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Scotland Regional Weather Discussion 07/01/14


Snowangel-MK

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Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.

'orrible mild SWly winds?

 

Posted Image22nd Jan ECM +240hrs NH.gif

 

850 temps are between -4ºC and -6ºC across Scotland.

 

Edit: On the UKMO the low which heads south seems to take a lot of the energy from the PV with it.

If I'm reading it right (good chance that I'm off on one) but the first low comes in at T96 under mild uppers but,  we are then under -4/-6 maybe a tad lower uppers and it looks like  in an easterly flow as it sinks at T144?  Snow chance?

Edited by Blitzen
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Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.

Dirty big low incoming, it seems.....

Yes and no? Big dirty low incoming yes, but might be a bit whiter when it leaves..No?

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Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.

I think you could have been right with your previous post BUS as the cold uppers do indeed appear to be exiting usa on ECM? I think it is the first time this season that I have seen the European uppers actually colder than the USA. If these charts verify, then perhaps we could see a February winter after all?

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

I think you could have been right with your previous post BUS as the cold uppers do indeed appear to be exiting usa on ECM? I think it is the first time this season that I have seen the European uppers actually colder than the USA. If these charts verify, then perhaps we could see a February winter after all?

 

 

yeah it looks like we may see the cold leave them hopefully it stays away as it would certainly help us for the rest of winter and give us better chances of something.

 

I was going to do a post on the ECM 12z but I am a little baffled with it.

 

again it looks like it is powering up the vortex too much but we have seen this more than once this winter and it just doesn't look right from 144hr to 168hr

 

post-18233-0-79599100-1390423264_thumb.gpost-18233-0-22333400-1390423283_thumb.gpost-18233-0-66025300-1390423272_thumb.gpost-18233-0-40025100-1390423285_thumb.gpost-18233-0-23310700-1390423286_thumb.g

 

but probably the most baffling thing is the ECM mean 500 anomalies charts which seem to have changed and followed what the op did which I am unsure of as these have been quite steady and haven't changed much till now

 

post-18233-0-04753000-1390423455_thumb.gpost-18233-0-64979500-1390423455_thumb.gpost-18233-0-32292400-1390423456_thumb.gpost-18233-0-28194300-1390423457_thumb.g

 

obviously we cant discount it but to change so abruptly I wonder if there might have been a problem with the 12z somewhere.

 

will wait till tomorrow till after the 12z to see what happens but it does seem a little weird to be following a pattern and for it all to change on these charts like that maybe the CPC discussions later will tell more on this.

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Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.

Is that what is referred to us some sort of a col? (I take it you mean the  pressure shift between us and Greenland?)

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

Is that what is referred to us some sort of a col? (I take it you mean the  pressure shift between us and Greenland?)

 

 

haha you have me there what the hell is a col?

 

yeah the change there on the 500 charts looks odd and it has also moved the higher anomaly over Greenland further north.

 

I went onto the MT to see what was being said as it looked weird and supposedly the whole ens has followed the ECM so don't know if its a change or if its just wrong tomorrow will tell more.

 

you never know BLITZEN we might get an 84 like hit of snow that you enjoyed so much if we do see the PV move over like that.

 

for anyone reading who doesn't know what 84 was like look below this post in my signature where my video links are and click on the link for jan-feb 84 its a video showing the pattern we were under then and it gave quite a lot of snow with the vortex to our north.

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

Is that what is referred to us some sort of a col? (I take it you mean the  pressure shift between us and Greenland?)

 

 

had to look that up there lol.

 

it says its an area of low pressure between two areas of high pressure so think you were right.

 

I've never heard that used before.

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

haha you have me there what the hell is a col?

 

 

 

BLITZEN this might have come across a bit rude earlier but I hope it didn't as I wasn't trying to be but reading it back it could come across a bit cheeky.

 

sorry if it did come across like that.

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Posted
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and....a bit more snow
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow

Not particularly liking the look of this chart........really poor

post-18260-0-99555800-1390434984_thumb.j

And the met office have early warnings out for Sunday....

1. Yellow warning of Rain

Dates Warning Chief Forecaster's assessment Weather Impact Matrix

Issued at:

1218 on Wed 22 Jan 2014

Valid from:

0600 on Sun 26 Jan 2014

Valid to:

2345 on Sun 26 Jan 2014

Another spell of wet and very windy weather will cross the UK from the west during Sunday. Heavy rain and gales are likely to affect most areas for a time with further flooding possible in prone areas, particularly southern parts of England and Wales where the ground remains saturated following earlier rain.

