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Scotland Regional Weather Discussion 07/01/14


Snowangel-MK

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Posted
  • Location: LEVEN, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms and extremes
  • Location: LEVEN, Fife

The thing is though all we need once the jet does power up is a bit of amplification upstream - with the models picking up on an Arctic high for the first time it wouldn't take much for our Azores high to ridge northwards into Greenland with the troughing shifting from Canada to Scandinavia and bringing in some sustained cold. The PV is so disrupted at this point that I seriously doubt we could see a return to full on zonality, whether or not we get lucky with the remnant vortex positioning is a different issue though:

Posted Image

 

 

We also have the advantage of having a euro trough in place - this will draw the jet SE and encourage the undercut so if/when the jet does power up our block is less likely to be a 'sinker'

Posted Image

Some fine potential tonight, fraught with risk as ever but it does look as though the bigger picture might be about to fall into place for really the first time this winter.

I'm only looking at the charts that are in front of me tonight. Of course, they probably will have something different tomorrow. If the up and coming cold shot across the US can dig as far south as possible if could amplify things for us downstream. Plus there's talk about a Strat warming event, as there is every winter these days.

Everyone is looking east for cold and snow. It can come from the west. I would like to see deep, fast moving Atlantic lows barrel toward us, preferably on a southerly track, so we stay north of them. If they draw in the brutal cold across the States, we could have a Jan 1984 esque type scenario. There is potential for big snow events down the line, not nessecarily from an easterly set-up.

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Posted
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: bright & frosty/snowy; summer: hot and sunny.
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland

The thing is though all we need once the jet does power up is a bit of amplification upstream - with the models picking up on an Arctic high for the first time it wouldn't take much for our Azores high to ridge northwards into Greenland with the troughing shifting from Canada to Scandinavia and bringing in some sustained cold. The PV is so disrupted at this point that I seriously doubt we could see a return to full on zonality, whether or not we get lucky with the remnant vortex positioning is a different issue though:

Posted Image

 

 

We also have the advantage of having a euro trough in place - this will draw the jet SE and encourage the undercut so if/when the jet does power up our block is less likely to be a 'sinker'

Posted Image

Some fine potential tonight, fraught with risk as ever but it does look as though the bigger picture might be about to fall into place for really the first time this winter.

 

Being a (very) simple soul, LS, is it a case of Arctic High: (broadly) good, but it just needs a wee hand the land the yellows and greens (aka "c'mon ra heights!") over Greenland? And then we might - just might - get lucky? 

 

So maybe if we all cross our fingers, touch something wooden, pull a few wishbones and then kiss the Blarney stone so we can give the cauld the big chat.... Posted Image

 

Well, helloooooooo....

 

 

post-6412-0-73624800-1389905289_thumb.jp

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

Being a (very) simple soul, LS, is it a case of Arctic High: (broadly) good, but it just needs a wee hand the land the yellows and greens (aka "c'mon ra heights!") over Greenland? And then we might - just might - get lucky? 

 

So maybe if we all cross our fingers, touch something wooden, pull a few wishbones and then kiss the Blarney stone so we can give the cauld the big chat.... Posted Image

 

Well, helloooooooo....

 

 

Posted ImageHelloooooo, the cauld......jpg

 

Basically yes, the 'blues' through central Europe and the Yellows and Greens over the Arctic are always good signs, no matter whether you're looking for Arctic westerlies, continental southeasterlies or anything in between.Yellows and Greens over Greenland, moreso east Greenland, is the best setup possible for deep and prolonged cold, but cold zonality with a PV centred just to our north or northeast could do the job, once again provided we get a decent Arctic high setup.

Certainly more than a little encouragement from the ECM ensembles for both of those fundamentals, with the jet axis tilted NW-SE and signs of that amplification over Greenland by D10. Before then we may still have some fun with an (albeit watered down) easterly flow.

Posted Image

The other critical point with that chart is the split vortex, with a sizeable chunk heading to Siberia. This should help weaken the jet off the Eastern seaboard and also provides us a deep cold pool to our east either for another attempt at the beast or, even better, a Greenie high,.

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

Basically yes, the 'blues' through central Europe and the Yellows and Greens over the Arctic are always good signs, no matter whether you're looking for Arctic westerlies, continental southeasterlies or anything in between.Yellows and Greens over Greenland, moreso east Greenland, is the best setup possible for deep and prolonged cold, but cold zonality with a PV centred just to our north or northeast could do the job, once again provided we get a decent Arctic high setup.

