scotland Scotland Regional Weather Discussion 07/01/14

[Buriedundersnow]

Exceptional, mean temperatures easily sub 0C for most of Scotland on that for Days 10-15 when it's 'meant' to be getting more zonal - suggests either very cold HP or proper retrogression (as highlighted by GEM in post above). Some brutal cold in there:

 

 

hopefully the retrogression so we can get the heights into Greenland like the GEM as a big Greenland block like you said would be easier to keep in place.

[LomondSnowstorm]

12Z GFS looks better for almost Greenlandic heights:

[Buriedundersnow]

right little something I have noted on the models starting with GFS 12z

 

below I have different times of the 12z then next to it same time on the 6z which is saying Greenland although it isn't worked out yet but its getting there.

 

if you note in the charts below the low arrowed and see how much further east it is well this is the low that gives us a go at Greenland

 

138hr 6z and 132hr 12z

 

 

156hr 6z 150hr 12z

 

 

then we move to the 12z today a little later and you see we want a shot at Greenland

 

 

now this mornings GEM 0z wanted the same but it had two goes with a little low developing ahead of it I would prefer to see this disappear and jut have one clean go

 

 

also todays UKMO 12z hinting toward this

 

 

and todays GEM 12z wanting to have two goes again with an added shortwave spoiler south of Greenland

 

 

ECM hasn't really shown anything on this yet but its been having a bit of a shocker lately and should come on board.

 

looks like we may have a shot at Greenland but plenty still to be sorted in future runs

 

 

Edited January 8, 2014 by Buriedundersnow

[Buriedundersnow]

nice short ens from the GEFS 12z with quite a few going cold

 

[Buriedundersnow]

12Z GFS looks better for almost Greenlandic heights:

 

the main core of the block in that chart has come along to what the ECM anomalies charts have been showing as well

[LomondSnowstorm]

Genuinely banged my head in the door frame running around like a daftie after I saw the above

[lorenzo]

At work so cant post charts again.

 

ECM 144 is weather porn !!

 

Beasterly looking chart.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Don't worry too much about the lack of clearly sub -8C uppers, November 2010 easterly at this stage was modelled very similarly:

The easterly feed is the critical element and we're eating out of a trough (of both kinds) of -20C uppers this time.

[Buriedundersnow]

ECM looks like it wants to come play with the others

 

[lorenzo]

192 on UK View on Meteociel is Epic... well entrenched cold !!

 

Proper Boom charts.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Just epic.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Best run as far as uppers are concerned is the GEM.

+144:

The rest of the -8C block arrives by +168:

And stays pretty much at that right through to +228:

Almost 5 days of easterly snow potential.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Time for a ramp?

 

I'll dedicate this one - well, he's been putting in the hours.

 

[Snowplough33]

Greetings kilted thread.

MOT in meltdown. Likely to overload tonight. Fantastic charts to see. Hopefully some fun on route.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Another thing to remember - the surface winds will be a few degrees more northerly than the geostrophic (wind apparent from the pressure charts alone) because of friction near the surface, so what may look like ESE is perhaps more like due east. Not exactly critical at this stage as we still have to get to that point but it is worth remembering all the same.

As Ian F reminded us, once cold air is entrenched it's very hard to shift so there's not much point getting hung up on the longer term yet.

[Allyw12]

Evening all

 

It's really good to see the cold is returning,  I'm not getting my hopes up just yet might wait another few days

Edited January 8, 2014 by Allyw12

[Bullseye]

Charts looking great ... so far! My question would be the chances of the winds shifting E to NE over coming days as would this not benefit Scotland and more so central belt? England do they not tend to fair better than ourselves from E winds? Lastly was 2009 and 2010 E or NE. Gracias my friends. (P.S 5 A SIDE FOOTBALL NEXT WEEK WILL BE A NO-GO FOR ME , NO THANKS!)

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Forth-Clyde streamer wouldn't be bad

[snow1975]

Stargazing Live is on BBC1 right now. The Aurora is expected tonight, from midnight onwards. Huge CME occurred last night. 'X rated' so a big Solar Wind event.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Charts looking great ... so far! My question would be the chances of the winds shifting E to NE over coming days as would this not benefit Scotland and more so central belt? England do they not tend to fair better than ourselves from E winds? Lastly was 2009 and 2010 E or NE. Gracias my friends. (P.S 5 A SIDE FOOTBALL NEXT WEEK WILL BE A NO-GO FOR ME , NO THANKS!)

 

Due east tends to be pretty good for the central belt to be honest, it's mostly down to topography so for the central belt itself a straight easterly gives you a good chance of getting the showers west to Glasgow with a classic Forth-Clyde streamer. ENE is pretty good as well, especially for Tayside, Fife and Stirling as it stops the streamers setting up directly along the Firths and hits a wider area in the east (although it's not quite so good for those further west). Too far NE and you struggle to get showers over the Grampians and Aberdeenshire cops most of it, so ideally something between E and NE is best for the majority of us. Both 2009 and 2010 were mostly a variant on ENE (December 2009 had the PV sitting over us just before Christmas so that was anything from SW to NW through to NE by the end as the centre went on a tour around Scotland for a good 4-5 days) and both had Arctic rather than Continental flows. With the pattern backing further west we're almost at the point where it's basically an easterly with a NNE source, which very much helps us as the cold hits us first then works its way down rather than last winter where it frequently built northwestwards out of the continent. The latter is fine if you have cold enough uppers but with a southerly component it can get pretty 'soggy' near the coast with a longer sea track and a less genuinely cold airmass getting heavily modified.

[Ravelin]

Temperature dropping off quickly tonight, down to 1.3/0.2C already. Hopefully by next week those sorts of temperatures will be highs and not lows.

[Buriedundersnow]

heres a really bold statement before the block has even set up but here goes.

 

I think we will see the block take hold like we are seeing in the models today with the secondary push out the Atlantic.

 

I then think we may see it drift a bit east to allow a slider situation from tip of Greenland  south east into Europe.

 

then a period where heights return to Greenland similar to the set up we are seeing on the models.

 

after this the heights will drift into a Scandinavian position.

 

 

don't quote me its nothing I have seen in the models its another thing I am trying just wanted to put it out there to see how it goes but at this moment in time apart from the block we are seeing on the models its a 100% fail and will only get marks if any of it comes off.

Edited January 8, 2014 by Buriedundersnow

[Cheggers]

Well it is still 10c and raining here, but it was a reasonable day for the most part. Be glad to be back hame tomorrow night, even if it is for a few days only.

[edo]

Well it is still 10c and raining here, but it was a reasonable day for the most part. Be glad to be back hame tomorrow night, even if it is for a few days only.

Nothing like getting home...now have new PC can get your signature toolkit fired up and ready for action....high confidence levels it be needed next week

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Well it is still 10c and raining here, but it was a reasonable day for the most part. Be glad to be back hame tomorrow night, even if it is for a few days only.

 

If I don't get my white powder fix soon, I'm going to Norway again with work for a couple of days at the end of the month so should definitely get a wee shot.

 

But wherever I've travelled, from St. Fergus to Saudi Arabia, there's still nothing better than stepping off the plane to pishin rain at Edinburgh. Aye, welcome (back) tae Scotland and hame.

Edited January 8, 2014 by scottish skier