scotland Scotland Regional Weather Discussion 07/01/14

[blitzen]

nothing wrong with the BBC forecast the latest one has quoted snow down to 200-300m tomorrow so we might even see some low level snow on the leading edge.

 

I've got my snow hunting plans for tomorrow I think I am going to take LS's advice and head up toward Gleneagles then if no luck there shoot right through to Crieff and if still no luck either up to loch earn and on west from there or north through the hills toward Aberfeldy hopefully will manage to find something in all that will wait for LS to tell me if that still sounds good or not.

 

I love up that area BUS. So picturesque. Spent many a good day in Crieff.

Think we are getting to the point now where things are  a bit confusing. Too many differing opinions to try and keep up with.  Think I will be switching to radar watch soon and see what falls from the sky.

 

 

 

 

 

EDO:

 

 

  Yes.... sad ain't I?   Well just to throw BBC in the mix again...Heard the last News 24 and it was said that it will turn much colder next week with winds turning into the east. Had a look at the MOD and the UKMO has changed a bit though stilll good enough but bringing the Atlantic in at T120.  I was a bit surprised with the run after the BBC's comments?  Improved GFS though.

Edited January 25, 2014 by Blitzen

[Buriedundersnow]

  Yes.... sad ain't I?   Well just to throw BBC in the mix again...Heard the last News 24 and it was said that it will turn much colder next week with winds turning into the east. Had a look at the MOD and the UKMO has changed a bit though stilll good enough but bringing the Atlantic in at T120.  I was a bit surprised with the run after the BBC's comments?  Improved GFS though.

 

 

the BBC wont have that information yet to put in there forecasts but from the 12z's it does look like it might be falling apart before it even got going hopefully the models can pull something out but if not its gonna be move on and look for the next shot which could be Greenland.

 

blocks to the northeast can be a right pain in the back side and leaving us out the cold a lot of the time but then again like LS says models can under estimate how strong they are so we will probably have to wait and see how we get on but not looking promising at the moment.

[Buriedundersnow]

still some wintry stuff showing in showers for people with elevation

 

[Hairy Celt]

still some wintry stuff showing in showers for people with elevation

 

Be1vuhNIEAAo8gl.jpg

 

I can confirm the accuracy of that map...

[mardatha]

SNOT FAIR. Tell it to snow lower!

[Norrance]

nothing wrong with the BBC forecast the latest one has quoted snow down to 200-300m tomorrow so we might even see some low level snow on the leading edge. I've got my snow hunting plans for tomorrow I think I am going to take LS's advice and head up toward Gleneagles then if no luck there shoot right through to Crieff and if still no luck either up to loch earn and on west from there or north through the hills toward Aberfeldy hopefully will manage to find something in all that will wait for LS to tell me if that still sounds good or not.

There is still a little old wet snow right at the highest bit of the road to Aberfeldy today from Crieff today. Just about 3 or so miles South of Aberfeldy over 300 meters asl. Showers looked wintry looking West towards the higher hills at Glenlyon and Lawers and the higher hills were solid white.Here 3C with mostly clear skies.

[Bullseye]

Any ideas on what Steve murr means with deep snow for Midlands North does he mean north as in England or north as I us? Won't take first option as an answer ha! Latest BBC news weather looked fairly snowy for majority of Scotland tomorrow morning.

[blitzen]

Any ideas on what Steve murr means with deep snow for Midlands North does he mean north as in England or north as I us? Won't take first option as an answer ha! Latest BBC news weather looked fairly snowy for majority of Scotland tomorrow morning.

I took it to mean Midlands north ie: including us.

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

BBC weather shows snow in the central belt tomorrow Morning. Will there be any??

Edited January 25, 2014 by Ross Andrew Hemphill

[dragan]

Getting closer to the reliable time-frame for cold. I think we see snow tommorow however, not sure it will settle (central belt question)

[LomondSnowstorm]

Just on my way bal from piping at a Burns supper so I've only caught the shouty MT summary of most of the 12Zs (in fairness I did participate in the early rounds of hostilities before a seemingly decent ECM cheered folk up) but basically the main points seem to be:

UKMO solution deid in the water, but still a 24 hour easterly with uppers close to the magic -8C mark (hopefully we can get further westward corrections to strengthen the flow and the cold a bit) for Thursday

Next low going to be the next sticking point, but obviously the further west the better and also the slacker the better. Could be anything from a re-run of the current setup to a big battleground snowfall to a proper slider low. I wouldn't rule any of those out but given the tendency of lows to disrupt a bit more than initially modelled I think it's likely to keep things cold, and that gives us a bit of leeway in that either the 'vertical trough' battleground (seem ECM +216) or the Hogmanay '78 spectacular (ECM +240 perhaps closest to that in the sense that it finally removes the Azores High) are snowmaggedon heaven.

