scotland Scotland Regional Weather Discussion 07/01/14

[Buriedundersnow]

some pretty big thunderstorms today at the Australian open as a cold front pushes through to give some relief from the heat wave

 

 

also an intense hailstorm in Lisbon which left things looking more like Scotland with a big Greenland high in place

 

[Northernlights]

Cold, dank, misty,overcast November type morning here at 2c with some ice in the prone spots.

 

 Just for information cattle and sheep were all dancing about yesterday so maybe a week from stormy weather of some kind.

 

 And the icing on the cake supermarket models say snow as they all   have just put out snow shovels and salt at their entrances in the last week.   (GP Forecast?)

[blitzen]

Overnight low of 3c which has risen to 3.6c/3.3c/ENE. Stlll dry however, but very dark.

[mardatha]

I seriously canny take any mair. really. Nevermind the snaw shovels Catch, I  might sacrfice the husband, maybe that will work....

[Benvironment]

Ugh, I have to admit that for the first time in living memory I am actually looking forward to Spring.

[Hawesy]

Dreich here too today. Not had much rain at all of late but there's light rain on just now. 6.2c. SEly wind freshening.

[mardatha]

Pelting doon here.

[mistyqueen]

Dreich here too today. Not had much rain at all of late but there's light rain on just now. 6.2c. SEly wind freshening.

 

Ditto here, temp at 7.5 and rising. Gettin' a tad fed up wi' this endless murk. We had a wee touch o' sunshine during the week there, got a bit excited, and now we're back to this endless drivel. Everyone start doing an Ice/Frost Dance please. It may work, but if ye dinnae dae it ye'll never know!

[Ravelin]

6.9C here currently and after a brightish morning the band of rain has moved in just in time for the eldest boys football match. Time to don the full waterproofs and go watch (the dog is going to hate me as although she doesn't object to walking in the rain she hates hanging around in it).

[Hairy Celt]

Back down south to the bright lights dull murk of the Black Isle... foggy last night, just dreary & chilly today.  Quite a chorus here now, perhaps we should all sing a song, light a fire, etc. (Any spot the quote?)

[Ravelin]

Quiet on here. Well that could have been worse. Comfortable 4-0 win for the lads and the rain wasn't too bad (2.0mm in the time we were out). I've certainly stood around in heavier and at 7.5C with virtually no wind it didn't feel cold either.

[Buriedundersnow]

GFS today seems to have dropped the idea shown but I am not too bothered as it has done this all winter and it should work back to it hopefully.

 

little post on the ECM 0z before the 12z comes out

 

today on the 0z we have seen the atlantic ridge push east now this may very well be how it happens if the anomalies charts are correct but we may have another go at ridging if we do go that route.

 

here is the ECM 0z mean 500 anomalies and you see it has the ridge the same as the op this might mean we see more energy coming from Canada off the vortex after this

 

 

below is todays day 10 chart and notice I have arrowed the highs which should be the next ridge

 

 

which are also there on the 10 day mean

 

 

now if we move to the extended mean 500 from the 0z and they are the same idea as the 500 charts above just different design here is day 12 and you can see some extra energy feeding in from the west

 

 

now if we move on to day 14 we see the high in the atlantic has retrogressed west and now is showing ridging pushing toward Greenland which will be our second push of heights north

 

 

now we might think oh crap more energy coming from the west so mild well it might not be the case as we might see some cold air encroach with snow chances if you look at the cold pool over there and it certainly wouldn't be a mild source and we should still keep our cold pool to the north east

 

 

so if the ECM is right and the GFS works back to it as I think it will as we have seen this a few times this winter then we may have to wait a few more days than what is shown on the op to get the real cold in if we do.

 

remember the last parting gift from the GFS as well before it went on its usual madness was to show us there was a possible reload and second ridge north from the atlantic and now the ECM extended is showing the same so we may need more than one bite at the cherry here.

 

hopefully the 12z ECM will continue the pattern and fingers crossed a little upgrade as well but that may be too much to ask at this point

Edited January 18, 2014 by Buriedundersnow

[Buriedundersnow]

To me today's 12z UKMO and 12z GFS are similar at +144hrs (at least in terms of the heights building or not building polewards), it will be interesting to see if the 12z ECM is similar to these two or if it sticks to the 0z ECM script.

 

 

hopefully it does and I think it should as its been the same with the last two attempts we have had the GFS shows the way in FI then for some reason when it comes into the range of the ECM the GFS drops it then struggles to get back to the idea.

 

mind you the last attempt the ECM also dropped it for a short while then the GFS sort of picked it up a then they flipped again.

 

the wonderful world of model watching eh

[Buriedundersnow]

GFS today seems to have dropped the idea shown but I am not too bothered as it has done this all winter and it should work back to it hopefully.

 

little post on the ECM 0z before the 12z comes out

 

today on the 0z we have seen the atlantic ridge push east now this may very well be how it happens if the anomalies charts are correct but we may have another go at ridging if we do go that route.

 

here is the ECM 0z mean 500 anomalies and you see it has the ridge the same as the op this might mean we see more energy coming from Canada off the vortex after this

 

EDH101-192.gifEDH101-216.gifEDH101-240.gif

 

below is todays day 10 chart and notice I have arrowed the highs which should be the next ridge

 

ECH1-240.gif

 

which are also there on the 10 day mean

 

EDH1-240.gif

 

now if we move to the extended mean 500 from the 0z and they are the same idea as the 500 charts above just different design here is day 12 and you can see some extra energy feeding in from the west

 

29omihh.png

 

now if we move on to day 14 we see the high in the atlantic has retrogressed west and now is showing ridging pushing toward Greenland which will be our second push of heights north

 

2vnnpjm.png

 

now we might think oh crap more energy coming from the west so mild well it might not be the case as we might see some cold air encroach with snow chances if you look at the cold pool over there and it certainly wouldn't be a mild source and we should still keep our cold pool to the north east

 

ECH0-240.gif

 

so if the ECM is right and the GFS works back to it as I think it will as we have seen this a few times this winter then we may have to wait a few more days than what is shown on the op to get the real cold in if we do.

