South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 07/01/14

[john pike]

120 fax chart

 

 

the 120 fax throws of the second low straight under the main low

 

which is good as it dislodges the high pressure to our south east

 

528 dam air closer from the north east

 

southerly flow

 

with precipitation

 

high pressure looks to shoot up in the atlantic as well

 

i have to hold on this as this is one seriously messy chart

 

and this could go anyway after this

 

if i am right we need tomorrow to see if the low in the atlantic goes south east which looks possible on this

 

hate to say it but more runs needed

Edited January 9, 2014 by john pike

[Snowangel-MK]

Yes, I think they look fabulous. I might have to have a serious look at a holiday like that. A once in a lifetime thing.

Another idea for a NW meet up maybe ? Certainly on the to do / bucket list for myself and Mr P - we have very similar lists luckily (except his omits the hot air balloon ride that's on mine lol) Crystal clear sky here but still above freezing at the moment - hopefully Jack Frost will be busy in the night to give us a nice white wake up in the morning , we will find out in a few hours mr P is on the early shift so off to bed - night all xx Edited January 9, 2014 by MKsnowangel

[Jax]

Another idea for a NW meet up maybe ?Certainly on the to do / bucket list for myself and Mr P - we have very similar lists luckily (except his omits the hot air balloon ride that's on mine lol)Crystal clear sky here but still above freezing at the moment - hopefully Jack Frost will be busy in the night to give us a nice white wake up in the morning , we will find out in a few hours mr P is on the early shift so off to bed - night all xx

Night Ali

[john pike]

ecm ensembles

 

 

 

fi on the 14th

 

gfs and ecm main runs right at the warmer end of the ensembles

 

still plenty of cold options there

 

rain

 

uptake 13th 14th 15th

 

wind

 

 

not much to speak about

 

spread on the 14th

[Jason T]

18z Control run Favours uk for Winter,  Hopefully Tomorrow better agreement will show.

 

 

 

Don't even go there with the image shape lol. 

[Bluebreezer54]

A late good evening from me, and hoping Mr John Pike had a very happy Birthday . Cheers John and thanks for all your posts.

 

On a side note, I am far from convinced about the prospects for a spell of wintry weather in our region. I think a few days of colder temperatures are more than likely, but in the longer term it looks to me as though the Atlantic is reluctant to release it's grip.

[Jax]

18z Control run Favours uk for Winter,  Hopefully Tomorrow better agreement will show.

 

 

 

Don't even go there with the image shape lol. 

NE America gets shafted then.

A late good evening from me, and hoping Mr John Pike had a very happy Birthday . Cheers John and thanks for all your posts.

 

On a side note, I am far from convinced about the prospects for a spell of wintry weather in our region. I think a few days of colder temperatures are more than likely, but in the longer term it looks to me as though the Atlantic is reluctant to release it's grip.

Think you may be right

[john pike]

hi bb

 

no problem and thankyou

 

have a look at the 120 fax chart

 

look west and north west

 

i see a block forming there shutting off the atlantic

 

however fi is probably 96 as we stand at present so anything may happen after

[Jax]

Right I am away, night all and enjoy the rest of your evening (still no frost here but it is dry so that is a blessing)

[john pike]

goodnight jax

[john pike]

 

 

and now the ensembles look cold again

 

fi on the 14th though

 

and look how dry these look

 

its safe to say

 

model watching maybe mind numbing

 

but it isnt boring

 

lets see if the 00z shows a heatwave

[lottiekent]

Still no cold nailed on the head then..ah well.

You'd think the weather could have delivered you a birthday present John! Hope you had a good day..maybe the charts will deliver your present tomorrow

[Jason T]

Good Night All, Cream Crackered. Its friday Already.  

 

Jason. 

[john pike]

thanks lottie

 

still happy tonight with the runs

 

this is typical chaos mode with them at present

 

fax chart tomorrow night might show what happens but i bet the ukmo adjust that totally different tomorrow

 

just to confuse us even more

[Wivenswold]

I've got a funny gut feeling that cold and snow will come and that tomorrow's charts will get this forum buzzing.

[ZONE 51]

 

 

this is typical chaos mode with them at present

I agree john, it's what the models do when a change is on the cards. just have to wait and wait until they organize themselves and hopefully this weekend, with a better idea by Sunday I'd expect! saying this the extreme polar vortex the US freeze and our storms have completely disrupted the climate! not surprised the models can't get hold of next weeks set up!

