scotland Scotland Regional Weather Discussion 07/01/14

[lorenzo]

Hello Winter, we've missed you...

 

Things getting much more interesting now, some properly cold looking model output.

 

ECM

 

UKMO

 

With this trough squeezing SE at 72 hrs still some good modelling to watch, some trends just stall this out and we don't get quite the slide needed to really boost energy into an Easterly feed, could stall a little and fill or could keep on going and become memorable.

 

What is also of interest is the propensity for the output to drain the Canadian lobe of vortex, this looked less progressive on Wednesday then from Weds 18z onwards a real kick into sending a lot of that cold on a NWrly track inbound.

 

Constant cold uppers, very low thickness. 72 - 96 hrs out.

 

Good times, this could be the start of the fun for February.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Hello Winter, we've missed you...

 

Things getting much more interesting now, some properly cold looking model output.

 

ECM

ECU1-72.gifECU0-144.gifECU1-144.gifECU1-192.gifECM0-168.gif

 

UKMO

UW72-21.gifUW120-7.gif

 

With this trough squeezing SE at 72 hrs still some good modelling to watch, some trends just stall this out and we don't get quite the slide needed to really boost energy into an Easterly feed, could stall a little and fill or could keep on going and become memorable.

 

What is also of interest is the propensity for the output to drain the Canadian lobe of vortex, this looked less progressive on Wednesday then from Weds 18z onwards a real kick into sending a lot of that cold on a NWrly track inbound.

 

Constant cold uppers, very low thickness. 72 - 96 hrs out.

 

Good times, this could be the start of the fun for February.

I note the ECM op moving towards last night's ensembles in terms of bringing the -8C line at least within a whisker of the east coast. This is a very promising trend and one we must hope continues, although even before and after the easterly there are snow chances galore.

Didn't even mention the 18Z EURO4 at+48 last night which was showing a rapidly descending snow line on Saturday night with some heavy precip and 950s close to or below 0C.

ECM maintains -5C uppers to the final chart and with the slacking lows looking to slide under the block just to our west (subject to changes of course) that's a setup which doesn't even need particularly cold uppers for big snow event. And then of course at some point the Canadian vortex is likely to run out of steam, at which point the fun and games really begin with the potential for Greenland heights post D10. Best output of the winter today, decent cold and snow almost within touching distance now.

[Highland Snow]

Minimum -1.7 but now 100% cloud cover at -0.5C/-1.2C(+0.3C/hr). Rain due in after dark according to 07.58 Radio 4 weather.

[101_North]

Shame the forecasts change every five minutes but certainly looks promising later on :-)

 

http://www.wunderground.com/weather-forecast/UK/Edinburgh_Airport.html

 

101

[Ravelin]

Blue skies this morning for a change with an overnight low of -3.9C, which if it isn't the lowest for this winter here it must be close. Temperature was rising fairly rapidly though as it was -3.4C at 7am when I got up and -1.9C by 8am when I left the house. Nice to see a decent frost.

 

Fingers crossed for next weeks cold spell, and fingers crossed too for not too much rain in those areas of the UK that are already sodden.

 

Edit: Now that Winterwatch from Mar Lodge has wrapped up, and they were moaning about the lack of snow, the yr.no forecast for Braemar is pretty much exclusively below zero temps and snowfall from Sunday onwards.

Edited January 24, 2014 by Ravelin

[snowy owl]

Overcast, but certainly not a dull day (too much anticipation of the chart watching today to be glum!)

 

Can someone remind me ( must be getting old) if the forecast says precipitation 1mm and snow is forecast does that mean 1mm of snow or not?

Edited January 24, 2014 by snowy owl

[mistyqueen]

The Dreich Monster has returned! But I'm liking the look of those charts! I still live in hope!

[Hairy Celt]

Overcast, but certainly not a dull day (too much anticipation of the chart watching today to be glum!)

 

Can someone remind me ( must be getting old) if the forecast says precipitation 1mm and snow is forecast does that mean 1mm of snow or not?

I think 1mm ppn means water so if it falls as snow that settles, you can get up to 10mm depth.

 

I thing we're all starting to suffer from mild bipolar disorders here, I wish this winter would get a move on... 

[Buriedundersnow]

good to see the ECM mean still showing us a battleground scenario its about time we saw some snow and it looks like finally we have a good shot of getting some.

 

LS do u have any idea where the snow line is going to be on sunday as we have the wee wan here this weekend and would like to go snow hunting if we can on sunday incase the snow shuts down before she is next here and would like to get some idea of what kind of altitude I would need to get to find something so I can try and plan out somewhere to go.

[Buriedundersnow]

ECM 0z mean anomalies charts looking ok this morning as well

 

azores high fading with heights to our north looking like consolidating and moving slightly south so would hold well with the sliding low idea and lows running south through the period

 

 

also good to see the GFS 8 day anomalies chart moving the cold in from both sides which can only be good

 

 

expected usual temps

 

 

forecast temps

 

Edited January 24, 2014 by Buriedundersnow

[jon_d1983]

Well the model thread is a bundle of laughs this afternoon!!! lots of moaning and nit picking each other about whether it will snow or not!! not going in there again thats enough for today.  Things improving and by looks of things i may see some snow showers early next week which will be a nice change to grey skies and rain.

[scottishandy]

Or maybe it'll "return to mild" eh LSS - consider yourself chastised!

[LomondSnowstorm]

good to see the ECM mean still showing us a battleground scenario its about time we saw some snow and it looks like finally we have a good shot of getting some. LS do u have any idea where the snow line is going to be on sunday as we have the wee wan here this weekend and would like to go snow hunting if we can on sunday incase the snow shuts down before she is next here and would like to get some idea of what kind of altitude I would need to get to find something so I can try and plan out somewhere to go.