 

remember the last parting gift from the GFS as well before it went on its usual madness was to show us there was a possible reload and second ridge north from the atlantic and now the ECM extended is showing the same so we may need more than one bite at the cherry here.

 

hopefully the 12z ECM will continue the pattern and fingers crossed a little upgrade as well but that may be too much to ask at this point

 

 

a little continuation of the earlier post on the ECM 0z with the 12z now out and the 12z continues the pattern but at the end gives a hint of what I was saying from the 0z with the looks of a second bite at the cherry and some feed of cold air and energy coming from Canada in between.

 

below is the ECM 240hr chart.

 

BLACK ARROWS = the two high pressures for the second ridge

 

RED ARROW = energy from Canada from the PV

 

YELLOW ARROW = where the second ridge will push north toward hopefully Greenland

 

 

now with the energy coming from the PV in Canada with the high to our north and also in the atlantic there is only on place for it to go which is into Europe then the ridge should push north after leaving part of the PV still in Canada and hopefully blocking it right off and also giving us snow chances from cold air being dragged out of Canada with it as seen on the 850's chart below

 

 

now in the 850's chart we can see we still have our cold pool to the north east in the yellow circle which should stay there waiting to be tapped into then you can see with the red arrow the cold air coming out of Canada which should keep things on the colder side at least and give us possible snow chances as it moves through depending on how much modification there is.

 

so if we see this pattern then we can look to the west for snow chances and possibly some before even this then hopefully the second ridge in the atlantic to block us in and let the deep cold encroach from the east or north east.

 

now this is the ideal plan from what we see in the charts but as we know it doesn't always work out the way its shown this far out so plenty of potential but as usual we will need to watch this closely over the coming days

Edited January 18, 2014 by Buriedundersnow

[Buriedundersnow]

we made the weather underground December 2013 worldwide weather extremes but not for what we were all hoping though as the chart below tells us but it shows where the mountains have got there great snow base so far from

 

 

full article here

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html?entrynum=234

Edited January 18, 2014 by Buriedundersnow

[snowy owl]

Well murky day, with heavy rain at times, in fact it was so dark we all slept in.

[Hairy Celt]

we made the weather underground December 2013 worldwide weather extremes but not for what we were all hoping though as the chart below tells us but it shows where the mountains have got there great snow base so far from

 

ukdecrain.jpg

 

full article here

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html?entrynum=234

Extraordinary map that, not so much for Scotland, but Wales so dry and SE England so wet.  Bizarre weather precedes the climate flip.

 

edit: ok, I got it wrong for Wales.

Edited January 19, 2014 by Hairy Celt

[Buriedundersnow]

right I have spent the last while looking over a few things and something has caught my attention about the pattern moving forward and the possibility of the second ridge and us getting the cold in here.

 

below I have the updated 6-10 day and 8-14 day 500 mb outlook charts and the ECM 12z 240hr chart with a little paint to help with the explanation as this is the closest to what is shown on the 500mb charts.

 

 

now if we notice in the 500mb charts the 6-10 day chart shows a lot of energy coming up the US east coast which is the vortex developing which we see in the day 10 ECM chart in the circle then when you move onto the 8-14 day chart we see the transfer of energy towards us and what looks like very little left over in the US/Canada.

 

now if we go look at the ECM chart we can see with the yellow arrow where the next ridge looks to present itself and with the yellow line what looks like the PV splitting now I wonder if this will be the little left over in the 500mb charts and we might see a lot of that energy transfer over to our side before the ridge moves into Greenland there after.

 

now if this was to happen we might be able to steal a lot of the cold from the other side of the atlantic and leave a smaller piece of PV there which would take away a lot of the pain of a decent piece of PV being there ready to scupper us and leave us with a direct line to the cold with high pressure building where the red line is on the chart below with a small piece of PV somewhere inside the yellow box and leaving us open to the deep cold shown with the yellow arrow

 

 

would be nice to get somewhere like that but so long out its just a thought and a hope for now

Edited January 18, 2014 by Buriedundersnow

[Zenarcher]

This week mainly cloudy for the sat images but Monday was clear enough to look at the snow on the Highlands,

 

[Ravelin]

Lying in bed listening to the wind and rain battering off the window and refusing to get up until it stops. I may be here for some time!

[edo]

Lying in bed listening to the wind and rain battering off the window and refusing to get up until it stops. I may be here for some time!

Lying in bed hungover refusing to get up until kids stop singing into a microphone.... Was at hospitality yesterday and the match was postponed resulting in rather a long day drinking.....I knew when seen only at page 26 here that nothing was in the immediate horizon and everything remains potential...good to see the hills getting plenty though so have promised the 3 oldest kids a trip to snow in some Hilda next week since it won't come to us

[mardatha]

Ravelin I'll bring you a cup of tea in early July then will I ?

[Hawesy]

Miserable morning in Crail, worst day in some time. Dull, overcast and raining and feeling very unpleasant in a fresh SEly wind. 6.8c.

[Northernlights]

Dry very dark start to the day at 6.5c but heavy rain has just started in the last 20 minutes . Gale force SE winds suddenly appeared  for a while last evening then dissappeared about 11.00pm. Oh for a few frosty days. 

[Highland Snow]

Chasing cold this year has turned into chasing the shadow of a ghost in a dream.

Aye this Winter is doomed I tell you doomed!