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Angelici Magiovinium

Wales (Cymru) Winter Regional Discussion 07/01/14

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Please use this thread for your discussions about the current weather or what is being forecast for the next few days in Wales...please remember these regional threads were set up to talk about local conditions and your thoughts on how things are panning out so can we keep things light and topical and avoid any personal remarks - Thanks Posted Image

 

 

link to the previous one here.....

 

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78308-wales-cymru-autumn-regional-discussion-281013/page-39

Edited by MKsnowangel

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A line of active thunderstorms associated with a trough across SW Wales at the moment, you lot in the Swansea area must be having some thunder and lightning now? Past 24 hours have been really frustrating here with storms constantly drifting just to our west. The storms are painfully near here, just drift a little bit east darn you!

Edited by Bobby

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Just been battered by it in Morriston! Just in time for the kids to get out of school lol thunder,lightening and hail!

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Hmm close but no cigar again. Looks like those storms are passing over the Brecon Beacons, wouldn't like be walking up there right now, you'd be a walking lightning conductor.

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This:

 

Following reanalysis of the Great Storm of 1987, led by Professor Keith Browning at the University of Reading, researchers identified a mesoscale flow where the most damaging winds were shown to be emanating from the evaporating tip of the hooked cloud head on the southern flank of the cyclone. This cloud, hooked like a scorpion's tail, gives the wind region its name the "Sting Jet".

 

Source: Wikipedia.

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Sting jet development for Wednesday night?

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

I don't think the system is deep or 'unstable' enough for a sting jet. Could be quite a lot of rain though.

 

 

What's a sting jet? Plz

 

Here is a good explanation, the PDF is worth a read

 

See http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/in-depth/1987-great-storm/sting-jet

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/2/p/Sting_Jet_Flyer.PDF

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brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr - America at the mo - Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

and tonight's GFS going in the right direction - but still not quite getting there yet - but a little more westward movement and who knows - unlikely to be that cold - let's see what the ecm can churn out

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 Was asleep at the time of the thunderstorm last night, or at least at the start of it, judging by the noise it was pretty close by.

 

Being woken up by loud thunder not pleasant, in the minutes that followed frequent bursts of light. Speaking to people in work, Llanelli and Port Talbot also saw some action.

Edited by J10

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Snow on the way next week Posted Imageaccording to metcheck (gfs based) from the 15th of January onwards(forgot what snow symbols looked like LoL) As a LP attacks from the S west And HP builds from the N East a classic battle ground fight between milder air from the Swest and colder air from The N east.

Edited by keithlucky

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well well well - finally at last somewhere around tuesday/wednesday next week in the uk - potentially could see a good dumping of snow - no doubt the models will move the atlantic front west - east - west against the scandi high coming in from the north east - just details - but it looks like finally winter will be arriving in the uk next week!

 

Posted Image

 

plenty in the low res 18z too

 

Posted Image

Edited by andymusic

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well well well - finally at last somewhere around tuesday/wednesday next week in the uk - potentially could see a good dumping of snow - no doubt the models will move the atlantic front west - east - west against the scandi high coming in from the north east - just details - but it looks like finally winter will be arriving in the uk next week!

 

Posted Image

 

plenty in the low res 18z too

 

Posted Image

Very interesting what happen on the Continent ,how fast it can cool down,atm not that cold so it will be interesting come Sunday Monday to see if the low countries temps begin to drop away.

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Was asleep at the time of the thunderstorm last night, or at least at the start of it, judging by the noise it was pretty close by. Being woken up by loud thunder not pleasant, in the minutes that followed frequent bursts of light. Speaking to people in work, Llanelli and Port Talbot also saw some action.

There was more action over LLanelli than Swansea, however one close strike at 3am was one of the loudest cracks of thunder I've ever heard, it was certainly quite severe and torrential pea sized hail fell for a time too. Torrential thundery showers today too, something we expect in summer rather than winter!

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Fair dues pretty good weather forecast from weatheronline 12/1/14......18/1/14*
Temperatures continue to fall through this week. The winds turning more north to north-easterly. There is an increasing risk of sleet and snow across eastern and southern parts of the country. Scotland, Ireland and most of Wales and northwest England may stay cold but dry with some sunny spells.
Wintry conditions could persist in the south and east for a time. Daytime temperatures around 2 or 3C in southern England, 1 or 2C in Scotland with some very sharp overnight frosts.

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There was more action over LLanelli than Swansea, however one close strike at 3am was one of the loudest cracks of thunder I've ever heard, it was certainly quite severe and torrential pea sized hail fell for a time too. Torrential thundery showers today too, something we expect in summer rather than winter!

 

That must have been the one that woke me up. Posted Image

 

One thing about this spell is that it really has given some thunderstorms and some very heavy hail showers.

well well well - finally at last somewhere around tuesday/wednesday next week in the uk - potentially could see a good dumping of snow - no doubt the models will move the atlantic front west - east - west against the scandi high coming in from the north east - just details - but it looks like finally winter will be arriving in the uk next week!

 

Posted Image

 

plenty in the low res 18z too

 

Posted Image

 

Good to see a bit of ramping back, Posted Image

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Charts are looking better but we're long long way before being confident on any snow. If there are 10 steps to snow, we're on about step 2 or 3 now!

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3 days with thunder already in 2014, just 4 in the whole of 2013

Edited by TonyH

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Charts are looking better but we're long long way before being confident on any snow. If there are 10 steps to snow, we're on about step 2 or 3 now!

You can increase that to 7 Bobby perfect battleground rain/ snow event on Tuesday.Posted Image

Edited by keithlucky

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You can increase that to 7 Bobby perfect battleground rain/ snow event on Tuesday.Posted Image

indeed what a quick turnaround across all the models......as somebody once said...... its comingPosted Image

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UPGRADE UPGRADE 00z - Monday now - rain to snow event for Wales

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

America latest - temps have got so low in America that even "Hell" has frozen over LOL

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/the-storm-so-bad-even-hell-has-frozen-over-9044252.html

 

Cool car in Chicago

post-7852-0-67793400-1389180051_thumb.jp

Edited by andymusic

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Perhaps it's the relentless talk of an Easterly with an IMBY perspective in the model thread and the already endless speculation that this will be a short-lived cold snap, but I'm struggling to get excited.

 

Thus far, this winter has resembled the horror shows of the 97-08 period and I have a sinking feeling the Atlantic will soon break through.

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Perhaps it's the relentless talk of an Easterly with an IMBY perspective in the model thread and the already endless speculation that this will be a short-lived cold snap, but I'm struggling to get excited.

 

Thus far, this winter has resembled the horror shows of the 97-08 period and I have a sinking feeling the Atlantic will soon break through.

Ignore that IMBY - we have a good chance of some wintry precip come early next week from the under cutting low/s - they will always be more interested in the showers piling in from the east - I'm not sure it will be a short lived snap - something tells me winter will be here to stay for sometime once it arrives next week

 

RADAR - HERE COMES THE RAIN AGAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Edited by andymusic

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Perhaps it's the relentless talk of an Easterly with an IMBY perspective in the model thread and the already endless speculation that this will be a short-lived cold snap, but I'm struggling to get excited.

 

Thus far, this winter has resembled the horror shows of the 97-08 period and I have a sinking feeling the Atlantic will soon break through.

 

Personally if we get a few days of cold with some kind of snow event giving a covering that'll do me. More chances to come into February. I do think the Atlantic will make a fairly swift return though.

As for now, its raining again, who'd have thought? Could be a washout today with an inch or more of rain in places.

Posted Image

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