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Scotland Regional Weather Discussion 07/01/14


Snowangel-MK

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Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

I skied at Cairngrom 10 days ago and the conditons were truly awful! Just Ice and the lower runs were patchy.Whereas Glencoe was fantastic. I even managed to ski 3/4 back to the car park. Not been to Glenshee but will get up before my annual ski trip to the Alps at end of Feb.

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Posted
  • Location: East Lothian 88m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, warm spring, hot summers - nae chance in Scottie though!
  • Location: East Lothian 88m asl

Dry, cooler and mostly cloudy sums up the day so far.

 

Promising outlook for next week. Thanks to LS for his fab summary (even at 1.30am!)

 

Glad eldest is back from camp on Friday :) before the weather changes :)

 

Will pop back in later to see what the charts are showing.

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Posted
  • Location: Currie, SW Edinburgh, 140m asl
  • Location: Currie, SW Edinburgh, 140m asl

Just arrived at hotel in Berlin and finally seeing some winter! - 2c and steady light snow with a covering around 2cm. Might be all I see this year so I'll make sure and enjoy it. 

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Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

Just arrived at hotel in Berlin and finally seeing some winter! - 2c and steady light snow with a covering around 2cm. Might be all I see this year so I'll make sure and enjoy it.

You might miss the hour of snow we get on Thursday ...LOL
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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

Some thoughts from Fergie on Thursday snow potential, WBFL = Wet Bulb Freezing levels

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79144-model-output-discussion-19th-january-2014-18z-onwards/page-29#entry2902329

 

Mesoscale models out to Thursday morning at present.

 

Euro4 shows a good set of 850hPa temps, contrasted with the 950hPa on the front, above mentions post front the temps dropping, a couple of more runs will reveal more, hopefully fergie will post up a sneak peak later of Meto output. 528 line straddles the country on this morning fax which is good and you can just see the colder air filtering in here.

post-7292-0-71055700-1390319189_thumb.gipost-7292-0-89517500-1390319178_thumb.gi

post-7292-0-29583800-1390319179_thumb.gipost-7292-0-16995800-1390319191_thumb.gi

 

NAE at 006z, again one step away from showing some real interest.

post-7292-0-50241800-1390319356_thumb.gi

 

Hi Res GFS looking good for Thurs also.

post-7292-0-19091500-1390319497_thumb.gi

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: LEVEN, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms and extremes
  • Location: LEVEN, Fife

Ice pellets/sleet mixed with rain for the past 30 minutes. Wind dirn 130deg, 2 metre avg speed, 12.8mph. Tdry=4.5C, Twet=3.3C.

 

The paths/roads started to dry up overnight. A nip in the air today with a SSE wind bringing in drier continental air.

Edited by snow1975
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Posted
  • Location: Motherwell, Lanarkshire
  • Location: Motherwell, Lanarkshire

Some interesting views (and some degree of scepticism) on this here:

 

http://www.winterhighland.info/forum/read.php?2,160860

 

I have a copy of the Adam Watson book so will need to remind myself of the chapter evaluating the possibility of glaciers existing historically in Scotland.

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

Some thoughts from Fergie on Thursday snow potential, WBFL = Wet Bulb Freezing levels

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79144-model-output-discussion-19th-january-2014-18z-onwards/page-29#entry2902329

 

Mesoscale models out to Thursday morning at present.

 

Euro4 shows a good set of 850hPa temps, contrasted with the 950hPa on the front, above mentions post front the temps dropping, a couple of more runs will reveal more, hopefully fergie will post up a sneak peak later of Meto output. 528 line straddles the country on this morning fax which is good and you can just see the colder air filtering in here.

Posted Image850 hPa Euro4.gifPosted Image950 hPa Euro4.gif

Posted Image14012306_2106.gifPosted ImagePrecip.gif

 

NAE at 006z, again one step away from showing some real interest.