Certainly more than a little encouragement from the ECM ensembles for both of those fundamentals, with the jet axis tilted NW-SE and signs of that amplification over Greenland by D10. Before then we may still have some fun with an (albeit watered down) easterly flow.

Posted Image

The other critical point with that chart is the split vortex, with a sizeable chunk heading to Siberia. This should help weaken the jet off the Eastern seaboard and also provides us a deep cold pool to our east either for another attempt at the beast or, even better, a Greenie high,.

 

 

nice to see that big Aleutian ridge in the day 10 mean as its been present in some GFS runs as well.

 

still finely poised as to where we are going with the block to the north east but definitely good to have a fall back presenting itself in the charts if we do miss.

 

I'm still gonna stand by a Greenland high for now and the mean anomalies charts showing we may have a chance if we miss the easterly with heights filling to our north and what looks like a lining up attempt at the ridge

 

post-18233-0-90766700-1389908142_thumb.gpost-18233-0-76970800-1389908134_thumb.g

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Posted
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.

Some really promising charts here today, Let's hope they stay that way! Not known a winter like this ever

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Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.

beat you to what?

NothingPosted Image  Lap top acting up.  My posts were merging with other posts. Seems to be okay now though.

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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Skye, 14m/49ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, wild! wild! wild! Frost, a wee bit o' sun....
  • Location: Isle of Skye, 14m/49ft above sea level

Morning fellow Kilties! A cool 3c ATM, probably cloudy, but we had a stunning full moon the other night and the temp nearly got down to freezing. Wowsers. Not. Anyhoo, those charts look extremely promising. I live in hope!

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

BUS have you started Friday by hacking into the GFS...?

:)

post-7292-0-11482400-1389944637_thumb.pn

 

Brilliant period of model watching coming up as the NH profile changes, as usual ebb and flow from the runs, in particular the ops. will flip around a bit as the wave activity bashes the vortex, so keeping a wise eye on the Ens the way to go.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Skye, 14m/49ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, wild! wild! wild! Frost, a wee bit o' sun....
  • Location: Isle of Skye, 14m/49ft above sea level

BUS have you started Friday by hacking into the GFS...?

Posted Image

Posted Imagegfsnh-0-264.png

 

Brilliant period of model watching coming up as the NH profile changes, as usual ebb and flow from the runs, in particular the ops. will flip around a bit as the wave activity bashes the vortex, so keeping a wise eye on the Ens the way to go.

 

Don'tcha just love that chart? Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill

Don'tcha just love that chart? Posted Image

 

That chart is just completely nuts! Gonna venture back into the Model Thread in a bit to see what the overnight runs have brought but forgive me for trying not to get too excited quite yet. Once we start seeing cold charts 3 days out, and all the models roughly agree, then I'll get excited!

 

In the here and now, it's back to 6C, grey, wet and thoroughly miserable here this morning. Where did yesterdays lovely blue skies go, and why did I have to be stuck in work when they were here?

 

Edit: Overnight runs nothing to get excited about and yesterdays interesting ECM run seems to have backtracked if I'm understanding the model thread. Potential later on in the period i.e. Feb, but then isn't there always?

Edited by Ravelin
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Posted
  • Location: Perth (Huntingtowerfield, 3 miles West) asl 0m
  • Weather Preferences: A foggy and frosty morning with newly fallen pristine snow - Paradise!
  • Location: Perth (Huntingtowerfield, 3 miles West) asl 0m

Little variation in temperature over the previous 24 hours, currently 6.2C with a heavy shower after 09.00. 100% cloud cover and calm, 981.9hPa steady.

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Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

Current weather............Zzzzzzzz

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Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

Current weather............Zzzzzzzz

 

lol I really hope we get something cauld and snowy soon..... im worried for your sanity :)

 

The signs are there but we have been there before this winter so whilst I will happily log in watching the potential I think I will wear my wary hat until i see a snow flake...... I mean this as i type i but in all reality another couple of good runs and I will be on a mini ramp......

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

BUS have you started Friday by hacking into the GFS...?

Posted Image

Posted Imagegfsnh-0-264.png

 

Brilliant period of model watching coming up as the NH profile changes, as usual ebb and flow from the runs, in particular the ops. will flip around a bit as the wave activity bashes the vortex, so keeping a wise eye on the Ens the way to go.

 

 

I wish It was that easy if I could do that we would have snow all year round Posted Image

 

looks like all models are trying to dial into it now though so looks like the way forward and I hope it does as it could knock us into reverse zonality for the rest of winter and fingers crossed into spring as well.

