scotland Scotland Regional Weather Discussion 07/01/14

[edo]

my live tile accuweather desktop app says expect 3 - 6 cm snow on Tuesday...... nice surprise as logged on

 

like BUS was going to head up glenshee with kids snowhunting this weekend but think I will wait now to see what this week brings

[Buriedundersnow]

What is the best model run from today for us? Based on snaw chances?

 

 

best models for bringing the cold in and looking to keep it in are the JMA and UKMO snow chances is harder to say as we all know precipitation charts are pretty hit and miss this far out but they all seem to have snow in the forecast for snow amounts it would probably be between the JMA and GFS but not 100% sure about that maybe someone else can give there ideas on that one.

 

my live tile accuweather desktop app says expect 3 - 6 cm snow on Tuesday...... nice surprise as logged on

 

like BUS was going to head up glenshee with kids snowhunting this weekend but think I will wait now to see what this week brings

 

aye your lucky the wee wan is only here till Monday then not back for a fortnight so I cant take the chance we will still have something to find by then with the way the models have been swinging around so I'm gonna have to go find something but if road conditions are going to be too sketchy I don't think I will drive all the way to the ski centres its not worth being involved in an accident or getting stuck somewhere with the wee wan there just to find snow.

Edited January 24, 2014 by Buriedundersnow

[edo]

must be hard mate....hope you have luck and dont need to drive to far to see some decent powder..........

 

not a bad view this especially being GFS although admittedly a bit away

 

[Buriedundersnow]

updated CPC anomalies charts still look like slider central tonight without the atlantic being cut of as the azores high fades which means lows may take a more southerly track which is good for cold and snow chances if sliders is the way ahead if we cant block the atlantic.

 

one thing of note long term should the block not hold to our northeast is heights pushing further south over Greenland so maybe the possibility of a rear end raid on Greenland to get some in there.

 

[edo]

warning warning warning......model thread is a place of happy people....... the world must be ending

[Ravelin]

Lol,guess what, I was also considering a drive to Braemar or Glenshee on Sunday snow hunting with my youngest. Anyone for a kilted thread snowball fight?

Coming from the Aberdeen side Braemar would probably be a safe enough drive for me and I've done it in the snow before. Not sure if Glenshee would be much fun if Sundays forecast is accurate as it looks a tad windy for comfort. Unlikely to do it as busy tomorrow so Sunday needed for catching up on other jobs. If it doesn't snow here soon I will have to resort to such desperate measures.

BUS, enjoy your time with the little one whatever you get up to!

[Buriedundersnow]

having looked at the CPC charts that I posted above and sliders might actually be a really good thing for us and we have been cursing the one good thing in a situation like this all winter.

 

have taken a chart and done a little paint now ignore the model and time its more the set up and if we can keep heights to our north similar to the chart then the big deep cold over the US might not actually be such a bad thing and I wouldn't even mind the Siberian vortex drip feeding the Canadian vortex from time to time either because if we get stuck in a never ending slider situation with the block held like we see in the chart which the CPC anomalies charts look like doing holding heights to our north then with sliders moving through against a cold easterly flow and pulling the cold back west from the east again when they move through and the deep cold over the other side of the atlantic getting pulled across with each slider we could possibly end up turning the atlantic into the biggest snow machine we have ever seen with added easterly convection added in between blows.

 

 

obviously this is only a dream for now but how great would that be to fall into a set up like that then my username could come true

 

 

[blitzen]

warning warning warning......model thread is a place of happy people....... the world must be ending

Warning, warning, warning ?.... you aint kidding! it is an absolute frenzy in there! Went in to catch up as I have been out this evening and gave up in the end. Anyone got a weather forecast? Is it on, off, north only, south only, UK wide?   Is it going to snow, sleet, rain, thunder, is it a snap or a spell?  Aaaarrrggghhh!!!

Edited January 24, 2014 by Blitzen

[Buriedundersnow]

 Anyone for a kilted thread snowball fight? 

 

a kilted thread snowball fight would be the mutts nuts but it would take some planning to get everyone in the one place at the one time

Edited January 24, 2014 by Buriedundersnow

[spindrift1980]

Lol,guess what, I was also considering a drive to Braemar or Glenshee on Sunday snow hunting with my youngest. Anyone for a kilted thread snowball fight?Coming from the Aberdeen side Braemar would probably be a safe enough drive for me and I've done it in the snow before. Not sure if Glenshee would be much fun if Sundays forecast is accurate as it looks a tad windy for comfort. Unlikely to do it as busy tomorrow so Sunday needed for catching up on other jobs. If it doesn't snow here soon I will have to resort to such desperate measures.BUS, enjoy your time with the little one whatever you get up to!

 

If Sunday's forecasts are accurate, I would think there's a fair chance the snow gates will be closed on the A93 just south of Braemar because of drifting on the higher part of the road near the ski centre.  At the very least, driving the Braemar to Glenshee section might be 'interesting'.

[Buriedundersnow]

12z fax charts saying 'come oot o hinding ya big cauld beasty'

 

 

don't worry there the right charts tonight I used a different site

[Zenarcher]

Some wet and windy weather coming later this weekend on Sunday especially for the West and North where 70 to 80mph gusts are likely. Some parts along Southern Scotland has heavy rain and flood warnings out as well.

