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Scotland Regional Weather Discussion 07/01/14


Snowangel-MK

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Posted
  • Location: LEVEN, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms and extremes
  • Location: LEVEN, Fife
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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

not the best day with the models but I wouldn't give up on things for at least a few more days yet if you remember me saying yesterday or the day before we seem to be in a rinse and repeat pattern and I expected another shot to come straight on the heels if this one didn't work well I am going to show something on the ECM.

 

now if we remember yesterday it was showing the low on the US east coast and I felt this wasn't supposed to be there well today it has disappeared as you can see below in the 192hr and 216hr chart and you notice we lose the chance with our arctic high which phases with the Siberian high

 

post-18233-0-15287800-1390341193_thumb.gpost-18233-0-42676100-1390341208_thumb.g

 

now if we move on to the 240hr chart then we see another arctic high come in the rinse and repeat cycle and notice we have another low pressure on the US east coast so similar to the one before only later on

 

post-18233-0-97090000-1390341197_thumb.g

 

now if we look at the ECM mean 500 anomalies charts then you see they haven't changed much we still have the separation taking place at Greenland and the high sitting there waiting for an attempt to ridge

 

post-18233-0-18676100-1390341210_thumb.gpost-18233-0-83241400-1390341210_thumb.gpost-18233-0-17769200-1390341208_thumb.g

 

now this could be a few things either

 

it was too quick with the pattern in the atlantic and its slowing it down

 

there is still too much energy and we have to wait for more to leave

 

and the notable thing from this run with the low on the US east coast and the rinse and repeat arctic high if you look at the 850's chart at 240hr and maybe the first hints of the deep cold leaving the other side of the pond which if happened ahead of the low pressure moving up the east coast would give us a better chance of getting some ridging from the atlantic.

 

post-18233-0-48734600-1390341180_thumb.g

 

plus on a naughty side if it was close to verifying we could well see snow on a westerly and south of the border largely missing out Posted Image

 

so give it some more time yet and I strongly suspect if we don't win this time another chance will follow quickly again

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Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

Probably get a few hours of snow Thursday.Then its pretty much back mush.Not even bothered now.As long as ski centres keep open.Been an epically bad winter.Our coldest day as November!

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

a few things I managed to find today

 

maybe we should start basing our forecasts on SST's as JOE B called the winter right over there from SST comparison

 

post-18233-0-38059800-1390346064_thumb.j

 

heres a map of the weather extremes of 2013 across the world hopefully it will be big enough to read if not you will prob have to zoom your screen

 

post-18233-0-65944000-1390346055_thumb.p

 

found a colour image of that magically appearing stone on mars that I posted last night

 

post-18233-0-28095300-1390346090_thumb.j

 

and finally

 

post-18233-0-00173200-1390346065_thumb.j

 

ppppffffftttttttt 4x4 driver they think they can get away with anything Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

I think things look basically fine to be honest, at the moment neither the cold pool to the east or the milder Atlantic air are properly winning out so we'll probably be in for a fair few more borderline snowfalls in the next 10 days, with minor shifts all that's needed to bring the real cold in.

This is far from the worst ensemble mean I've seen given a mix of some milder solutions in there - most of the time uppers are sitting close to the -5C line and with the influence of the trough that means more snow. Certainly the ski runs will benefit majorly from this, with everything above Munro level seeing almost entirely snow almost all of the time, but it remains to be seen just how well lower levels can do out of this:

Posted Image

Surface temperatures are very much on a descending trend and by the start of February the mean is down around 0C.

The front on Thursday does seem to break up a bit quickly but still some snow potential, particularly for around 9am now (it just keeps getting earlier):
Posted Image

Posted Image

Posted Image

I'm just as optimistic as I was last night, broadly speaking - not all that much's changed really and we're still in with a better chance of snow now than we've had so far this winter. Granted that's not saying much, but it certainly is better than nothing, and still with a bit margin of error i.e. slight 'downgrades' would mean colder NWerly type flows which are still good for us but not so much down south, and upgrades obviously help us out too as it brings in the actual non-marginal snow. The cold pool to the east is there, and I've no doubt that we will tap into it at some point before winter's done - the question really is when.

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Posted
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl

I'll be at the bottom of one Sunday night through to Monday afternoon.

 

Shall be taking the camera.

 

http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Rogaland/Stavanger/Stavanger/long.html

 

Quite looking forward to it, even though it's just one night and with work.