The public should be aware of the possible disruption to transport and the continuing risk of flooding in prone areas.

Another Atlantic frontal system is forecast to cross the UK during Sunday. Most areas will see a period of heavy rain and very strong winds, perhaps also some snow for a time over northern hills. Rainfall accumulations of 15 to 25 mm are expected quite widely with 35 mm or more locally, especially over southern parts of England and Wales. Expect southerly gusts 40 to 50 mph quite widely, particularly with the passage of the front, and probably peaking 60 to 70 mph or more around exposed coasts and headlands.

There is still some considerable uncertainty in the details of this system and this warning will be updated in the coming days.

Local Authorities affected and associated warning levels

North Lanarkshire, East Ayrshire, South Lanarkshire, Argyll and Bute, East Dunbartonshire, East Renfrewshire, Glasgow, Inverclyde, North Ayrshire, Renfrewshire, South Ayrshire, West Dunbartonshire

And similar for many areas across Scotland

Definitely a period to watch carefully !!

Edited by DR(S)NO
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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

I wouldn't worry about the uppers from the ECM as long as it backs the synoptic pattern of the excellent UKMO, and it broadly does. The ECM is normally 2-3C too low with the uppers from easterlies with the GFS and the UKMO about right, the GFS at the moment is slightly overdoing the lows as per usual which means we don't really get the lee easterly (and the subsequent col, which would be very cold at the surface and then potentially very snowy if the next low is either 'vertical' or bringing in cold NWerlies). It's almost tempting to call it a cold zonal setup, although it's really more a battleground between a relatively favourably tilted stream of lows and a properly cold easterly.

Tomorrow's event has had a last minute upgrade by the way with the wintry convective potential behind the front itself showing its hand properly on the EURO4. Doesn't look like doing that much IMBY but for Glasgow and much of the west of Scotland it could be interesting:

Posted Image

Even some accumulations possible:

Posted Image

950s a bit touch and go although generally fine for a convective setup, by midday I'd imagine showers will be turning wintry everywhere:

Posted Image

Not sure how good the EURO4 is with convection compared to its predecessor but I'd imagine quite a few of us might see some showers, albeit less chance the further northeast you go.

Friday morning sees some very slight wintry potential, moreso for higher ground, before the mild air pushes in properly:

Posted Image

Posted Image

Maybe enough for a bit of snow for Harthill around or just before rush hour, but at this stage impact looks minimal, especially with temperatures generally above 0C as the front hits:

Posted Image

 

I wouldn't be too concerned about a return to turbo charged zonality yet, even on the ECM it's accompanied by a helpful Arctic high giving us a properly cold form of zonality and its march eastwards towards Scandinavia might just help us out long term, if it does happen.

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

looks like the ECM is overpowering the vortex as seen below the arrow shows the point where it goes bad and away from the rest which on the op is when the vortex goes crazy

 

post-18233-0-13414000-1390436080_thumb.g

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

In fairness, flooding kind of is the bigger issue at this stage - those precip accumulations are scary and with more frontal systems coming in seemingly on a daily basis the west in particular is going to take a battering, again.

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

looks like the ECM is overpowering the vortex as seen below the arrow shows the point where it goes bad and away from the rest which on the op is when the vortex goes crazy

 

Posted Imageensemble-tt6-london.gif

Yep, promising that the London ens are that cold though because the cold on almost all of the runs will have to get through us before it gets to them (or at least get to our latitude before it heads southwest/southeast), be it easterly or westerly.

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

Yep, promising that the London ens are that cold though because the cold on almost all of the runs will have to get through us before it gets to them (or at least get to our latitude before it heads southwest/southeast), be it easterly or westerly.

 

 

very true and plus we have a little tempter tonight with the updated 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC anomalies charts with a clear split in the lows around Greenland so possibly a chance at ridging toward Greenland coming up as well

 

post-18233-0-02159700-1390438352_thumb.gpost-18233-0-66361300-1390438340_thumb.g

 

P.S. I know we should be talking about the storm and flooding concerns more but its getting a bit tedious now.

 

want the snow to come and give us all some proper fun Posted Image

 

just a little note from there discussion as well

 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE 

TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS AND FORECAST TOOLS, OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY 

UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND 

TENNESSEE VALLEY.

