scotland Scotland Regional Weather Discussion 07/01/14

[Northernlights]

Nice starry night. All cats appeared this evening to get into house for a warmth top up for the first time in weeks so model concensus is complete. Bird feeders finally getting emptied faster too. Currently 2.9c

[lorenzo]

Nice starry night. All cats appeared this evening to get into house for a warmth top up for the first time in weeks so model concensus is complete. Bird feeders finally getting emptied faster too. Currently 2.9c

 

Keep an eye out for aurora from that monster X Flare too.. http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation/

 

 

 

 

Pub run not as spectacular and direct as the magical ECM 12z, the tortuous ebb and flow of blocking and jet modelling..! However it is still bloody cold and that ridge wants to retrogress.

 

Totally shredded Jet patterns at same timeframe from 12z - 18z, apparently identical, minute differences in modelling of this lead to different pace on that trigger low.

 

 

ECM rapid, GFS slower.

 

Would have been nice to get a winning Euromillions pub run to finish off the day, however, quite happy to settle for the lotto win from today's models. A Good day !

[Buriedundersnow]

I'm not too worried about the 18z tonight about 90% of its runs have been fairly crap compared to the other GFS runs this winter in both set ups tomorrow morning will tell more.

[Buriedundersnow]

ECM anomalies charts are keeping high pressure to our north out to day 10 and this is what the CPC have been basing there outlooks on

 

[lorenzo]

There is not a whole lot between the GFS models at present when reviewing the verification figures.

 

Day 5 pub run in the lead for the GFS.

 

Day 6 the 12z / 18z on a par , surprising to see the pub run leading the morning run, 06z showing it's crazy inclinations.

 

re - pub run, GFS best verifying model also at 10 days out..

 

With respect to what the ECM showed this evening this skill score is the most important one of the evening, and under interesting test conditions into next week.

 

Hell, that's the small print the MJO analog pulled through the split shredded the jet. Fantastic model output everywhere -  What's not to love.

 

GFS still loves a shortwave...

 

 

 

[Buriedundersnow]

that's surprising about the GFS 18z verification cos to me it hasn't seemed that good overall just goes to show though.

[lorenzo]

Last one 'til the morn, would love this to verify, just to watch the lake effect North Sea stuff on satellite..

 

Proper cold.

 

The anomaly chart really shows why it's called the Beast from the East..!

 

 

 

[LomondSnowstorm]

Last one 'til the morn, would love this to verify, just to watch the lake effect North Sea stuff on satellite..

 

Proper cold.

ecm_t850_uv_eur_8.pngecm_t850_uv_eur_9.png

 

The anomaly chart really shows why it's called the Beast from the East..!

ecm_t850_anom_eur_9.png

 

I'm pretty pleased with it all really, strange just how far northwest the pattern has drifted which is counterintuitive since it usually seems to go south with easterlies and east with blocking setups. Hopefully it either holds or makes slight southward adjustments (or at least just have some sensibly modelled trough disruption which the GFS seems incapable of) between now and verification.

PS: if you look on the MT you'll see Ian F and Snowballz effectively hinting that there's an SSW in the offing from their GloSEA5 - caps off about as good a day's model watching as you will ever get. Now all we need is it to verify!

Edited January 9, 2014 by LomondSnowstorm

[GraemeB]

Nathan Rao needs to get better sources - the infamous Mr P from vantage is quoted in today's Express as

 

“Cold air from the east is going to sweep in meeting the milder air from the west currently keeping temperatures above average.“Depending on how this battle plays out we are likely to see a dramatic change in the weather with temperatures plunging bringing widespread snow, ice and frost.“The entire country could see wintry showers, with central and eastern parts most at risk, and this could shape up to be a very severe winter snap.“Depending on the stubborn nature of the high pressure the entire country could shiver for weeks in a severe bitter winter blast.â€

 

Well, Mr P, which is it ?

 

Beast from the East, or as you said YESTERDAY, Hell from the West.....

 

<sigh>  no wonder the British public can't get a grip on the weather.

[over_the_rainbow]

Proper ice on the car this morning - not had that for a bit! 

 

Not sure if I'm up to the MT thread this morning yet! 

[Ravelin]

An overnight low of -1.2C here so a bit of frost around first thing but not much. I got away with not having to scrape the car as by the time I left the house at 8am the temp was already up to around 3C. The car also sits quite close up beside the house which helps. Plenty of blue sky showing so we should see the sun when it gets high enough.

 

I wonder what the models will show today? More of the cold theme, or a backtrack and MO thread implosion? Off for a look as either way it's exciting....

[mistyqueen]

Morning Kilties! Temps defo on the way doon.....down to 3.5 last night. A wee bit to go before we hit the magic minus numbers though, but at least we're going in the right direction! As before, I won't get my hopes up only to be let down. Think I'll have a wee wander intae the Model thread, just tae see who's ready tae blaw a gasket or three!