 

Lovely country and best of all, drinking a standard (large) beer with a meal in a posh restaurant is perfectly acceptable, even encouraged. What's not to like.

 

 

 

Think the same of Norway. We went there on  our honeymoon just so I could get to see some July snow.  Just know there will be a few comments!!!!!!

 

Currently 3.9c and cloudy here.

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Posted
  • Location: near Jedburgh
  • Weather Preferences: well it depends.. just not haar!
  • Location: near Jedburgh

Always wanted to see Norway, my dad was there during the war and loved the people. Not gonny make it now though, too old and poor :)

I've cracked the weather charts you all keep posting - It's like a wallpaper sample book, innit? You pick the ones you like then slap them on the wall. Gottit.

I'm having the nice dark blue and purple ones, I like purple Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill

And the theme of the winter continues as it's grey, 5C and wet here (9.5mm from midnight until I checked at around 8:30am) yet again!

 

Trying really, really hard not to get too despondent despite the excellent posts from LS & BUS. You can only look at so many charts with "potential" not come to anything much before you start to lose your faith. Even Frosty on the MO thread went through his manic depressive phase the other night, and which he doesn't seem to have fully recovered from.

 

Youngest son asked again this morning if it was snowing and when I said it was raining he replied "It's never going to snow this winter". I think we're going to have to pay a visit to Glenshee or the like just so he can throw a snowball at me. At least Glenshee is looking much whiter this morning on the webcam http://m.webcam-hd.com/ski-scotland/glenshee and it should hopefully stay cool enough for anything else that falls to road level there over the next few days to stay falling as snow.

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Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

I am not watching any of the models now as they just confirm what has happened this winter. Brief marginal days of possible sleet/snow...But mostly Atlantic mush. January 22 and no snow or widespread frost..just pants.

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Posted
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67

Another boring day here. Grey, not that cold. Ground damp after last night's rain all a bore really

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Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Think the same of Norway. We went there on  our honeymoon just so I could get to see some July snow.  Just know there will be a few comments!!!!!!

 

 

No more than you deserve!! Posted Image You sad, sad person. That just tells me that Mrs NL has the patience of a Saint and always puts you first! I went there once in July too and yes, it is a very pretty country - but c'mon!  

 

At the rate it is taking this winter to get going, you will probably be celebrating your anniversary doing exactly the same thing here!!

Edited by Blitzen
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Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.

Another boring day here. Grey, not that cold. Ground damp after last night's rain all a bore really

http://firstwebcam.com/rochester/live-webcams-jines-restaurant

 

Pinched your link from a while back Nut. Usually look at it on a daily basis. Looks like their cold/snow has started again.

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

post-9298-0-60780600-1390395937_thumb.jp

UKMO is the pick of the bunch once more, with an easterly flow and low heights this is a very snowy run taken at face value. The other models leave us in more of a NWerly flow, but with some fairly chilly uppers snow would always be a possibility. After tomorrow, the best chance of snow looks to be Sunday into Monday when all the models show a wintry westerly with a northerly source. Timing the precipitation so that it hits when uppers are favourable will be a bit of an issue, and this is certainly going to be the case tomorrow with our backedge snow event, but at least we actually have a colder pool of air to play with, aside from Saturday's brief mild incursion.

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

spotted this on twitter for anyone looking at the ECM thinking we cant see snow from that its too westerly

 

post-18233-0-49810000-1390398286_thumb.j

 

I would certainly take that anyway if it was a westerly regime we saw

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

ECM mean 500 anomalies charts taking a step forward in the long term today and showing signs of reaching for Greenland with the Azores high.

 

post-18233-0-99116100-1390399906_thumb.gpost-18233-0-74948700-1390399907_thumb.gpost-18233-0-38097000-1390399908_thumb.g

Edited by Buriedundersnow
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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Skye, 14m/49ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, wild! wild! wild! Frost, a wee bit o' sun....
  • Location: Isle of Skye, 14m/49ft above sea level

Afternoon Kilties! Another dreary afternoon here, and looking at some weather forecasts I'm a tad confused! XC tells me 5 - 6c for the coming week with snow, Metcheck tells me rain and sleet and temps down to -1 to -4. Hmmm. Your opinions would be most welcome as to what we can expect in the coming week.

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

Afternoon Kilties! Another dreary afternoon here, and looking at some weather forecasts I'm a tad confused! XC tells me 5 - 6c for the coming week with snow, Metcheck tells me rain and sleet and temps down to -1 to -4. Hmmm. Your opinions would be most welcome as to what we can expect in the coming week.