Posted ImageNAE 06z Thurs.gif

 

Hi Res GFS looking good for Thurs also.

Posted Image45-779UK.gif

 

Ian F had an interesting post on the MT highlighting that Web Bulb Freezing Levels  (WBFLs) on the euro4 12Z are widely sub 400m, which is very conducive to snow at low levels. We don't have access to this particular metric but a good shorthand for calculating the Wet Bulb temperature (if you don't have an actual 'Wet Bulb' thermometer as snow1975 has and can't be bothered plotting everything on a skew-t diagram) is that it's slightly greater than the 'mean' of the DP and the Air temperature. Anyway, if the wet bulb temperature is below 2C at surface level things are pretty peachy for snow, although getting it to lie is a different issue and in practice usually requires a Tw of 1C or lower, a DP around or below 0C and the Temperature below 2C. However, even then we need everything above the near surface freezing level to also be below 0C, which is why both the 850hpa and 950hpa levels are so important.

What I really like about the Euro4 is that we actually have a continuous set of data for the entirety of the British Isles for most of the parameters, whereas before we were having to look at discrete values at certain points which often meant that a given run would have the boundary between snow and rain as being e.g. 'somewhere between Edinburgh and Crieff' rather than saying whether all of Fife or none of Fife would end up with snow. The sub 0C 950s are already starting to push in on that chart, although once again it also highlights how much easier things would be if either a) the whole setup was shoved a few hundred miles west or b) we all lived on top of a fjord in Norway.

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Posted
  • Location: Highland Scotland
  • Location: Highland Scotland

Regards the potential for a Sunday storm, the latest NMM run from Netweather Extra has 100mph-110mph mean winds over an area of the Western Highlands taking in the Glencoe and Nevis Range mountains later Sunday. Never seen that colour band come across land before on that model, and we are looking at the 850hpa height being 3000 to 3500ft as well. GFS 06z had what looks like 105knots mean 850hpa wind - not as easy to see on the newer charts from weatheronline with the barbs as it used to be. GFS12z seems to occlude out the warm sector quicker and keep the low further North. One to watch anyway.

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

Around 25% of the ensembles on the GEFS want to serve up some form of meaningful Easterly by the end of January. A real mixed bag among the rest with the troughing on a NW-SE trajectory the main theme, really is a good watch due to the variations thrown up day to day ebb and flow of disruption on that Scandi Block, prior to that even happening the daily will we or won't we see separation of the inbound trough from it's Canadian parent.

 

Among that 25% or so cluster there are a few belters.

 

Lucky Number 13 Please atmosphere, we have been waiting patiently for a long, long time...!

post-7292-0-37497300-1390325854_thumb.pnpost-7292-0-57633400-1390325841_thumb.pnpost-7292-0-94671900-1390325851_thumb.pn

 

And a few of the others...

post-7292-0-05723200-1390325894_thumb.pnpost-7292-0-88153900-1390325906_thumb.pnpost-7292-0-38321000-1390325908_thumb.pnpost-7292-0-51151400-1390325898_thumb.pn

 

Great model watching continues !

 

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: LEVEN, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms and extremes
  • Location: LEVEN, Fife

Speaking of wet-bulb temperatures, here is a photo showing my set-up in a Stevenson screen. The wet-bulb on the right is covered in tubular cotton lab wick which dips into a container of distilled water.

post-10675-0-70951700-1390326267_thumb.j

Edited by snow1975
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Posted
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snaw
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl

the whole setup was shoved a few hundred miles west or Posted Image we all lived on top of a fjord in Norway.

 

I'll be at the bottom of one Sunday night through to Monday afternoon.

 

Shall be taking the camera.

 

http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Rogaland/Stavanger/Stavanger/long.html

 

Quite looking forward to it, even though it's just one night and with work.

 

Lovely country and best of all, drinking a standard (large) beer with a meal in a posh restaurant is perfectly acceptable, even encouraged. What's not to like.

