scotland Scotland Regional Weather Discussion 07/01/14

[Buriedundersnow]

its so good to come on here and everyone is back posting instead of me endlessly droning on about what might be coming

 

looking at the 0z's then I am not going past 144hr as would miss out the UKMO plus in a set up like this that is about the furthest we can look with any degree of certainty about the pattern.

 

now to me personally I think the UKMO looks to be the best purely for one reason and that's it looks best for the second ridge out the atlantic heading for Greenland as this I feel will be key to reinforcing the block the rest look a little messy around this area of course the GEM looks best for early cold but goes wrong

 

below ECM, GFS, GEM and UKMO

 

 

now of course it will probably be all change on the 12z's the great joy we have with models and have to put up with but this is what I thought of the 0z runs.

 

can also report a crisp clear morning with a frost for here.

[LomondSnowstorm]

EURO4 hinting at some Saturday snow:

 

12Zs will be interesting - more promising thicknesses than on most of the near misses we've seen this winter plus it's coming from the west.

[Buriedundersnow]

current 500hpa animation shows heights filling the arctic to our north

 

 

GFS anomalies also showing the cold air getting into Scandinavia with some purple anomalies turning up

 

Edited January 9, 2014 by Buriedundersnow

[Buriedundersnow]

for anyone looking to see the aurora tonight here is the cloud forecast for midnight

 

 

but on a good note no big storms in the Atlantic

 

 

while we wait for the white stuff it seems Tenerife has already seen some but its not snow just a big hailstorm

 

 

hopefully once our wait is over hopefully we will get enough snow we can all meet up and make one of these

 

 

from a good dose of sea effect snow like japan is currently seeing

 

 

and on another note that nobody seems to have picked up on this is the first day in the uk since the 1st of December where there hasn't been any weather warnings issued.

 

its been some journey but the end is here and please don't come back we've all had enough thanks.

 

 

[DR(S)NO]

WOW......thats a bit chilly!!

AMAZING PICS: Polar vortex turns Niagara Falls to ice

THE polar vortex has already frozen Hell and now it has turned one of the world's most famous waterfalls to ice.

FROZEN FALLS: Niagara Falls, one of the world's most famous natural landmarks, has been turned to ice by the polar vortex [REUTERS]

The record-breaking chill that has swept across North America has now frozen Niagara Falls solid.

[Buriedundersnow]

WOW......thats a bit chilly!!

AMAZING PICS: Polar vortex turns Niagara Falls to ice

THE polar vortex has already frozen Hell and now it has turned one of the world's most famous waterfalls to ice.

FROZEN FALLS: Niagara Falls, one of the world's most famous natural landmarks, has been turned to ice by the polar vortex [REUTERS]

The record-breaking chill that has swept across North America has now frozen Niagara Falls solid.

image.jpg

 

 

heres the link to live earthcam of the falls there starting to thaw now

 

http://www.earthcam.com/canada/niagarafalls/

[Hairy Celt]

BURP!!! I'm on my fourth hotdog, what's happening?

 

Someone's doing a bbq chez CMD tonight?

Edited January 9, 2014 by Hairy Celt

[Hairy Celt]

I'm still wondering around the fairground HC, if you haven't read the day's posts on the thread then you're going to be scratching your head a little

Oh ok, fairy snuff, been out counting midgets today, only just in. Bloody baltic it was near Kincraig.

[cscrim]

BURP!!! I'm on my fourth hotdog, what's happening?

In Yorkshire we have reports of flying dummiesLincolnshire have dummies and rattlesThe far south have rattles, dummies, the pram and baby being thrown around.Samaritans have opened extra phone lines for most of Englandshire by all accounts.

[Buriedundersnow]

and the ECM 12z shows why I'm a GOB person and why I have a slight preference on heights there over Scandinavia

 

 

on a brighter note from ECM as LS pointed out this morning the ECM ens upgraded this morning and so have the anomalies charts on the 0z which is what the CPC have been basing there predictions on for its high skill score over the last 60 days and I have found it quite solid lately out to day 10.

 

 

I will post the 12z when there out

Edited January 9, 2014 by Buriedundersnow

[Hairy Celt]

Aurorawatch says no significant activity yet and they're always right. Could be a long night for some.

