scotland Scotland Regional Weather Discussion 07/01/14

[Ravelin]

I cannot, for the life of me, get a fix on this! There is so much differing opinions/ model confusion on the MOD that I am going to wait until some of our more informed members appear on here. Much too complex for me to decipher that's for sure. Lorenzo's post seemed positive though so that, I think, is a good enough excuse to get stocked up on the sugars!

Haven't looked at the MOD since last night but its always a confusing picture in there as there's always a huge IMBY bias to most of the posts, in addition to the cold and mild biases some poster exhibit. Just got to try to filter all that out and get the general trend, which does seem to be colder at least. I'm not getting too excited as looking at the online forecasts for here its just looking too marginal. Temps of 3-4c are unlikely to see me burried and there's very few snow symbols on any current forecast. I live in hope though, as always.

[Blizzardo]

As others have said that's a really positive UKMO run this morning and its the one model (maybe JMA as well) that's been solid this week. I love the 144 hours chart that would bring heavy snow showers to many parts of the UK, with absolutely no marginality about it. However thats a long way out given that things still aren't really settled at 96 hours.

 

 

Another positive is that it's pretty nailed on now that it will be getting colder next week week and there will be snow chances for some, although some models (GFS/ECM) ensure that it will most definately be marginal for most of next week and as its stands I'd say the wrong side of marginal for low ground (lasting snow cover).

 

 

There's quite a few elements and how they interact that will determine how cold it will be. I'm watching four things:-

 

1. The strength of the PV moving off Northern Canada into the Atlantic

2. The position and angle of the Azores high

3. The path of the low pressure systems moving across the UK midweek

4. The strength of the blocking high pressure to the the North East and North of the UK

 

 

 

There is a big range at the moment on how things could go next week from a bit of a damp squib with chilly winds and a some sleet for low level areas right through to bands of heavy, prolonged snowfall then deep cold. My preference is the latter.

 

 

[Colsuth]

Im in the North Sea until Thursday.  The weather has been bad for most of this trip.  Constant gales and plenty of rain.  Hope the snow stays off until after Thursday ( the helicopters don't fly in snow/ low temps).  After that I hope the snow starts.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

A modern take, but a very good one.

 

 

 

Have a good one.

[lorenzo]

There will be some continuing consternation after each model run, that's for certain, this is where we are lucky to get the Meto input from fergieweather, even if he is a touch sensitive / defensive at times.

 

Still caveats galore, given that we have seen around 3 easterlies evaporate this season, FI and nailded won't be until 60-72 hrs I reckon, the only definitive trend is that of much colder options on the table than anything seen so far this season. Whether that is from the NW or via a subsequent Easterly feed.

 

Best model output watching of this Winter though as we approach February.

[November13]

Scots Italian sings Burns.That's what modern Scotland is aw a boot.Fantastic.

Edited January 25, 2014 by November13

[lorenzo]

Just to add, check the strat thread for the latest GFS run...

 

Maybe more fun and games in February than anticipated less than five minutes ago !!!

 

[Northernlights]

Real November like day here dark wet and dreich.Temperature started off at 5c this morning and fell with with the rain to 2c currently. A break in the clouds to the west now appearing.

[Ross B]

Wow! Heavy rain just turned to snow here!

[lorenzo]

Jus down the road and cold rain here 

 

Looking like anything can happen anywhere on the Euro4 06z. A real radar watch...

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=200912201800&VAR=prty&HH=24&LOOP=1&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=

[Ross B]

And back to sleet. Temp down to 3c and dew 0c from 6/3 an hour ago. Looking forward to this week. 

[Hairy Celt]

Real November like day here dark wet and dreich.Temperature started off at 5c this morning and fell with with the rain to 2c currently. A break in the clouds to the west now appearing.

Clearing steadily from the west now, much better than the early mush.  Your cow and cat photos were excellent.

