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Angelici Magiovinium

Scotland Regional Weather Discussion 07/01/14

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Please use this thread for your discussions about the current weather or what is being forecast for the next few days in Scotland...please remember these regional threads were set up to talk about local conditions and your thoughts on how things are panning out so can we keep things light and topical and avoid any personal remarks - Thanks Posted Image

 

 

link to the previous thread here....

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78858-scotland-regional-discussion-231213/page-49

Edited by lorenzo

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Lets hope this new thread sees some real snow action unlike the previous one, it would certainly help to dispel the post Christmas/New Year blues.

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Lets hope this new thread sees some real snow action unlike the previous one, it would certainly help to dispel the post Christmas/New Year blues.

 

 

yip another one of these would go down a treat in the next while

 

post-18233-0-43084800-1389106103_thumb.j

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Please use this thread for your discussions about the current weather or what is being forecast for the next few days in Scotland...please remember these regional threads were set up to talk about local conditions and your thoughts on how things are panning out so can we keep things light and topical and avoid any personal remarks - Thanks Posted Image

 

 

link to the previous thread here....

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78858-scotland-regional-discussion-231213/page-49

 

topical lol :) well if there are no snow prospects I dread to think of the topics that may appear........

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stop saying it your making me hungry and cant be bothered going to the shop Posted Image

 

post-18233-0-15152300-1389107454_thumb.j

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sorry MODS not weather but had to stick it in as thought it was funny

 

You can use your dog's poop as a compass, according to this study >> http://bit.ly/19PHdjp  pic.twitter.com/Qta45emgfh

 

post-18233-0-73573200-1389107711_thumb.j

 

wonder if it can tell us what direction the weather will come from get testing folks Posted Image

 
 

 

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sorry MODS not weather but had to stick it in as thought it was funny

 

You can use your dog's poop as a compass, according to this study >> http://bit.ly/19PHdjp  pic.twitter.com/Qta45emgfh

 

Posted ImageBdYrIwuCAAEQCsr.jpg

 

wonder if it can tell us what direction the weather will come from get testing folks Posted Image

 
 

 

 

Which raises the question:

 

What do squirrel poop and Topic have in common? - a hazelnut in every bite of course! Posted Image

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Which raises the question:

 

What do squirrel poop and Topic have in common? - a hazelnut in every bite of course! Posted Image

 

Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

 

on another note anyone planning to travel Edinburgh airport is closed due to Posted Image scare the Posted Image squad are on scene just now.

 

suspicious bag or something.

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I think we are looking to the 13th/14th for a change in pattern and a blocking high. I wish the US would give us the tail end of the storm they are having although not as cold as -32c thanks! Looks like any cold we will get will be Easterly and Scandinavian sourced.At least the wind has dropped even if it keeps raining straight down.LOL

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Quite a pleasant day on the north coast, probably about 70% blue sky until an hour or so ago. Windibob at times though - one spectacular gust early afternoon that came from nowhere and almost put me on my airse.  Guess it probably came from the sky, thinking back on it...Posted Image

 

No, Rav, you're not the only one that gets annoyed by the increasing habit of giving temps as windchill - it's just done cos it sounds more dramatic. Journalists are just lazy nincompoops.  Another gripe is that so much coverage is just some lazy prick collating tweets. Any prat can do that, what about a spot of journalism?

 

If the weather pattern didn't seem set to be so cloudy, I'd be thinking about get a telescope for up here - got to be one of the least light-polluted parts of Europe I think.  Trouble is the soddin cloud!

Edited by Hairy Celt
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Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

 

on another note anyone planning to travel Edinburgh airport is closed due to Posted Image scare the Posted Image squad are on scene just now.

 

suspicious bag or something.

Whaddya mean, suspicious bag?  That's my gran you're slandering!

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If the weather pattern didn't seem set to be so cloudy, I'd be thinking about get a telescope for up here - got to be one of the least light-polluted parts of Europe I think.  Trouble is the soddin cloud!

Tell me about it Hairy Celt my four Meade telescopes are collecting dust though they are to my eye quite elegant ornaments!

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Whaddya mean, suspicious bag?  That's my gran you're slandering!

Oo-er missus!

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GFS 12z takes a step in the right direction today with the pattern I am looking towards but again didn't quite get there I have noted something between the three models and will show this now.

