scotland Scotland Regional Weather Discussion 07/01/14

[lorenzo]

Lorenzo you know if theres any verification stats for the NASA model anywhere

 

Doesn't feature on the standard model verification page. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/

 

Not aware of any NWP verification stats. for GEOS model.

 

From their website it quotes under the products section http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/GEOS/

IMPORTANT: Forecasts using the GEOS system are experimental and are produced for research purposes only. Use of these forecasts for purposes other than research is not recommended.

 

I imagine there will be verification figures, looks like they are still regularly applying upgrades, the wise thing to do would be to hold off release until on a par with other NWP. Am genuinely unsure, information might already be out there.

[Buriedundersnow]

i'll have a hunt around the net and see if I can find anything.

 

you would imagine it would be quite good with a resolution of 0.25 where as the GFS high res is 0.50 especially with the fact it only goes out to day 5 how much can go wrong on a model like that in the 5 day range.

 

i know it had a wobbly a little while ago when all the models had a real problem but with it having followed the same pattern really over the last 4 runs anyway it might be on to something.

 

only time will tell i'll keep an eye on how it does over the next 5 or so days.

[LomondSnowstorm]

I would be a bit sceptical of the GOES normally, but it's essentially identical to the model 'consensus' at +120 but with everything a few hundred miles further west. The fact that it's high resolution doesn't necessarily make it more 'accurate' (the NAM's verification stats are similar to or sometimes even worse than the GFS up to +84 I believe) but again the fact that the longwave pattern is near identical to the other models suggests it's at least worthy of consideration, especially since the uppers undoubtedly have upgraded in the last day or so. It might be a relatively slack flow but with sub -8C uppers it would be quite a snowy period for eastern areas, and with the added bonus that the battleground where east meets west is moved further west:

Anyway, another rather obvious point I was missing - the 950s are not necessarily the best metric to use with this kind of surface pressure:

950hpa is going to be around 100-200m altitude i.e. basically at 'ground level' for most, rather than the usual 500m so really we'd be better to use the surface profile and the thicknesses.

850s are fine initially but with a warm sector clearly approaching at 6am:

950s are still useful at this point as the pressure is only around 1000hpa, and it's pretty decent although a bit marginal:

Front edge lowland snow a realistic possibility then:

with the caveat that strong winds will mix the less cold upper air in rapidly from the southwest:

Early evening looks like the time when we could end up with some low ground snowfall. 850-1000 thicknesses pretty decent:

sub 528 on the 500-1000 as well:

-5C uppers pushing in:

950s ranging from 2-3C in the northeast to 0C in the far southwest (bear in mind that's going to be the surface temperature for modest elevations):

streamers pushing into central areas from the west:

As the next front pushes in in the earlier hours it also brings with it the warmer core of uppers, although notably they are still sub 0C:

Might be enough for something transitory but with the warmer core of the low there'll be enough surface mixing to keep DPs just above snow levels through Monday, although notably high ground will remain a favourite spot with those low heights:

The 850-1000s illustrate perfectly the possibilities once the low sinks:

-10C uppers into Shetland:

 

Something worth noting - the uppers around that region on the GFS are a good 5C higher for that timeframe, which implies that the EURO4 would back the colder NASA setup over the GFS:

 

 

We'll need to wait and see, but if the EURO4 does verify better at that range it bodes well for a colder, snowier easterly by midweek.

[Buriedundersnow]

i hope the NASA model is closet to the mark because should the block fail then that big bank of cold air from the west would certainly be a good fall back especially with SST's still warm out in the atlantic

 

[101_North]

What a miserable morning! 

[Cheggers]

Shocking news from Head of Muir........ It's raining! Who would have guessed that?

[mardatha]

Well I really thought I'd get snow because of the height here but nooo noo MORE BLOODY RAIN!

[Blizzardo]

Well I really thought I'd get snow because of the height here but nooo noo MORE BLOODY RAIN!

There's a bit of a warmer sector passing through. It wouldn't take much for it to turn to sleet/snow.

[101_North]

Judging by the snowfall radar the forecasts and warnings were out by a huge distance! Although a few pink echoes beginning to appear in Southern Scotland now. 

