scotland Scotland Regional Weather Discussion 07/01/14

[Hairy Celt]

Aye this Winter is doomed I tell you doomed!

 

The end is nigh!

 

[Highland Snow]

The end is nigh!

 

the end.jpg

Aye when it goes from pictures of snawmageddon to pictures of The Four Horsemen of The Apocalypse and Armageddon we've had it!

[Highland Snow]

So cold in Lapland (-36C) that at the Levi ski resort no-one is venturing out!

 

[November13]

Yes its pretty grim when you are into the last week of January and still no snow event.Unfortunately we got stuck in a trough of mild weather this year and winter couldn't get in.

[mistyqueen]

Afternoon peeps! A quietish day here, slightly brighter than of late, at least we don't have rain! Defo a touch o' blue sky oot there....but I'm not going to get overexcited about it. It'll probably be back to the murk by tomorrow!

[GulberwickWeather]

Pretty wild here today but then it's been like that for the last 6 days! Top gust today is 63mph. Steady wind speed currently 38mph.

Edited January 19, 2014 by Shetland Coastie

[Buriedundersnow]

this mornings ECM 0z wasn't what I was hoping for but wasn't unexpected either and we shouldn't look too much into it and see how we go as I think it is over blowing the PV over Canada and it did this previously this winter as well for it to dull down as it moved forward so that's where we have to watch but it still has the two highs present for the second ridge and if we remember back to the anomalies charts the second ridge realistically shouldn't come into the model for another 2 days so to have the highs there and having a hint last night to this as well is a good sign for that

 

 

now we move on to the mean 500 anomalies charts and these still look ok and if we notice the 240hr one we see the separation of energy over Canada and a feed heading for us with a little left behind which would tie in well with what I am looking for and once this has happened the ridge should go north after

 

 

now the 850's 240hr and we still have our cold pool to the north east and also note the big bank of cold air coming out of Canada with the transfer of energy that is the one of the biggest pushes of cold air we have seen this winter and if it came of similar to that we would more than likely be looking at snow from the west

 

 

now a little strat chart I wanted to pop in this is day 10 zonal wind and we can see the big blob of blue in the bottom right corner which is a reversal of zonal winds which is present from day 7 and can hopefully be built on

 

 

and also when we have GEM putting out charts like this at 240hr then there must be something in the pattern

 

 

there will be some wobbles with the models but I stand that the pattern should be good and I still think we will have a better go at something cold and snowy this time compared to the last two attempts that didn't quite hit but it should be easier now there is a lot of energy been taken out of the equation.

Edited January 19, 2014 by Buriedundersnow

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

this mornings ECM 0z wasn't what I was hoping for but wasn't unexpected either and we shouldn't look too much into it and see how we go as I think it is over blowing the PV over Canada and it did this previously this winter as well for it to dull down as it moved forward so that's where we have to watch but it still has the two highs present for the second ridge and if we remember back to the anomalies charts the second ridge realistically shouldn't come into the model for another 2 days so to have the highs there and having a hint last night to this as well is a good sign for that

 

ECH1-240.gif

 

now we move on to the anomalies chart and these still look ok and if we notice the 240hr one we see the separation of energy over Canada and a feed heading for us with a little left behind which would tie in well with what I am looking for and once this has happened the ridge should go north after

 

EDH101-192.gifEDH101-216.gifEDH101-240.gif

 

now the 850's 240hr and we still have our cold pool to the north east and also note the big bank of cold air coming out of Canada with the transfer of energy that is the one of the biggest pushes of cold air we have seen this winter and if it came of similar to that we would more than likely be looking at snow from the west

 

ECH0-240.gif

 

now a little strat chart I wanted to pop in this is day 10 zonal wind and we can see the big blob of blue in the bottom right corner which is a reversal of zonal winds which is present from day 6 and can hopefully be built on

 

ecmwfzm_u_f240.gif

 

and also when we have GEM putting out charts like this at 240hr then there must be something in the pattern

 

gemnh-0-240.png

 

there will be some wobbles with the models but I stand that the pattern should be good and I still think we will have a better go at something cold and snowy this time compared to the last two attempts that didn't quite hit but it should be easier now there is a lot of energy been taken out of the equation.

Seems good to me, let's hope this works out!! PLEASE!

[Highland Snow]

I hope this is not in a "snow parking zone" - a snow sculpture after the December blizzard in Israel:

 

[Northernlights]

Sorted a couple of holes in a stone dyke this afternoon next to a wood and was struck by the different wind direction which was SE.We have been used to a SW wind for so long that the change to cloud and wind coming from the SE reminds me of the years before the internet and forward forecasting models when a change like this this would make you think of an eventual east wind with colder frosty conditions.To even get as far as this SE flow there have already been changes to the Atlantic driven weather

Edited January 19, 2014 by Northernlights

[Hairy Celt]

Yes its pretty grim when you are into the last week of January and still no snow event.Unfortunately we got stuck in a trough of mild weather this year and winter couldn't get in.