Just on the train back to Fife at the moment but I'll do a wee summary after the 12Zs -on first glance looks a very fluid situation with snow down to low levels tomorrow night but with frontal rain on Sunday morning with the snow line rising to 600+m for a time before falling again in the afternoon with snow showers packing in behind (based on 6Zs). The Ochils into Southern Perthshire might be a decent bet (around Gleneagles/Blackford) with the 950s lowest just north of the central belt, but we'll see if that changes after the 12Zs. Ideally you'd probably want the front to either be delayed or hit earlier so that we have the colder air in place by Sunday morning, but at least there's snow in the forecast. Edited January 24, 2014 by LomondSnowstorm

[101_North]

About to finish up work here in Berlin and flying back tomorrow afternoon. Up to -15c for my last night :-)

 

http://meteoalarm.eu/en_UK/0/0/DE010-Berlin_und_Brandenburg.html

 

101

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

I'm well jell of the Snow in the Alps. They don't need that much, give it here Noo!

[Buriedundersnow]

Just on the train back to Fife at the moment but I'll do a wee summary after the 12Zs -on first glance looks a very fluid situation with snow down to low levels tomorrow night but with frontal rain on Sunday morning with the snow line rising to 600+m for a time before falling again in the afternoon with snow showers packing in behind (based on 6Zs). The Ochils into Southern Perthshire might be a decent bet (around Gleneagles/Blackford) with the 950s lowest just north of the central belt, but we'll see if that changes after the 12Zs. Ideally you'd probably want the front to either be delayed or hit earlier so that we have the colder air in place by Sunday morning, but at least there's snow in the forecast.

 

cheers mate.

 

prob best just letting me know tomorrow at some point as it will be firmed up more by then as long as I can get a kind of idea by Saturday night where might be best.

[Buriedundersnow]

can safely say from the drive home a little while ago we desperately need this high to take over and push back the atlantic as there was some pretty sizeable puddles I had to drive through the water must be running straight off the fields etc on to the roads.

 

lets get some cold and snow and let things eventually have some time to dry out.

[Buriedundersnow]

good to see Europe filling with snow from the east and slowly creeping west

 

 

and I know its the GFS and prob a little far out to have any certainty but if something like this came off I certainly wouldn't be complaining

Edited January 24, 2014 by Buriedundersnow

[DR(S)NO]

For those that hate venturing into the madness of the MT...this just posted from Ian Ferguson...a short while ago..

#1983 fergieweather

Members

1,065 posts

Gender:Male

Location:Bristol, UK

Posted 16 minutes ago

POPULAR

To save you all waiting - similar UKMO-GM from T+120 onwards. Signal for the colder entrainment is one with confidence now next week... how long it lasts, is not. More woes end of next week, re disruptive weather? It's got a bothersome look...

--------------------------

Ian K. Fergusson FRMetS

Twitter: @fergieweather

QuoteMultiQuote Report

[Buriedundersnow]

 

Posted 08 January 2014 - 21:02

heres a really bold statement before the block has even set up but here goes.

 

I think we will see the block take hold like we are seeing in the models today with the secondary push out the Atlantic.

 

I then think we may see it drift a bit east to allow a slider situation from tip of Greenland  south east into Europe.

 

then a period where heights return to Greenland similar to the set up we are seeing on the models.

 

after this the heights will drift into a Scandinavian position.

 

 

don't quote me its nothing I have seen in the models its another thing I am trying just wanted to put it out there to see how it goes but at this moment in time apart from the block we are seeing on the models its a 100% fail and will only get marks if any of it comes off.

Edited by Buriedundersnow, 08 January 2014 - 21:26 .

 

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79002-scotland-regional-weather-discussion-070114/?p=2889776

 

wasn't too bad a shout from what we have seen and what is creeping into the models

 

I will admit the second push from the atlantic wasn't what I had hoped

 

also I wasn't expecting the heights over Scandinavia to join with the second lot of heights to our north to be one big high as we are seeing

 

apart from they two it doesn't look to bad

[snowy owl]

Completely confused now tbh, think i'll wait till later runs and not get stuck with the just one run scenario in the MT!.

 

The charts are still very unsure of all the evolutions, just need a little more patience i think.

 

Is anyone watching ice road truckers tonite?

[Ravelin]

can safely say from the drive home a little while ago we desperately need this high to take over and push back the atlantic as there was some pretty sizeable puddles I had to drive through the water must be running straight off the fields etc on to the roads. lets get some cold and snow and let things eventually have some time to dry out.

I had an equally "interesting" drive home from work in what I'd call a torrential downpour. Hit some good puddles on the dark back road out of Dyce. Stopped now but still some decent puddles around the village.

[Norrance]

Rain just easing off a touch. Temp 4.8C which is today's high.

Looking at the fax charts at T 120 blocking widely to the North. Could the cold stick around for a while?

[Buriedundersnow]

I had an equally "interesting" drive home from work in what I'd call a torrential downpour. Hit some good puddles on the dark back road out of Dyce. Stopped now but still some decent puddles around the village.

 

yeah and it doesn't look like the weekend is going to be any fun to be driving around either could be a dicey drive for me to go and find some snow if we get some down to relatively low levels.

 

hope we do get the level down some as I don't fancy driving to the ski centres just to build a snowman and have a snowball fight with the wee wan.

[Bullseye]

What is the best model run from today for us? Based on snaw chances?