Edited January 26, 2014 by 101_North

[mardatha]

It certainly feels cold enough - very horrible wind swirling around from all directions and our wee thermometer reads 2.1 but not sure how accurate it is. But I am sure aboot the hammering battering pelting RAIN

[November13]

Yep more rain.Glen ogle white at 750ft.

[Northernlights]

right if we think of this winter and if we do see snow on a westerly well we had big massive low pressure systems around the same time this winter and last winter then if we see a decent push of cold from the west it would be around the same time as last winter as well.

 

cold and snowy spring again anyone?

 

EDIT: well apart from NL don't think he would be too amused by it for obvious reasons

 

 

Hi BUS I think a cold spring is almost a given as forage stocks on livestock farms although of high quality are low after  no  growth in April and May and a very hot,dry short growing season last  spring/ summer. We have also had two very late springs in a row now a new pattern perhaps and with the seas round us still cooling and may get cooler still if this cold weather arrives from both west and east then our traditional springtime north and east winds will pack an additional punch.

 

Currently 3.2c very windy and a little rain falling. Snow on the traffic cams at Drummochter and the Slochd however on the A9

[scottishandy]

changed route tomorrow I forgot I had posted that altitude finder on here a while back so found a good route gonna leave here go up through callander up to between loch earn and loch tay I have got my spot picked 312m above sea level then drive back down through crieff then hopefully get a second dose of snow between auchterarder and muckhart 220m above sea level then on to my mums for sunday roast and hopefully a gizzilion pics to put on here when I get home.

 

heres the link again for anyone thinking of doing the same and finding the closest place they might find something tomorrow

 

http://www.daftlogic.com/sandbox-google-maps-find-altitude.htm

 

I assume your 312m point is Glen Ogle

Check Traffic Scotland webcam - tried to paste image but it wouldn't let me!

 

A good shout and nice wee carpark on the right at the top of the hill.

Another good shout closer to home is Sherrifmuir - road can get interesting but goes pretty high, better to climb from Dunblane centre than Bridge of Allan if surface is snowy. Head up to Sherrifmuir Inn then left and up to a wee copse of trees on Right. If you walk East from there 200m you get to a wee stream gully which catches some good drifts. Also an option for your route home if you haven't found any snow by then, climb from Blackford or Greenloaning.

[Blizzardo]

I've just driven over the Crow Road at the Campsies and its snowing at its highest points which I think are just over 300m. 

[101_North]

This webcam sums it up perfectly. West Kip in the background is about 550m and has barely managed a dusting up top!

 

http://www.eastsidecottages.co.uk/webcam/

[lorenzo]

Looks like the higher up you are the better off you will be this morning..

 

 

Wild day out there..

 

[Ravelin]

Rain on here now and its sleety, perhaps bordering on very wet snow in the heavier bursts. Temp 2.0/1.2C and dropping slowly (probably due to the precipitation). Overnight it got as low as -1.8C.

Braemar snow gates closed and looking a little while ago at the webcam showed snow lying at it, but kind of wet looking even there. All ski resorts shut.

Edited January 26, 2014 by Ravelin

[over_the_rainbow]

Peeing it here as well - joy! 

 

Hope everyone who was celebrating last night is feeling ok this morning! 

[Ravelin]

Temp dropped to 1.6/0.9C and in heavier bursts it is definitely falling as snow. Eased off and back to rain at the moment and ground far too wet for anything to lie.

[Audrey]

We have snow!  It is a bit wet but we have a covering.  For the record this is only about the second day this winter that we have had any snow falling. Very unusual!

[jellybaby1969]

sleety rain here on the ayrshire coast

[Poots]

Sleet and snaw here now. T dropped back to 1.9c

[NUT]

Rain easing slightly but when I was out at half 9 there with dogs I was convinced it was trying to turn to sleet but couldn't manage it. Either way, it's vile out there this morning

[Hawesy]

3.6c/1.2c, wind SSEly 30mph. Light rain. Not planning to go far today!

[Norrance]

Just cold wet and windy here. 3C. Don't envy my daughter working outside this morning.

Looking round the traffice cameras Drummochter and Glenogle looking very snowy. A covering at Foudland and a touch of slush at the Slochdt but nothing else in view.

Hopefully that will change through the week.

Edited January 26, 2014 by Norrance