[blitzen]

Well, with what I can decipher this morning on the MOD .......UKMO just out (very late) and is not keen on bringing in the really cold air as the low tries to go go straight through at 120 (no undercut) but appears to try again at 144 so watch this space.   GFS/ECM brings in cold air for N England northwards but not for the southerners so they are not as happy this morning.   GEM apparently is another peach of a run from as early as T120. Ensembles are a really mixed bag but the mean ECM run (just going by comments) is apparently a snow-fest. So..........Morning folks!

Edited January 9, 2014 by Blitzen

[Ravelin]

Blitzen, that's pretty much how I would have summed it up too (after reading the thread but not actually having gone through the models myself). Basically it's still looking OK, but not necessarily spectacular. After the big advances towards cold the models made over the last day or two it was sort of inevitable that there'd be some 'wobbles'. Which way those 'wobbles' ultimately lead is yet to be determined.

[mardatha]

Blitzen,  great post ! I only understood the last 3 words of it. But they were very good! lol

[SW Saltire]

Blitzen, that's pretty much how I would have summed it up too (after reading the thread but not actually having gone through the models myself). Basically it's still looking OK, but not necessarily spectacular. After the big advances towards cold the models made over the last day or two it was sort of inevitable that there'd be some 'wobbles'. Which way those 'wobbles' ultimately lead is yet to be determined

Depends on where you live really. This thread should almost be happier with today's output as we have a higher chance of trough disruption nearer to us and therefore the chance for significant snow where the uppers are most suitable. Today's output has greater longevity than the quick blast of easterly winds would have done. Of course after 3:30pm today, it will all have changed. For better or for worse...

[LomondSnowstorm]

They all basically support the undercut as far as I can make out - just a few favour the slower, potentially more rewarding but also more high risk option. As I said, at some point the pattern will get shunted southwards, usually at pretty short range, so having the coldest air initially just slightly further north works for me. UKMO brings in a battleground intially with -4C uppers and southerly winds which could signal decent frontal snow (could be some of that Saturday as well and also Monday but this needs to be determined closer to the time). Nothing's really changed and the ECM Ens have upgraded, presumably because some of the rush which went very wrong very early have left the scene as that option became near impossible, so almost all are at least toying with a proper undercut.

Let's see where we are by the 12Zs

[LomondSnowstorm]

The best advice today is don't get hung up on the blow by blow detail of every shred of output. Take a couple of steps back and look at the big picture. Strong indications of blocking to the north at 8 to 10 days:

 

9th Jan 00z ECM GFS 8 to 10 Day Mean.gif8th Jan CPC.gif

 

Compare the ECM GFS 8 to 10 day chart above with this one from the 16th of Dec, which was the forecast for around Xmas:

 

16th Dec ECM GFS 8 to 10 Day Mean.gif

 

Huge differences between the two

 

This is not to say that anything is nailded on, it isn't, but it might be an idea to stay off the rollercoaster and go for a hotdog at the moment?

Good call, although maybe wait a while before you go back on again or things could get pretty messy...

[NUT]

Can't believe it. It's almost clear blue skies here today! There's something I not said in a long time!

[Cheggers]

Nice mainly blue skies down here as well, and looks like a nice flight back will be had. Aurora looking good for a display tonight.

[jon_d1983]

It has turned out to be an utterly glorious day today. Wall to wall blue skies and the big shiny thing is burning away nicely. Mrs Catch passed comment that it was nice to see the sun after all the weeks of cloud and "endless torrential rain". I've checked the Met-O maps for Dec 2013 and this area looks to have had about 100mm of rain at most in that month. Kilmacolm had about 300mm of rain and parts further north-west had up to 500mm. I think I need to move Mrs Catch back out west for one winter, to let her see what "endless torrential rain" is all about

 

Get the deckchairs out, summer is upon us

 

That is one thing i dont miss about the west coast....enless rainy days! although kilmacolm was always good for a pasting of snow

[snowy owl]

Lovely day but now getting quite windy here.

 

All my windows washed inside and out in readiness for some _ _ _ _ . I'm not jinxing anything so i'll leave the word to your imagination lol but suffice to say its cold and white and falls from the sky (just in case you were wondering )

[snowy owl]

Catch - you'd be surprised what happens here in the east lol!

[Cheggers]

Some good live cams for Northern light viewing

 

http://www.auroraspy.co.uk/index.php/live-aurora-cams

[mistyqueen]

Nice mainly blue skies down here as well, and looks like a nice flight back will be had. Aurora looking good for a display tonight.

 

Likewise here Cheggers. Can't believe what a beautiful day we have here, been a while since I've seen that much blue sky! No sn*w forecast for my area, but I'll be happy with blue sky and sunshine! Aurora display tonight by all accounts. We rarely see that on my side of the island, so here' s hoping!