South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 07/01/14

[Snowangel-MK]

Communities in the South East urged to remain vigilant to risk of flooding - Environment Agency

This is a message sent via Thames Valley Alert. This information has been sent on behalf of Thames Valley Police

The following is a message sent on behalf of the Environment Agency:

The River Thames continues to rise in response to recent rainfall

Communities in the South East should be prepared for further flooding this week from groundwater and rivers, as a result of recent heavy rainfall.

Further flooding is expected along the River Thames. Areas including Oxfordshire, Reading, Sonning, Maidenhead, Windsor, Datchet, Egham, Staines and Richmond could experience flooding over the coming days.

High groundwater levels mean a continued risk of flooding in many areas such as south Wiltshire, Hampshire, West Sussex and Kent.

There are currently 50 flood warnings and 97 flood alerts in place for the South East. A flood warning means that flooding of property is expected and that people should take action to prepare.

Environment Agency teams continue to be out in force monitoring water levels, checking and operating defences, working with partner organisations, issuing warnings and helping communities to prepare. The Jubilee River flood scheme is in operation, helping divert water away from communities in Maidenhead, Windsor and Eton. Temporary flood defences are in place and protecting properties in the Oxford area.

Communities are urged sign up for free flood warnings. Those in areas at risk of flooding can prepare by checking on elderly neighbours and moving valuables to safety.

People are also urged to avoid driving or walking through flood water. Fast-flowing water that is just 15cm deep can be enough to knock an adult off their feet.

The River Thames is a large, complex river and will continue rise slowly over several days. With dozens of smaller rivers feeding water into the Thames, it is difficult to predict exactly how water levels will respond as the recent rain moves downstream.

The Met Office is forecasting light showers and drier weather into the weekend. With no change in the weather forecast the highest river levels are expected in the Oxford area over the next 24 hours (by Friday morning). River levels downstream of Oxford will continue to rise as water passes through the catchment, with the highest levels expected to reach the lower Thames, around Teddington, over the coming weekend.

Howard Davidson, Environment Agency Director, South East, said: “Whilst the risk of flooding remains across southern England, we’re paying close attention to the River Thames, particularly below Oxford, into Berkshire and through Surrey. River levels are high and will continue to rise for the next few days. It is likely that we will see further flooding to properties over the coming days.

“Environment Agency teams continue to work to work around the clock maintaining flood defences, clearing watercourses and deploying pumps and temporary defences to protect communities at risk.

“Advice for those dealing with flooding is available on the Environment Agency website, on social media @EnvAgencySE #floodaware and by calling floodline on 0845 988 1188

[Snowangel-MK]

Yellow Warning of Ice for London & South East England :

Bracknell Forest, Brighton and Hove, Buckinghamshire, East Sussex, Greater London, Hampshire, Isle of Wight, Kent, Medway, Milton Keynes, Oxfordshire, Portsmouth, Reading, Slough, Southampton, Surrey, West Berkshire, West Sussex, Windsor and Maidenhead & Wokingham

Yellow Warning of Ice for East of England :

Bedford, Cambridgeshire, Central Bedfordshire, Essex, Hertfordshire, Luton, Norfolk, Peterborough, Southend-on-Sea, Suffolk & Thurrock

Surface temperatures will fall to around or just below freezing late on Thursday night into Friday morning across parts of England and Wales. With a lot of standing water present in many areas from the recent wet weather and flooding icy stretches are expected to form, particularly on untreated surfaces.

The public should be aware of the potential for disruption to travel on the roads.

Issued at:

1552 on Thu 9 Jan 2014

Valid from:

0005 on Fri 10 Jan 2014

Valid to:

0900 on Fri 10 Jan 2014

With clearing skies and easing winds overnight Thursday temperatures will fall with surface temperatures dropping below freezing in places late on Thursday night and early on Friday morning. Large amounts of standing water remain on the ground in many places following recent wet weather and flooding. This will result in icy stretches forming in places, despite only small amounts of rainfall on Thursday.

[john pike]

ecm at 120

 

 

 

gfs at 120

 

 

totally different

[john pike]

144 ecm

 

 

cold

 

but snow cold?