 

so the separation of energy at Greenland might be above average confidence as well

 

Edited by Buriedundersnow
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Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.

BLITZEN this might have come across a bit rude earlier but I hope it didn't as I wasn't trying to be but reading it back it could come across a bit cheeky.

 

sorry if it did come across like that.

You worry too much! Never even crossed my mind.

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Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.

Morning folks. Well, what a surprise, to wake up and find all models on the path to cold. UKMO. GFS and ECM  all pointing in the same direction. Weekend rain of great concern apparently though? Must be bad if they are considering troop assistance for the southwest?

http://www.westernga...tail/story.html

 

planning for possible involvement of armed forces to assist in Somerset according to BBC news tonight, due to heavy rain forecasts.

 

3 weeks and people still cut off.

 

 

Have pinched Phil's post from the MOD as he makes better sense of things much more than I can:

 

 

The first thing to say is how unsettled the next few days are likely to be with a lot of rain and some gales as that the deepening low moves in from the north west.

http://www.wetterzen...ics/Recm721.gif

Frontal systems moving across on Friday and Sunday and showery outbreaks in between on a strong and cold feeling westerly wind.

 

Early next week the low moves se across the UK with the UK and ECM models showing in particular stronger heights across the north which makes all the difference to a cleaner evolution to an easterly at T120/144hrs.

This would change rain to snow for many northern and eastern areas first spreading further south as the colder air comes in.

 

Beyond that are signs that the next ejection of low pressure off the Canadian vortex may be held back as the pressure builds across from Scandinavia.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1201.gif

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1441.gif

GFS not yet fully on board  but even on that run a much better cut off low is shown with a weaker Atlantic push beyond.

 

A move towards better blocking this morning then so let's see if this trend can be maintained in later runs

Edited by Blitzen
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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill

Posted Image

 

Without trying to sound like the above, this morning it was around 3/4C on my drive into work with bursts of moderately heavy cold rain and a bit of a breeze.

 

My morning check of the ski resorts doesn't show much different. Lecht still looking rather bare which must be really frustrating for them as a degree or two cooler overall and they'd probably have been buried. Glenshee looking a little whiter, but probably superficial off the runs. Cairngorms completely buried up the top by the sounds of it "The top of the mountain still requires a lot of dozing and grooming before we may get it open.", but still struggling lower down. Nevis and Glencoe seem to have caught even more snow but may suffer today from the curse of high winds.

 

Carol's forecast on BBC Breakfast for Sunday looked interesting, with a swathe of white across Scotland on Sunday. Bet I still get cold rain again though. Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256

I've been watching the GEFS 850 temp ensembles all month, looking for any trends to deep cold and snow approaching Scotland, and have yet to see anything notable.  I know the ensembles can suddenly swing - and there are some folk who completely ignore them as worse than useless - but they will almost always pick up trends just as they're coming into the reliable timeframe, ie about 6 days ahead, and nothing shows at all.

 

Cold, wet and horrible here this morning. Not looking forward to what promises to be a minging weekend.

 

Perhaps I should invent a god to curse... or is it praise?

Edited by Hairy Celt
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Posted
  • Location: Motherwell, Lanarkshire
  • Location: Motherwell, Lanarkshire

Quite a heavy snow shower on in EK at the moment, but it isn't lying.

 

EDIT: It's starting to lie on the grass Posted Image

Edited by spindrift1980
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Posted
  • Location: Perth (Huntingtowerfield, 3 miles West) asl 0m
  • Weather Preferences: A foggy and frosty morning with newly fallen pristine snow - Paradise!
  • Location: Perth (Huntingtowerfield, 3 miles West) asl 0m

Temperature 5.5C/2.8C damp and dreich.

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Posted
  • Location: Dumfries, South West Scotland.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter and dry and very warm in summer
  • Location: Dumfries, South West Scotland.

To my surprise, 5c and sunny quickly turned to 1.5c and heavy snow. Back to sleet now and a chilly 2c in the gusty wind

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Posted
  • Location: East Lothian 88m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, warm spring, hot summers - nae chance in Scottie though!
  • Location: East Lothian 88m asl

Was lovely and sunny this morning, with a bit of a chilly wind. Now it's getting rather dull and the wind is picking up! Sign of incoming rain/sleet ?

 

Forecasts for Sunday look rather yuck! 

 

Looking forward to having a peek at the charts later. :)

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