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

the GFS 12z coming along nicely with the pattern we are seeing with the key part just entering the high res part of the run as seen in the chart below.

 

the arrows indicate the Aleutian ridge and the key part as far as Greenland is concerned with the separation of energy directly over Greenland to promote the atlantic ridge

 

post-18233-0-07194200-1389977653_thumb.p

 

which we then see goes on to give us a go at greenland

 

post-18233-0-23872600-1389977663_thumb.p

 

now it didn't stick this time and we see a reload phase coming right on the back of it but this can be a good thing.

 

post-18233-0-41415800-1389977654_thumb.p

 

why the reload is good is if you look at the 850's it helps to drag the colder uppers into Scandinavia now this isn't necessarily needed as the cold uppers would work our way but it does aid a little

 

post-18233-0-66033100-1389978015_thumb.ppost-18233-0-18896900-1389977655_thumb.p

 

things starting to look good for us coming forward and hopefully the ECM will follow this on its 12z run Posted Image

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

the GFS 12z coming along nicely with the pattern we are seeing with the key part just entering the high res part of the run as seen in the chart below.

 

the arrows indicate the Aleutian ridge and the key part as far as Greenland is concerned with the separation of energy directly over Greenland to promote the atlantic ridge

 

Posted Imagegfsnh-0-192.png

 

which we then see goes on to give us a go at greenland

 

Posted Imagegfsnh-0-252.png

 

now it didn't stick this time and we see a reload phase coming right on the back of it but this can be a good thing.

 

Posted Imagegfsnh-0-384.png

 

why the reload is good is if you look at the 850's it helps to drag the colder uppers into Scandinavia now this isn't necessarily needed as the cold uppers would work our way but it does aid a little

 

Posted Imagegfsnh-1-252.pngPosted Imagegfsnh-1-384.png

 

things starting to look good for us coming forward and hopefully the ECM will follow this on its 12z run Posted Image

 

Uppers are very tough to model at this stage but we do ideally want to tap into some deep cold, either directly from the Arctic or from that big chunk of vortex that drops into central Russia.

The GEM is going for the same basic evolution by the end of FI and this should give us that bit more confidence in the overall pattern change but the details are likely to be quite sketchy, particularly on the longevity of any deep cold.

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.

I just hope that the models continue to build on their positive signs again this evening. If they don't, we may be in for a repeat performance of nose to tail storms once more.   We do however have a few more things in our favour this time around though.

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

well the ECM 12z following the same lines as the GFS which I have shown in the charts below with the arrows

 

it has the Aleutian ridge present at 192hr and you can see where the atlantic ridge will come from

 

post-18233-0-64464500-1389990155_thumb.g

 

at 216hr we see the Aleutian ridge has done its job and placed a nice big high in the artic and we see the energy over Greenland separate to allow the atlantic ridge to reach out for the arctic high

 

post-18233-0-07235100-1389990166_thumb.g

 

then at 240hr we get there with the atlantic ridging into Greenland

 

post-18233-0-83905500-1389990166_thumb.g

 

and what a cold pool to tap into if we could get to this then we would be looking good to be slammed in the freezer

 

post-18233-0-64179500-1389990154_thumb.g

 

now the pattern seems to have been set and we now have to see how we get on as there will be some changes along the way and plenty still to be sorted out but we are on our way again and hopefully we will get the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow this time.

Edited by Buriedundersnow
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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

more good signs from the ECM 12z mean charts.

 

firstly the sea level pressure mean and we can see it progress nicely and at the end you can see with the arrow the separation and the ridge

 

post-18233-0-13270000-1389992971_thumb.gpost-18233-0-31333600-1389992986_thumb.gpost-18233-0-39335300-1389992977_thumb.g

 

now on to the ECM 12z mean 500 anomalies charts and we can see it has followed on from yesterday and is now showing the ridging at 240hr shown by the arrow and if you remember back to my previous posts on these charts even though the ridge looks weak just now as it moves closer it should grow in intensity

 

post-18233-0-60525700-1389992987_thumb.gpost-18233-0-20703600-1389992988_thumb.gpost-18233-0-12355600-1389992979_thumb.g

 

and finally the ECM mean 850's at 240hr and even though it still doesn't look great over us you can see the cold pool developing to our east with the cold uppers in Scandinavia and the deeper cold coming into western Russia

 

post-18233-0-62979800-1389992960_thumb.g

 

so all good signs out there and hopefully they will stay there or grow stronger as we progress with the pattern

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