I wonder how much of the piste is floodlit, and till what time. The carpark's nearly empty too. I don't think Finland's got leccy to throw away either.

[Cheggers]

At last an evening without rain..... well almost had a wee shower while oot for a wee walk across the road at Denny Reservoir.

 

Had a top temp of 7c today with little wind, after a crap Saturday and minging morning. Back to the old smoke next week just in time for the next wet and wild onslaught.

Edited January 19, 2014 by Cheggers

[howham]

A ghastly wet and grey weekend.

[GulberwickWeather]

Well it's still blowing a hooly up here! Gusting in excess of 50kts  and averaging 38-39 kts.

[Buriedundersnow]

ECM 12z has continued along with the same overall pattern and has gone with my thoughts yesterday that we will see a lot of the energy from Canada transfer over to our side which would do us very nicely as it would free up Greenland for the next ridge and although it isn't present yet I think we will start to see it appear in the model tomorrow should it continue with the pattern.

 

below I have the ECM 12z 240hr chart and I have done a little paint again

 

BLACK ARROWS = the two highs where the next ridge will come from

 

RED ARROWS = where the energy from the PV is splitting and going

 

YELLOW ARROW = where the ridge will go where the PV energy separates

 

 

as you can see its looking fairly good and once the energy seperates and allows the ridge to build the high in the atlantic should retrogress west and reach out for the arctic high through Greenland and we should be left with the trough to our east and pulling in winds from a north or north east direction.

 

you can also see this evident in the ECM mean 500 anomalies charts below and again I have done a little paint

 

YELLOW ARROWS = the separation of energy after the transfer

 

BLACK ARROW = where the ridge will build

 

 

as you can see there is pretty good agreement with the op here

 

also we have the updated NCEP 500 charts and I have put a red line in the 8-14 day chart to show where the ridge will appear as the energy separates and I think we should hopefully see this start to happen in these charts tomorrow

 

 

it looks like the ECM is coming along nicely and if it is right then we could be on the path to cold and snow but as ever will need to be watch closely over the coming days

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Sleet here currently. Wasn't expecting anything.

[November13]

Yeh I thought I saw sleetvon west Scotland web cams.Glad I wasn't hallucinating!

[Ravelin]

BUS I hope you are right as we really need something colder and snowier to cheer us up.

It's been a thoroughly miserable weekend weather wise here. Started raining around lunchtime on Saturday and didn't stop until an hour or two ago. 8.2mm of rain yesterday followed by 16.2mm today. Not huge by the standards of a lot of places but fairly wet for here. At least the temperature has finally dropped to 3.1C after sitting at around 6/7C for the last 2 days.

[Buriedundersnow]

BUS I hope you are right as we really need something colder and snowier to cheer us up.

 

 

tell me about it lol.

 

I still think we will have a better chance this time its just gonna be the usual of waiting for each thing to fall into place one at a time first the Aleutian ridge to put the arctic high in place then the transfer of the PV over to our side and I feel this is going to be the key part as if we can do that then it should mean less fuel for the jet and better chance of ridging.

 

I even think if we fall unlucky and miss out this time we will get another shot coming along soon after as the last shot and how this one is being modelled look near the same just this one has a bit more poke to it than last time I think this means the hemispheric pattern change is locked in and we are in a sort of rinse and repeat cycle waiting for enough energy to leave the system which was there due to a very strong polar vortex to allow the ridging to take hold.

 

like I said though if we can get the arctic high in place that's the first and biggest step forward to get a block at high latitudes then its all up to the PV transfer but if the ECM is correct then it took a decent step forward with that today and with the 500 anomalies charts seeming to back it up and the CPC going along with it then we are in a decent starting place.

 

only time will tell the truth though.

[Hawesy]

Air frost for a few last night: http://www.met.rdg.ac.uk/~brugge/amextremes.html 

 

-1.2c at Leuchars, min was +1c here in Crail. Beautiful sunny morning, quite a contrast to yesterday.

 

Models point to a coolish and unsettled week ahead. GFS 0z keeps 850s in the 0c to -6c range through 180 hours here.

[November13]

I looked at the METO long term outlook and there is nothing on the horizon other than marginal snow for upland areas. It's definately time to accept that this winter aint going to deliver diddly. The saving grace being above 2000ft the ski centres are doing ok.

[Altered Carbon]

Both the ECM and GFS are throwing us a storm this time next week, and for the time being the uppers look cold enough for (wait for it....) SNOW!!!

 

I'll believe it when I've got some in my hand!

[Northernlights]

Frosty first thing this morning at 0c currently 4.7c with a fresh S wind so does not feel warm outside.

[Blizzardo]

Don't give up hope guys if you're looking for cold and snow. The pattern finally looks like it could be shifting and the charts this morning have bags of potential.

[Ravelin]

Well we had an overnight low of...wait for it... -0.2C so a bit of ice around after all of the weekends rain. By 9am the temperature was up to around 2C and overhead it's a mix of broken cloud, the odd sighting of the sun but also the occasional shower of rain. Still infinitely better that what the weekend delivered (river Don still running quite high this morning).