 

need more runs as the low at 120 is causing big model swings

 

 

the 120 fax hopefully will make this a bit clearer

[Jason T]

ecm at 120

 

 

 

gfs at 120

 

 

totally different

 

 

Can't help thinking JP, That a bigger better picture will just evolve further down the line, Towards Mid month. Its all there just some jigsaw pieces are in the wrong place for all out Winter snowfest. The pub run will be interesting, What do you think. Think we should all pop round yours for a wee birthday drink.

[anything-but]

Just got in,deffo chilly out compared to days of late.

 

Happy birthday JP bty!

[john pike]

at 168

 

[JennyJane1]

Southernman is considering getting fish and chips for tea.

[Steve C]

at 168

 

The potential is still looking good to me.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Hi John - as a total novice when it comes to model outputs, maybe a bit more commentary (not bothered today as it's your birthday ) would help interpret the actual charts.

[Snowangel-MK]

Not surprised to see the Met O ice warning for tonight - after shopping we ended up in Frankie & Benny's (other American-Italian restaurants and bars are available) it was light and mild when we went in but 3 courses and a few drinks later (glass raised to JP on his birthday) it was dark and cold when we came out .....lovely clear and crisp night though :-)

[john pike]

hi steve

 

still there and an adjustment

 

to the west would be good

 

so much confusion at 120

 

thats where i see fi at present

[john pike]

hi chris

 

eating dinner at mo

 

be back proper soon

[JennyJane1]

wow the post just came through the door, it comes at some weird times nowadays.

[blackprince]

 

wow the post just came through the door, it comes at some weird times nowadays.

 Might depend on the tides at the mo lol

[Summer of 76]

wow the post just came through the door, it comes at some weird times nowadays.

The question is could that be tomorrows mail very early

 

Come on that's a first class joke

Edited January 9, 2014 by chris mantle

[Whereisthesnow?]

Just creeped into the mod thread and then made a dash for it. Has it all gone wrong again? I made a faux pas of telling wifey that snow might be on its way.

[john pike]

ecm at 240

 

 

the low is going under the block to our north east

 

now that should in a couple of runs set up a north east-easterly

 

this is similar to what i thought where we will need 2 attempts

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=192&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

 

its all messy at present

 

but i am still fairly confident of a cold spell soon

 

also note the atlantic looks a lot quieter on that 240 as well

[Summer of 76]

Snow Depth spreadsheets are on standby, forum members ready

 

On my whistle for a possible snow date do we

 

Phone a model thread member

Go 50 50 (think that's the met office)

Ask the audience

 

You have thirty seconds

 

On a weather related note it's not that warm at 5.4c and falling and very little wind

Edited January 9, 2014 by chris mantle

[Tom Quintavalle]

Snow Depth spreadsheets are on standby, forum members ready

 

On my whistle for a possible snow date do we

 

Phone a model thread member

Go 50 50 (think that's the met office)

Ask the audience

 

You have thirty seconds

 

On a weather related note it's not that warm at 5.4c and falling and very little wind

 

Jan 23rd 11.32 am. Absolute shoe-in!

 

Btw, has everyone got a cm ruler? No TOWIEmetres, KENTimetres or SUSSarchivedmetres, please.

 

Tom

[Sussex Jules]

Snippet from Fergie

 

 

"You are not alone! Plus colleagues at UKMO who just expressed same views! The next few days/weeks will, rest assured, prove utterly compelling viewing meteorologically and with potential for further critical developments later Jan-Feb."

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78936-model-output-discussion-1st-january-2014-06z-onwards/page-161#entry2891092

Jan 23rd 11.32 am. Absolute shoe-in!

 

Btw, has everyone got a cm ruler? No TOWIEmetres, KENTimetres or SUSSarchivedmetres, please.

 

Tom

Tom I was going for Sentimeters.

 

I'll get my coat.

[john pike]

hi tom

 

i have a water meter

 

does that count

[tadpole]

Jan 23rd 11.32 am. Absolute shoe-in!

 

Btw, has everyone got a cm ruler? No TOWIEmetres, KENTimetres or SUSSarchivedmetres, please.

 

Tom

 

I have a dress making one, must remember it starts 1/2cm in  

[Ruthie]

Happy birthday john boyo!!!!! Hope u r having some suitable drinks with your dinner this evening!!!!!! Have a super time chapppppp xxx

[JennyJane1]

Ok, let's just see if I've got this right.

 

I wait for it to snow,

 

then i pile as much snow as I can on a flat surface like the garden table,

 

then I measure it?