 

the next week is looking changeable with colder incursions from the north west and the rest is still to play for with concerns to any easterly but should that fail its going to be one of they up down weeks temperature wise

had to add this in here seen as its this year and we know what is coming

 

Derek Brockway â€@DerekTheWeather 34m

Tongue of colder air over the #UK tomorrow, especially in the north and #Scotland. pic.twitter.com/UCFGSjqs9A

 

looks like we don't need to vote we aren't part of the UK we are just and Scotland Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

 
 
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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

and this as well this has changed markedly from yesterday with a couple of degree drop and sleet starting to show for Monday Tuesday so a little upgrade hopefully this can continue

 

 

18:00–00:00 Posted Image 2° 0.7 mm Posted ImageLight air, 1 m/s from east Tuesday 28/01/2014 00:00–06:00 Posted Image 1° 9.2 mm Posted ImageGentle breeze, 5 m/s from east-southeast 06:00–12:00 Posted Image 1° 7.4 mm Posted ImageModerate breeze, 7 m/s from east 12:00–18:00 Posted Image 1° 0.8 mm Posted ImageLight breeze, 3 m/s from northeast

 

should add this is for my location with no altitude to speak of

 

from YR.NO  http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/Scotland/Falkirk_¤0026_District_Royal_Infirmary_NHS_Trust/long.html

 

just add your location at top if your a newbie and haven't used this site before

 

plus GFS 6z 8 day snowfall and it agrees ok with the ECM that we will see some snow

 

post-18233-0-96584600-1390402696_thumb.p

Edited by Buriedundersnow
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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

found this its a cracking video from the met office a summary of the weather we saw during December

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t-pCYSQOiLs#t=147

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Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

I think we need to all chip in and send November13 to Norway with SS...........chin up big man its gonna be the snowiest February since well February last year Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

heres something of interest and BLITZEN may like this

 

looks like both ECM and GFS could be trending toward taking the deep cold out of the US in the medium term.

 

below is the ECM 168,192,216 and 240hr and we can see it wants to pull the deep cold uppers out of the US

 

post-18233-0-08778000-1390409701_thumb.gpost-18233-0-36078600-1390409714_thumb.gpost-18233-0-40080300-1390409715_thumb.gpost-18233-0-01586700-1390409741_thumb.g

 

and on to the GFS I have only taken this to 192hr as we all know what happens after but I have taken the 0z,6z and 12z and again you can see the deep cold uppers pulling away from the US plus the GFS goes a little further as we progress through the runs as seen on the last chart with the yellow arrow it looks to cut off the feed of cold from Siberia across the pole

 

now if we first look at an earlier chart from the GFS you see the deep cold

 

post-18233-0-35224800-1390409892_thumb.p

 

now the 192hr charts from the 3 runs and you can see what I was explaining above

 

post-18233-0-59355100-1390409912_thumb.ppost-18233-0-05733000-1390409893_thumb.ppost-18233-0-71616700-1390409891_thumb.p

 

hopefully a trend we can see continue in future runs

 

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Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.

Erm.....What's he on about then BUS?

 

tardi â€@BigJoeBastardi 2h

2 CROSS POLAR AIR MASSES WILL HIT US NEXT WEEK. Current air masses not as cold as whats coming. Different source region

 
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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

 

Erm.....What's he on about then BUS?

 

tardi â€@BigJoelaminate floori 2h

2 CROSS POLAR AIR MASSES WILL HIT US NEXT WEEK. Current air masses not as cold as whats coming. Different source region

 

 

 

 

Monday ECM,GFS shows first push

 

post-18233-0-87026600-1390412146_thumb.gpost-18233-0-57834700-1390412166_thumb.p

 

Thursday ECM,GFS this morning the ECM 0z was showing the push but today GFS has backed away from it so might not be stuck on with second push

 

post-18233-0-03350500-1390412136_thumb.gpost-18233-0-40292200-1390412155_thumb.p

 

its after this on Thursday the models are looking to try take away the coldest uppers although GFS has been a bit more bullish about it through the day so we will have to wait and see if they get there second push or not

 

sorry I know there not exactly the same time on the runs but you get the picture

Edited by Buriedundersnow
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Posted
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl

Further to a recent post we had a pair of badgers walking round the steading last  judging by the tracks in the mud this morning. Mostly dry day with a few bright intervals and a shower this afternoon with a maximum temperature of 5.8c.

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