As for tomorrow, sounds a good plan BUS, it's a big frontal system so it'll be more altitude/topographic dependent than regional but there will certainly be a lot of precipitation and snow down to road level on the higher routes.

[Buriedundersnow]

wouldn't mind seeing charts like this one winter

 

 

ICE AGE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Buriedundersnow]

changed route tomorrow I forgot I had posted that altitude finder on here a while back so found a good route gonna leave here go up through callander up to between loch earn and loch tay I have got my spot picked 312m above sea level then drive back down through crieff then hopefully get a second dose of snow between auchterarder and muckhart 220m above sea level then on to my mums for sunday roast and hopefully a gizzilion pics to put on here when I get home.

 

heres the link again for anyone thinking of doing the same and finding the closest place they might find something tomorrow

 

http://www.daftlogic.com/sandbox-google-maps-find-altitude.htm

Edited January 25, 2014 by Buriedundersnow

[spindrift1980]

Wet snow falling at 300m in the Trossachs today.  Didn't go any higher today as the winds were a tad 'fresh'!

[lorenzo]

That's one busy looking warnings page LOL !!

[Buriedundersnow]

maybe we are looking the wrong way and the path ahead is to flatten the azores high

 

 

if we can get those uppers with the atlantic like this imagine what we could do with a flat azores

 

Edited January 25, 2014 by Buriedundersnow

[edo]

changed route tomorrow I forgot I had posted that altitude finder on here a while back so found a good route gonna leave here go up through callander up to between loch earn and loch tay I have got my spot picked 312m above sea level then drive back down through crieff then hopefully get a second dose of snow between auchterarder and muckhart 220m above sea level then on to my mums for sunday roast and hopefully a gizzilion pics to put on here when I get home.

 

heres the link again for anyone thinking of doing the same and finding the closest place they might find something tomorrow

 

http://www.daftlogic.com/sandbox-google-maps-find-altitude.htm

good luck with the trip i look fwd to hearing about it.....may take a wee drive myself 

[Cheggers]

Evening all, am back from Londonshire on a fleeting visit. Had some intense sleetyish showers all day, but now clear and cold. Going to try and catch up on what is coming and going, and if I will miss any snaw next week back doon South. Thankfully last week with our Southern friends (Baseball bat worn oot) So Feb better deliver.

 

Next week???

Edited January 25, 2014 by Cheggers

[Buriedundersnow]

if any model is going to be right out to 120hr let it be the NASA HIGH RES as no matter what way we go east or west it looks pretty chilly

 

todays 0z 120hr

 

 

cold encroaching from the east and nice straight lines out of the US with a big bank of cold coming into the atlantic

 

todays 12z 120hr

 

 

continuation of the same theme but with better uppers coming in from the east and the cold from the west coming in to shut us off

 

I'm sure the run before was along this theme as well

 

EDIT: just checked the two runs yesterday on archive and they look like the same pattern so would be 4 runs in a row its been going along these lines with a big bank of cold being shunted off the US.

Edited January 25, 2014 by Buriedundersnow

[Buriedundersnow]

right if we think of this winter and if we do see snow on a westerly well we had big massive low pressure systems around the same time this winter and last winter then if we see a decent push of cold from the west it would be around the same time as last winter as well.

 

cold and snowy spring again anyone?

 

EDIT: well apart from NL don't think he would be too amused by it for obvious reasons

Edited January 26, 2014 by Buriedundersnow

[lorenzo]

Pornography Alert...

 

Pub run serving up some fine last orders for Burns nicht ! Just for fun its way oot in la la land Storming evolution fron NPAC Ridge  .Arctic High linking up with Greenland -result 1065 Greenland High and everything bar the kitchen sink piling in from the East.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=20&ech=192&mode=0&carte=1

 

Also from Euro 4 this colorful effort for the 500- 1000mb thickness. Sub 500 dam air in place til Monday morning - impressive..

 

 

[Cheese Rice]

Woooooo

 

[lorenzo]

Woooooo

 

woooooo.png

 

 

Right, am phoning these guys.... 

[Buriedundersnow]

Lorenzo you know if theres any verification stats for the NASA model anywhere

[Cheggers]

Is this what is on en-route? 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-25896795