

 

WOW - AND WINTER FINALLY STRIKES BACK

 

 

 

by the 1st FEB we should be nicely entrenched in snow - a la GFS 12z

 

GFS really picked up on the cold signal today - WINTER has a sting in it's tail!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!    

Edited January 24, 2014 by andymusic