[LomondSnowstorm]

I'd avoid the rollercoaster for a while to be honest - models as ever are doing their best to turn a standard undercut into another crazy ride. The latest ECM contrives to keep the Scandi high, keep low heights to our south yet somehow end up with one of the warmest easterlies in history:

It all comes from the models' collective inability to deal with this massive round low in the Atlantic, which it decides should just drift slowly southwards, weakening all the time until there's nothing left of it:

That low has ONE job - disrupt southeastwards. The only thing it has to do to usher in an easterly is go under the block, following the low that went before it and following the global NH west-east flow of air, and somehow the GFS and ECM decide that this time, it's going to sit there, glaikit, not even bothering to move.

I don't buy it frankly - either the high sinks or the low disrupts eastwards, and I think the latter is a lot more probable all things considered. So, in summary, get back to your hot dogs because there's no point looking too hard at something which isn't likely to be resolved for at least another 24 hours.

[Buriedundersnow]

Aurorawatch says no significant activity yet and they're always right. Could be a long night for some.

 

 

main showing time is between midnight and 3am so I've been told

[blitzen]

Well......says it all about the 12zs when even some of the  experts are stumped! IF ALL of the models appear to have been wrong yesterday, (odd) and ALL appear to have jumped ship today  (even more odd) God knows where we will be tomorrow!

Edited January 9, 2014 by Blitzen

[Buriedundersnow]

 

    

 

lets hope the GEFS is having a complete mare

[LomondSnowstorm]

Well......says it all about the 12zs when even some of the  experts are stumped! IF ALL of the models appear to have been wrong yesterday, (odd) and ALL appear to have jumped ship today  (even more odd) God knows where we will be tomorrow!

In fairness, they were all wrong the day before by a long way as well before flipping yesterday morning and then flipping again today, it's just flipping mental 

graphe3_1100___-3_6792452830188686_55_91093117408907_.gif

 

    

 

lets hope the GEFS is having a complete mare

There are at least 10 very different solutions within the 20 run suite by +144, including westerlies and one where the PV drops into Scandi with a GH giving us a massive northeasterly, so safe to say it isn't having the best of days

[Buriedundersnow]

Well......says it all about the 12zs when even some of the  experts are stumped! IF ALL of the models appear to have been wrong yesterday, (odd) and ALL appear to have jumped ship today  (even more odd) God knows where we will be tomorrow!

 

 

lets give the models there dues they do seem to be pretty spot on for just now so we will say FI +1hr

 

[blitzen]

lets give the models there dues they do seem to be pretty spot on for just now so we will say FI +1hr

 

eur_full_large.gif

Oh, ok then, I'll give you that. Don't push it at FI+2hrs though! The 12zs..........

Edited January 9, 2014 by Blitzen

[Buriedundersnow]

NASA Earth â€@NASA_EO 7m

MT @noaaclimate: See how a wobbly #polarvortex triggered the recent #cold outbreak. http://go.usa.gov/ZdM5  pic.twitter.com/8obYpXQHsp

 

 

goes to show how much the vortex has fallen apart lately just hope we see it obliterated soon

 

 

 

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

PV (around the -50 to -65 mark) is covering the whole of the UK at the end of the run. Does this mean anything???

[Cheggers]

Evening all, back to the wilds of Denny for a few days, nice and chilly at Edinburgh. 4c on the drive hame. Nice clear night, but hop the moon does one before midnight of there is to be a light show.

[Buriedundersnow]

Evening all, back to the wilds of Denny for a few days, nice and chilly at Edinburgh. 4c on the drive hame. Nice clear night, but hop the moon does one before midnight of there is to be a light show.

 

 

here its live feed to where the aurora is it updates automatically every 30 seconds

 

http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation/North_New.html

[Buriedundersnow]

it might not beat the cloud that's incoming from the west though

 

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

 

always seems to be the case don't it

[Highland Snow]

it might not beat the cloud that's incoming from the west though

 

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

 

always seems to be the case don't it

You're not kidding BUS, I will have to find a more reliable (and warmer) hobby than astronomy!

[Cheggers]

According to the forecast map BUS Iceland a good bet to see, but not seeing anything. Some good cams here as well.

http://www.livefromiceland.is/webcams/thingvellir/