 

 

 

On a lighter note (just a joke) the Scottish Weather Model is making a brief return, last winter it sent 2 weather balloons up into the sky with only the one returning but it did say that Scotland would see snow at least during February and March which we did. Tonight its done another run for the rest of this winter the results are pretty shocking it sends Scotland into extreme cold while England and Wales stay very mild,

 

[Buriedundersnow]

NASA HIGH RES 12z 120hr says   'good one UKMO i'll have some of that as well lets give the good folks in Scotland what they have been waiting for all winter'

 

Edited January 24, 2014 by Buriedundersnow

[Buriedundersnow]

snow cover still on the march westward on the latest chart

 

yesterday/today

 

[LomondSnowstorm]

UKMO tonight is the proverbial dogs dog biscuits (<this, this is the best autocorrect of a sweary word on netweather of all time, just utter genius, even better than the christmas pudding - actually no, the one for the Era of Modernity is still the best) -  that's what we want to verify. If not, still looks snowy here, provided we avoid the mushy non-cold easterly type for too long.

The thing with Ian F earlier on the MT was pretty much nothing, I believe it was Gavin who used the forbidden 'm' word in relation to the MO and I merely responded to that by showing how mental that would be (fortunately they aren't, or at least wasn't at that time). The Met Office has improved a fair bit in the last 4 years and I'm actually quite happy with their long range forecasts, bearing in mind a reasonable cautious approach. Their short range stuff has also improved, especially for easterlies, although I still sometimes feel there are some holes there as far as convection and -8C uppers are concerned (still, they nailed November/December 2010 other than the horrendous M 8 fiasco which ended up with Stewart Stevenson taking the blame because he was warned of a 'be aware' risk of 1-2cm of snow which he should somehow have assumed would actually end up as 8+ inches).

Anyway, I didn't see the pub run or ECM ensembles but I think it was all basically ok with still a decent snow risk, that 120 fax chart is a thing of beauty and again we need to hope that comes off as modelled by the UKMO. JMA and UKMO have led the way so far so I have higher levels of confidence in them than usual (especially since the UKMO is so often the easterly 'killer'). JMA eerily like last January but with slightly better uppers, not that last January was bad for snow at all:

The UKMO is heading towards a proper beast as well, monster cold uppers feeding through from Russia:

00Zs will be very interesting for sure.

Shorter term some ridiculously heavy snow for the hills on Sunday morning:

You might have to go as far north as Loch Tay but there will be some awesome snow around once that front clears through by midday, visibility back to being very good behind the front:

Edited January 25, 2014 by LomondSnowstorm

[101_North]

Can I stay in Germany please? -13c, -19c windchill and it's snowing! 

Edited January 25, 2014 by 101_North

[Buriedundersnow]

Can I stay in Germany please? - 13c, - 19c windchill and it's snowing! 

 

 

yeah as long as you get on the phone and book us all some tickets there in the morning

[Buriedundersnow]

maybe a bit of more hope than anything genuine but saw this on twitter

 

Jim Cantore â€@JimCantore 1h

By Feb 1st models want to DEamplify flow and bring warmer storm northeast w/ gulf moisture &potential rain/snow for the Superbowl....(cont)

 

Jim Cantore â€@JimCantore 1h

Still early but if anything looks promising we could be breaking from the bitter COLD in the east by next Sunday. #SB48

 

now if the cold is to leave the US its got to go somewhere and with the models hinting towards us maybe we will see it

 

like I said more just hope but would like to think it could happen

[Stormeh]

Hi guys, I don't post much but I am on here every day reading the latest on the models. I don't understand much about them, only the simple stuff.

I want to thank BUS, LS, lorenzo and others. I love reading your posts and the information you give everyone about upcoming weather events. The time and effort you guys put in is much appreciated. I hope you all get a big dumping of snow over the next few weeks!

Bring on the snaw!!

[Buriedundersnow]

just caught the forecast on bbcnews24 and nick miller said next week the winds turning from westerly to easterly and getting colder

Edited January 25, 2014 by Buriedundersnow

[lorenzo]

Great UKMO run Catch , very eye 'Catch'ing. 120 and 144 charts are best have seen this Winter.

 

Lots of superb charts around this morning. Happy that UKMO and ECM are both on same 'wavelength' no pun intended, and at only 120hrs out for the real deal cold. Clock is ticking down, will be happy when we reach 96 or 84 hrs, however with invasion of cold troughing sliding in of that parent vortex, we are getting slammed into lower thickness air no matter what. 528 line well South of the UK and  into the continent, thats one hell of a drop in on that trough.

 

UKMO providing a slightly more energetic easterly feed.

 

GFS looking faster, again so maybe it will hold it's horses by the 12z, at day 10 has a strongly negative AO and commanding Arctic High.

 

NH view looks amazing with little re-fuelling of the Canadian vortex on UKMO or ECM and good splits.

 

 

Pretty awesome viewing & hints of Wave 2 and a split vortex in the post in the mid term.

 

 

 

 

 

[blitzen]

Morning....not going to say 'good'! Incoming? yuk!

 

Was supposed to be headed to Stirling today but don't fancy 'sailing' in that! Think I'll give it a miss

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=radar;sess=

Edited January 25, 2014 by Blitzen

[mardatha]

When is the cold weather likely to hit? So I can get well stocked up on essential supplies for winter.

...cake and sweeties.

[snowy owl]

Mardatha, was thinking of a trip to Costco myself lol!

 

Not that i am hopeful of incoming masses of S_ _ W

 

Don't want to Jinx things too early lol

[blitzen]

When is the cold weather likely to hit? So I can get well stocked up on essential supplies for winter.

...cake and sweeties.

I cannot, for the life of me, get a fix on this! There is so much differing opinions/ model confusion on the MOD that I am going to wait until some of our more informed members appear on here. Much too complex for me to decipher that's for sure. Lorenzo's post seemed positive though so that, I think, is a good enough excuse to get stocked up on the sugars! Go for it girl!

Edited January 25, 2014 by Blitzen