Edited January 10, 2014 by ElectricSnowStorm

[john pike]

hi electric

 

i am not sure i trust the 120 fax chart either to be honest

 

i suppose it keeps the interest going

 

i see some rain but no huge amounts now for a while

 

so at least while we chase the cold the flooding issue should ease greatly over the next week

 

i posted on the mod thread again

 

note to self

 

stay here

[ZONE 51]

Yes I see your post there. At least we have the dry weather for a while. concern though is the ice and fog, actually a yellow warning has been issued by the Met Office for tonight for this. (this+link next post)

-

 

Another problem is such wet ground if and when a freeze comes the ground would freeze easier, bursts pipes and frozen ground would be a worry I think, but only if a freeze arrives of course. 

Edited January 10, 2014 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ZONE 51]

 

 

Issued at: 1552 on Thu 9 Jan 2014

Valid from: 0005 on Fri 10 Jan 2014

Valid to: 0900 on Fri 10 Jan 2014

Surface temperatures will fall to around or just below freezing late on Thursday night into Friday morning across parts of England and Wales. With a lot of standing water present in many areas from the recent wet weather and flooding icy stretches are expected to form, particularly on untreated surfaces. The public should be aware of the potential for disruption to travel on the roads. With clearing skies and easing winds overnight Thursday temperatures will fall with surface temperatures dropping below freezing in places late on Thursday night and early on Friday morning. Large amounts of standing water remain on the ground in many places following recent wet weather and flooding. This will result in icy stretches forming in places, despite only small amounts of rainfall on Thursday.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1389312000&regionName=se

[john pike]

going to bed now as brain is a tad fried now

 

be back tomorrow for the next episode of what happens next

 

goodnight all

 

[Charltonkerry]

Morning all, bad night sleep for some reason, don't think we got a frost, but its dark out so a bit hard to see. Well its POETS day today so let's hope its a good one.

Been a bit busy with work so apologise for no musing this week, but unfortunately sometimes work has to come first, had training all day yesterday at our Peterborough office on Microsoft project 2013, funny how you can think software is very good then an expert comes along and suddenly you realise that you are only using 1% of the programme's capacity :-). Mind you it was nice that the Luddite what I is managed to catch the trainer out, always enjoy that. The flooding around Huntingdon was spectacular (if that the right thing to say), hopefully they where flood plains, but my, there was some water in the fields etc.

Well everyone have a nice day, and let's hope for a dry weekend and cooler more seasonal weather.

Edited January 10, 2014 by Charltonkerry

[80sWeather]

Morning all, bad night sleep for some reason, don't think we got a frost, but its dark out so a bit hard to see. Well its POETS day today so let's hope its a good one.Been a bit busy with work so apologise for no musing this week, but unfortunately sometimes work has to come first, had training all day yesterday at our Peterborough office on Microsoft project 2013, funny how you can think software is very good then an expert comes along and suddenly you realise that you are only using 1% of the programme's capacity :-). Mind you it was nice that the Luddite what I is managed to catch the trainer out, always enjoy that. The flooding around Huntingdon was spectacular (if that the right thing to say), hopefully they where flood plains, but my, there was some water in the fields etc. Well everyone have a nice day, and let's hope for a dry weekend and cooler more seasonal weather.

You must have seen Port Holme flood meadow.Looks huge in full flood from the great Ouse.Many years ago, it has frozen thus turning to the biggest ice rink ever!

[Dan the Man]

I've got a funny gut feeling that cold and snow will come and that tomorrow's charts will get this forum buzzing.

 

Its always the way in the winter - a rollercoaster ride!

 

A trend over the last couple of years that 5-6 days out there is a big ramp to extreme weather. Gradually over the next couple of days there are downgrades, which then get upgraded again around 48 hours out.

[Captain Shortwave]

Well there is a frost this morning, yay for small miracles.

[Charltonkerry]

80's weather, not certain exactly where it was, it was nearer Huntingdon on the A14 and after the first little chef (early starter breakfast, very nice) on the left hand side from memory just before you can see the old bridge on the right, certainly if it froze then that would be a better ice rink than the ones I have designed.