Edited by scottish skier
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Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256

Speaking of wet-bulb temperatures, here is a photo showing my set-up in a Stevenson screen. The wet-bulb on the right is covered in lab cotton wick which dips into a container of distilled water.

What are the two horizontal thermometers for?

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Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.

Pretty poor ECM tonight.  I think I am going to lay my head on the block here and say what I have been thinking since the start of winter.  Unless and Until the severe cold lifts out of the USA then we' re sunk! I felt at the beginning  that the USA set up was the cause of our poor winter this year and I think that we are shortly going to become embroiled in yet another saturated saga! There, I've said it.....shoot me if you must......we will see.   Once again USA is on the cusp of another severe cold spell which, 

I fear, spells more of the saturated same for us.  A few differences this time round I know, but that bloody polar vortex just refuses to lie down and die, aided and abetted by that lack lustre Azores high side- kick!  I hope the pair of them roast in hell!Posted Image  Phew!...feel better now.Posted Image

Edited by Blitzen
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Posted
  • Location: Dundee east
  • Weather Preferences: Cold in winter, warm and sunny in summer.
  • Location: Dundee east

Evening folks it's been a while since I posted in here !!

It really is amazing looking back a couple of winters ago, that were incredibly cold. People started saying that this would be a common occurrence, and here we are now on the verge of the kind of winters we used to get in the 80s .

Just goes to show that in our wee corner of the globe you can never predict what we're gonna get be it winter or be it summer-keeps you on your toes !!!

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Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl

Some nice big flakes on bbc 2 winter watch now. Caught the crew by surprise I think from what they said at the beginning regarding their met forecast. Hopefully the next few days may take us all by surprise as very much up in the air until the low passes.

Edit: they are in the Cairngorm flood plains this week.

Edited by geordiekev
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Posted
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl

Gusty wind and heavy bursts of rain with what appears to be sleet on the windows,currently 3.5c.

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Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256

Pretty poor ECM tonight.  I think I am going to lay my head on the block here and say what I have been thinking since the start of winter.  Unless and Until the severe cold lifts out of the USA then we' re sunk! I felt at the beginning  that the USA set up was the cause of our poor winter this year and I think that we are shortly going to become embroiled in yet another saturated saga! There, I've said it.....shoot me if you must......we will see.   Once again USA is on the cusp of another severe cold spell which, 

I fear, spells more of the saturated same for us.  A few differences this time round I know, but that bloody polar vortex just refuses to lie down and die, aided and abetted by that lack lustre Azores high side- kick!  I hope the pair of them roast in hell!Posted Image  Phew!...feel better now.Posted Image

 

Could be worse. You're presumably not a West Ham supporter!

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Posted
  • Location: Perth (Huntingtowerfield, 3 miles West) asl 0m
  • Weather Preferences: A foggy and frosty morning with newly fallen pristine snow - Paradise!
  • Location: Perth (Huntingtowerfield, 3 miles West) asl 0m

Could be worse. You're presumably not a West Ham supporter!

Or Leeds United either for that matter HC!

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Posted
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl

Out today putting hay feeders into fields for sheep as they finish off the last of the autumn grass. just in case winter arrives.

 

A question for Hairy Celt and other nature experts. We are now seeing badger activity digging etc..in every field on the farm .Never known such numbers of them with the tramlines in the growing crops of barley being used as motorways in the summer time by the badgers .Also noticing the lack of of lots of other ground based wildlife hares,birds etc... 

 

 Is this the result of large numbers of badgers foraging or are the large numbers of pine martin more responsible?

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Posted
  • Location: LEVEN, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms and extremes
  • Location: LEVEN, Fife

What are the two horizontal thermometers for?

The top one is the maximum, mercury-in-glass thermometer and the bottom one is the minimum, alcohol-in-glass.

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Posted
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire

Or Leeds United either for that matter HC!

UP YOURS Posted Image Posted Image 

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