Edited January 25, 2014 by Hairy Celt

[blitzen]

Didn't really expect that News 24 forecast at noon. Looking at tomorrow's storm, it looks quite wintry for Scotland? I wonder?  Obviously moreso higher up and further north but even down to lower levels later? Shows you how confused I am that I am going to BBC for some clarity!

Edited January 25, 2014 by Blitzen

[blitzen]

Clearing steadily from the west now, much better than the early mush.  Your cow and cat photos were excellent.

I read that too fast....I thought you said your cow  ' Pat ' photos were excellent!

[BleakMidwinter]

Sleeting in Suburban Sth Embra the now. Closest I've seen to snaw in many, many months...

[BleakMidwinter]

 the proverbial dogs dog biscuits (<this, this is the best autocorrect of a sweary word on netweather of all time, just utter genius, even better than the christmas pudding - actually no, the one for the Era of Modernity is still the best)  

 

 

Go on - tell us what the Era of Modernity one was? 

Edited January 25, 2014 by BleakMidwinter

[Poots]

Sleeting in Suburban Sth Embra the now. Closest I've seen to snaw in many, many months...

 

Same here with some big flakes now and again 

[Buriedundersnow]

this is how it stands on my local weather station from twitter

 

13:00 25/01 T= 5.0c (H8.9c/L4.9c) W=18.0mph WSW RainLastHr=0.0mm P=997.16mb Falling ,12-24HrsTime= Precipitation, very unsettled

 

that high was last night that's a summer night lol

 

here is the snow accumulation till 6am Monday from the EURO4

 

 

nevis range closed for the day due to high wind but I wonder how long till they poles are buried

 

 

who's taking bets on there being snow left up there all through summer and on into next winter?

 

peak wind gusts aren't bad just now but you can see the higher winds incoming from the west

 

 

next low incoming with a strong jet in tow but jet nicely aligned to take that low under the block

 

 

some interesting model runs from the 0z runs and hopefully UKMO is the form horse as it looks best for us although yesterdays JMA 12z was better in the medium term but an interesting set of 12z's coming up and hopefully they give us what we want.

Edited January 25, 2014 by Buriedundersnow

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Same here with some big flakes now and again 

 

Sleety here now.

 

T has dropped from 7 to 4 C in the past few hours.

[mardatha]

Temp dropped from 6.4 to 2.6 here and we had snow but its stopped

[Poots]

Temp drop here was similar from 7.4 right down to 2.1 in the space of a couple of hours.

[edo]

Hoi Blitzy get a grip!! Using the BBC!!!! Uve taken that too far

[snowy owl]

We've been doing the Big Garden Birdwatch - hardly any birds !

 

Rain clouds are gathering fast in this strengthening wind, will see what we get probably rain!

[Buriedundersnow]

Hoi Blitzy get a grip!! Using the BBC!!!! Uve taken that too far

 

nothing wrong with the BBC forecast the latest one has quoted snow down to 200-300m tomorrow so we might even see some low level snow on the leading edge.

 

I've got my snow hunting plans for tomorrow I think I am going to take LS's advice and head up toward Gleneagles then if no luck there shoot right through to Crieff and if still no luck either up to loch earn and on west from there or north through the hills toward Aberfeldy hopefully will manage to find something in all that will wait for LS to tell me if that still sounds good or not.

[mistyqueen]

Afternoon all! Do I sense just the teensiest bit o' excitement on this thread? Is the white Stuff actually gonnae put in an appearance? Been hellish up here today, but defo much, much colder than yesterday. Temp down by 5 degrees on this time yesterday. And a bit o' a hoolie coming in tomorrow as well. Ach, I'm away oot tae check my haggis traps, see if we'll be daein' the Scottish thing fur tea the nicht. Havin' a dilemma as to which dram I should take along wi' the beast, but I think the Dalwhinnie is calling to me.

 

Hope you all get to see some White Stuff soon guys!