 

BLACK ARROWS = ridge

 

GREEN ARROWS = low pressures needed for WAA

 

first we see the GFS 12z and you can see the ridge with a poor attempt at WAA it does try to swing a second low round ala 2010 but doesn't quite get there

 

post-18233-0-14576300-1389112995_thumb.p

 

we now move on to the ECM and I have taken this at 144hr to compare to the UKMO and we see the ridge but also we see it trying to develop two lows over the US mid west which would prove better for WAA than the GFS but on this run its still fighting the pattern and didn't get there but promising for the ridge in the future runs

 

post-18233-0-86283900-1389113251_thumb.g

 

then we move on to the UKMO 0z at 144hr and we see the two lows in the USA mid west well defined and this is the best of all the models today and would greatly increase our chance of decent WAA with the ridge once it gets towards Greenland and is what we want to see moving forward

 

post-18233-0-80623300-1389113007_thumb.g

 

we could still get there with the GFS as we saw it try to develop the second low to swing round which would work but for what we are seeing at this moment in time UKMO is clearly the best option.

Edited by Buriedundersnow
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A cooling trend through this week, and while it should generally be drier than of late the GFS 12Z throws out some interesting potential for Saturday. Maxima very much on the cold side:

Posted Image

A front, albeit quite a weak one, stalling over Scotland:

Posted Image

Uppers easily good enough for snow:

Posted Image

 

After that it's a bit up in the air, with some sort of battleground with Scotland in between troughs, with winds likely anywhere from SE to westerly, but our latitude means that with a generally slacker flow temperatures are likely to remain below average:

Posted Image

Scotland could be one of the few places in Europe below average for the coming week;
Posted Image

although there's no way that chart's going to remain as mild for most of Europe into Week 2:

Posted Image

 I'll do a full model report once they're all in but the GFS is pretty encouraging and by the end of low res is poised for the undercut:

Posted Image

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A cooling trend through this week, and while it should generally be drier than of late the GFS 12Z throws out some interesting potential for Saturday. Maxima very much on the cold side:

Posted Image

A front, albeit quite a weak one, stalling over Scotland:

Posted Image

Uppers easily good enough for snow:

Posted Image

 

After that it's a bit up in the air, with some sort of battleground with Scotland in between troughs, with winds likely anywhere from SE to westerly, but our latitude means that with a generally slacker flow temperatures are likely to remain below average:

Posted Image

Scotland could be one of the few places in Europe below average for the coming week;

Posted Image

although there's no way that chart's going to remain as mild for most of Europe into Week 2:

Posted Image

 I'll do a full model report once they're all in but the GFS is pretty encouraging and by the end of low res is poised for the undercut:

Posted Image

No River Clyde on the first few charts.

Edited by Ross Andrew Hemphill

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No River Clyde on the first few charts.

Oh yeah, I'll let them off since they're French and they only recently included us in their higher res GFS charts.
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Quite an interesting wee vid. to let you see the force of the swell around Cornwall yesterday.   Notice the spectators on the cliff? (in the vid when it zooms in)   Jeez!

 

http://www.fifeweather.co.uk/index.php/fife-weather-news/194-incredible-footage-of-waves-crashing-in-cornwall

Edited by Blitzen
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ECM piling in the cold 850 hPa temps at 168.

post-7292-0-63848400-1389119804_thumb.gipost-7292-0-04283300-1389119807_thumb.gipost-7292-0-28901500-1389119846_thumb.gi

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ECM piling in the cold 850 hPa temps at 168.

Posted ImageECU0-168.gifPosted ImageECM0-168.gifPosted ImageECM1-168.gif

 

Hmm, just about southerly enough for widespread battleground snowfall (away from the Angus/Aberdeenshire coasts) but obviously a fluid evolution and I'd expect changes one way or another between here and verification. Good signs though, strange how the low just lingers to our west without really throwing much 'energy' under the block but still a promising run.

Posted Image

Posted Image

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Strat run has the PV heading south a little towards us.. Thoughts??Posted Image

 

I'm not sure I could cope with -51 a bit too extreme for me, but I wouldn't mine all the snow Posted Image  

 

Saw this cool but scary video today showing how extreme the cold is in the states http://youtu.be/hU-E_qPd6XM

Edited by Allyw12
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With ref to -51...with it being North America, you are never too sure what they mean. Is it the actual air temperature, is it centigrade or Fahrenheit or the anomaly or the windchill effect temperature??

Edited by snow1975
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