scotland Scotland Regional Weather Discussion 07/01/14

[lorenzo]

Some exciting looking weather charts lining up now as a full on battle between the Scandi Block and the Atlantic is within the 5-6 day range. Fascinating synoptics and the Scandi block is an absolute dream to watch on satellite.

 

Really is a weather wonder watching all the Atlantic throws at it dissolve and decay.

 

Sort of weather related, this political rammy created a gem of a shipping forecast. Laugh out loud funny..

 

https://soundcloud.com/nicholas-pegg/ukip-shipping-forecast

 

..and another funny..

 

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=707940995901616

Edited January 20, 2014 by lorenzo

[DR(S)NO]

I looked at the METO long term outlook and there is nothing on the horizon other than marginal snow for upland areas. It's definately time to accept that this winter aint going to deliver diddly. The saving grace being above 2000ft the ski centres are doing ok.

Never say never November 13........,Remember these??

[Northernlights]

Hi Lorenzo

Video of what is called a bunny is actually a hare. It has been almost completely blinded by the lights of the vehicle and is trying to move away from them. The best thing in this situation is for the vehicle to stop switch off its lights and the hare will then see its way into the bank/field otherwise its going to be minced hare when a vehicle approaches from the opposite direction. Written on behalf of the hare appreciation society. Not really just country lover who has seen the death toll of hares increase on the road over the years as numbers decline on farmland due to various diseases that afflict them, intensive agriculture and an increasing numbers of predators.

Edited January 20, 2014 by Northernlights

[November13]

Never say never November 13........,Remember these??

image.jpg

image.jpgimage.jpg

Yeh but the way this winter has gone I am trying not to build my hopes up. Anything at all 2 inches of snow would be a bonus in February.

[November13]

Local weather average for December was 6.9 - normal average 4c

January so far 5.4c - normal 2.5c

I expect Jan will end up being about 5c so the average for my winter so far is 2.5c warmer than average which is incredibly mild.

[snowy owl]

Well not a bad day here.  Bright and dry. Bit icy this morning but all in all a grand day.

 

Tomorrow not looking so good.

 

Eldest child off to school camp so she is reporting now from much further north! Hope they don't get rained on too much!

[101_North]

Looks like I might get a wee taste of winter in Germany this week after all:

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2950159

[Buriedundersnow]

really don't know what to make of the models this morning with the GFS looking to keep the block over scandi but its on its own we will just need to wait and see if it is right

 

heres the 4 models at 144hr to compare

 

ECM,UKMO,GEM,GFS

 

 

they all have similarities but the GFS is on its own with holding the core of the scandi block further north plus GEM ends with this which is same idea of ECM with the two highs in atlantic with the feed of PV energy and an arctic high as well

 

 

now this mornings ECM and again its going with the general pattern and again it looks out of kilter with what 12z is showing as the 12z is closer to the GEM above but that can wait to be sorted out later here is the 240hr chart with some paint and I don't think I have to explain the arrows now as its the same pattern

 

 

now if we move onto the ECM mean 500 anomalies charts and they still show a continuation of what they were showing last night with the separation of PV energy and where the space would be left for an attempt at ridging toward Greenland and it does take a slight move forward moving the energy left over Canada further west which would aid in any ridging for Greenland from the atlantic.

 

 

here I have the day 10 ECM 100hpa strat chart which shows the feed of energy east from the PV I have put red crosses on the pieces of PV and it has this over scandi and isn't showing any blocking so again GFS on its own here and the strat charts are backing the ECM

 

 

now we cant discount the GFS as it may be right we never know till 0hr but it does seem to be on its own just now and might also be the worst solution as we have see plenty of times scandi heights can be hard to get cold from as December 2012 showed us and lately we can be left on the edge in no mans land and with other signs pointing toward Greenland personally for me I feel this is the best solution as its easier to get the cold in.

 

anyway its all pointless just now the main thing is we have more than one cold solution showing which is great to have so we have fall back plans and the coming time should be pretty exciting but finger chewing model watching but would we have it any other way.

[Buriedundersnow]

couple of things found on twitter

 

current satellite image

 

 

day 8 GFS snowfall totals

 

 

EDIT: also tonight on BBC2 20:30-21:30 winterwatch is a review of our winter weather so far and what we may see moving forward might be worth a watch

Edited January 20, 2014 by Buriedundersnow

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

For a wee laugh.

 

Following on from this story...

 

http://www.buzzfeed.com/scottybryan/a-ukip-councillor-blamed-the-weather-on-the-gay-marriage-bil

 

A UKIP Councillor Blamed The Weather On Gay Marriage - And The Internet Reacted Beautifully

 

We now have a new source for weather forecasting, tips etc.

 

 

 

 

UkipWeather

@UkipWeather

@UpikTips

 

UkipWeather â€@UkipWeather  3 hrs

A period of calm as a group of women go shopping for shoes. However, storm clouds will form when one of them suggests going to Millets

Expand

 

UkipWeather â€@UkipWeather  4 hrs

David Silvester has started to question his faith following the appearance of a rainbow over Henley-on-Thames

Expand

 

 

 

I'm trying to think how we pee off the big man upstairs enough to bring on raging blizzards. I'm sure HC could come up with some ideas.

Edited January 20, 2014 by scottish skier

[Benvironment]

Local weather average for December was 6.9 - normal average 4cJanuary so far 5.4c - normal 2.5cI expect Jan will end up being about 5c so the average for my winter so far is 2.5c warmer than average which is incredibly mild.

 

Always interesting seeing other folks' stats.  I've done something similar today for this and the last four winters: http://benvironment.org.uk/post/73947604011/wheres-winter-precious-we-wants-it

 

I started out writing it as simple data analysis but perhaps unsurprisingly it turned into a bit of a tantrum, a bit of a whinge, and a bit of dreaming about winters past ;-)

[Buriedundersnow]

UKMO 12z has come toward the ECM although no matter what you read in the MT this model was always following the ECM more than the GFS

 

 

GFS 12z has also come along to the ECM as well which in short term has taken away the easterly option but like shown in both ECM and UKMO could open us up to colder incursions from the west and the easterly option will come back with time

 

 

I know we were wanting the easterly just now but we may get a better hit soon and if things fall into place right we could see a pretty special spell of weather for February

 

[Buriedundersnow]

ECM 12z still moving along with the pattern although I fear it might have been a little fast tonight on the op I was expecting to see the ridge start to take shape today but not to that extent so will wait for tomorrows runs to see where we stand.

 

below is the 12z 192hr,216hr,240hr and I have circled the low an the US east coast and I think this is too fast and too big and not entirely sure it should be there but it is so will comment on it incase its there in future runs and I feel it is too fast and too deep but we have seen ECM do this all winter over blowing lows coming up the US east coast remember I pointed this out with the piece of PV a few days ago and it calmed this down well I would expect the same here and possibly a little more west than shown in the run

 

 

below is the ECM 12z mean anomalies charts and here we see where the op seems to be so quick as this is only just looking to work toward developing the ridge as I have pointed out in the 240hr chart where the energy over Greenland is just separating to allow the ridge.

 

 

so overall the op is showing us the route forward but just a little quick towards the end of the run and we should see this corrected tomorrow but we seem to be in a good position moving forward

 

would also add with the GFS coming towards this today with UKMO looking to follow and GEM and JMA hinting towards this as well this is where we need to look going on

[Polar Side]

Good post BUS, things starting to look a bit more interesting !

Some really good posts on the model thread tonight once the doom merchants or toy throwers had left the thread.

 

Really hope winter turns up soon though, as there is nothing better than reading this thread when the snow starts to fall and members from all over the country start to give reports of their local conditions and accumulated depths etc.  Have really missed that this year.

Here's hoping that things are starting to take a turn for the better !

[Polar Gael]

Have just wandered into the MOD thread....

 

 

 

*coughs*

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Benvironment]

Ooo, did anyone see John Hammond just now when he said the word 'winter' on his forecast?  Don't think he's very impressed with it either

 

[Northernlights]

Well according to Cairngorm Mountain on their Facebook page snow depths are approaching 2010 levels and the funicular tunnel and track are having to be dug out on a regular basis. No snow famine up there

[Hairy Celt]

Well according to Cairngorm Mountain on their Facebook page snow depths are approaching 2010 levels and the funicular tunnel and track are having to be dug out on a regular basis. No snow famine up there

Isn't that just because the tunnel entrance is shaped so the snow just gets sucked in?  There may be lots of snow there anyway.

[Buriedundersnow]

I know its not weather but saw this on twitter

 

SPACE.com â€@SPACEdotcom 14m

Mystery Rock 'Appears' in Front of Mars Opportunity Rover http://oak.ctx.ly/r/n2a7  pic.twitter.com/ycTvaFo9wF

 

 

they give explanations but you have to wonder if its someone up there saying to there mate watch this we will really screw with them

 

 

[LomondSnowstorm]

Apologies (and this is as much for me as for you guys) for not having been on much again lately, been pretty busy lately with coursework, political campaigning, piping and, most critically of all, drinking

Anyway, and again apologies for the laziness (it is half one in the morning) here's a post I did earlier, maybe 15 minutes earlier, on the MT, which basically highlights why we're in a decent place at the moment. The really great thing is that it doesn't mention the strat, which is also likely to help us out longer term (not the not mentioning it bit as though it's voldemort, just the strat in general).

The main difference between any projected cold from here and the FI charts the ECM has occasionally churned out is that we actually do (in spite of the pessimism and constant talk of dominant zonality) have a block in situ:

Whereas before we were looking for some kind of height rise to our north to stop the Atlantic train, we're at least in with a shot of seeing some colder air being advected our way in the next few days, particularly because, while they're often very fickle in their evolution, Scandi highs are also more difficult to shift than the modelling tends to suggest. I don't know how many times Steve has posted similar charts over the years with a D7 zonal GFS chart turning into something at least a bit more amplified closer to the time but it happens frequently, and even moreso when we don't actually need massive changes to get to a colder setup.

The amazing thing is that there's now more snow potential at +72 than there was in a good number of the GEFS FI perturbation charts that kept some of the more optimistic cold watchers' spirits up. It may not be a full blown easterly, but we do have a trough disrupting under a block with some Polar Maritime air meeting the proper cold sitting tantalisingly close over Norway, bringing it even closer and perhaps even reaching the east coast for a time. This is likely to bring some kind of snowfall event, and believe it or not it might be the first proper low ground snowfall of the winter even here in Scotland (it's hardly been a brilliant winter for snow lovers up here either as a visit to our regional thread will confirm).

The bit that's throwing some people is the 'return to mild' - yes, after some decent resistance it does look likely that the next low will be that bit too powerful to hold west of the meridian, but the troughing is sufficiently 'vertical' to advect a very decent amount of WAA (albeit some of it will be flying directly over our heads) up into the Arctic, where the next piece of the puzzle comes into play - the Arctic high:

At a minimum, what this, along with the remains of the Scandi high, does, is force the jet southwards on a NW-SE tilt and bring in some more Polar Maritime air, with the risk of at least some below average temperatures and wintriness for northern and western parts:

At best, with a bit of help from just a bit more amplification upstream, our Azores high will become our best friend, pumping WAA into Southern Greenland and bringing the snowmaggedon big style:

Whereas two or three weeks ago we needed a huge number of things to go right to get any meaningful snow and cold, now we only need maybe one or two additional shoves in the right direction. The pieces to the jigsaw are all there, quite clear to see, and there are even a number of plausible ways to put them together. Short range - somewhat below average temperature-wise with the chance of some snow before turning a bit milder again by the weekend.

Longer term - up for grabs, but far, far more promising than anything we've seen in the entire winter to date. The MO obviously won't start shouting about snowmaggedon at this stage or, to be fair, ever, they're professional forecasters and it would be pretty irresponsible of them to do so at this range even if we had 100% model support for the beast to end all beasterlies at D6. But there are mentions of cold and even wintriness in both the short and longer range outlook. At this range, that's fine, and at least shows that the models we don't have access to are at least not entirely dismissive of a colder outlook. The rest, as Ian says, is as much fair game for them as for us, but with the added bonus that we aren't responsible for anyone other than our own and maybe our family's disappointment when the big snowfall doesn't come off as planned.

 

The EURO4 is now giving us access to all the charts the NAE does so it looks like the end of an era for the old 'NAE-use'. I'll be hopefully doing some summaries in the coming days, especially with this Thursday potential (looks transitory but potentially quite potent, albeit ground conditions might be a bit soggy for any immediate lying at low levels).

Here's the Wednesday 6pm 950hpa chart:

Not exactly inspiring but the main interest at the moment looks like Thursday lunchtime onwards anyway, so by tomorrow evening we should have the first properly extensive EURO4 guidance on a potential snow event.
If that JMA comes off by the way I'll have missed the boat on the whole 'beast from the east' forecast by a whole 72 hours:

Get set folks, it's coming, or more accurately it's alright kind of here.

LS

[mistyqueen]

Morning peeps! Gosh, it's so dark this morning! Temp at 5c, dry, windy pressure 1001. So, winter next week then?

[November13]

BBC weather man seemed fairly confident the mild would push the cold back East last night!

[Ravelin]

Well according to Cairngorm Mountain on their Facebook page snow depths are approaching 2010 levels and the funicular tunnel and track are having to be dug out on a regular basis. No snow famine up there

Yet the lower slopes are broken and you can't ski back to the car park by the sounds of it. Seems to be the same elsewhere i.e. the lower slopes are poor but there's some deep snow higher up. Good East/West split too with Nevis and Glencoe doing really well, Cairngorm not doing too badly (probably because of it's elevation), Glenshee looking passable and poor old Lecht almost completely bare (not sure if they've actually managed any skiing at all yet). Need a good countrywide dump of snow, at least at above 4-500m if we can't get it at low level, to freshen up the ski resorts. Maybe the storm forecast for Sun/Mon may do that.

 

Here the temperature this morning at 8:30am was sat at 5.2C (dropped off to -0.5C yesterday evening around 18:30 with stuff starting to ice up but by 20:00 it was back up to 1.8C and rising). Bit of a breeze and lots of grey/white cloud around so no sun. Dry though.

[spindrift1980]

I think the Lecht opened briefly in December and again just after New Year - the weather is really conspiring against it this winter!  It's just as well they've diversified into mountain biking and other activities. 

[Highland Snow]

Sunday storm?