Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

ZONE 51

heavy rain
Heavy Rainfall and Flood Watch February 2014

63 posts in this topic

The general situation now is we have a deep low pressure on the scene, NAE surface pressure:

Posted Image

A southwesterly flow that is unstable is bringing frequent lines of showers (call them streamers if you like) these are very heavy downpours some thundery and some could contain hail, also very windy.

I want to throw in the lifted index from GFS the yellow showing the unstable airmass moving into the SW:

Posted Image

 

There has recently been thunderstorms in the SW. These unstable conditions spreading more over the BI today, I'm showing the LI charts as this will enhance the downpours this morning increasing the potential for thunderstorms and so more intense rainfall. please see the convective thread for more on the thunder.

 

Currently there are some intense lines of thundery downpours of rain as seen on the latest radar, these are affecting much of England (particularly SW) and parts of S-Wales too. 

 

 EURO4:

Posted Image

Lines of precipitation, especially the SE and it's here where the most prolonged showers could affect today.

 

Posted Image

NAE:

Posted Image

The model indicates some potentially disruptive rainfall over parts of the south, with IOW, Hampshire, Sussex and Kent also Surrey and London areas potentially severe weather today, and also the next day needs watching closely too. For Western Scotland, ppn models indicating high ppn amounts here today.

 

UKMO:

Posted Image

This is for Wednesday 8th ^^

 

NAE accumulation 00z +48:

Posted Image

 

 

(just updated the map to inclu SW for the deeper oranges after radar review)

 

My map is based on latest radar and ppn accm charts for today and tomorrow.

post-11361-0-97872900-1389075128_thumb.p

 

(Please note that I have put deeper orange over Southern areas due to radar review and downpours and thunderstorms currently active in places and expected to continue today, more prolonged rainfall at times over the next 48hrs over Southern UK) Also note that high ppn is shown to affect Western Scotland over the next 36-48hrs too)

 

ESS.

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The general situation now is we have a deep low pressure on the scene, NAE surface pressure:

Posted Image

A southwesterly flow that is unstable is bringing frequent lines of showers (call them streamers if you like) these are very heavy downpours some thundery and some could contain hail, also very windy.

I want to throw in the lifted index from GFS the yellow showing the unstable airmass moving into the SW:

Posted Image

 

There has recently been thunderstorms in the SW. These unstable conditions spreading more over the BI today, I'm showing the LI charts as this will enhance the downpours this morning increasing the potential for thunderstorms and so more intense rainfall. please see the convective thread for more on the thunder.

 

Currently there are some intense lines of thundery downpours of rain as seen on the latest radar, these are affecting much of England (particularly SW) and parts of S-Wales too. 

 

 EURO4:

Posted Image

Lines of precipitation, especially the SE and it's here where the most prolonged showers could affect today.

 

Posted Image

NAE:

Posted Image

The model indicates some potentially disruptive rainfall over parts of the south, with IOW, Hampshire, Sussex and Kent also Surrey and London areas potentially severe weather today, and also the next day needs watching closely too. For Western Scotland, ppn models indicating high ppn amounts here today.

 

UKMO:

Posted Image

This is for Wednesday 8th ^^

 

NAE accumulation 00z +48:

Posted Image

 

 

(just updated the map to inclu SW for the deeper oranges after radar review)

 

My map is based on latest radar and ppn accm charts for today and tomorrow.

Posted ImageHeavy Rainfall and Surface water Floods - Tue 7th and Wed 8th January 2014 - ESS.png

 

(Please note that I have put deeper orange over Southern areas due to radar review and downpours and thunderstorms currently active in places and expected to continue today, more prolonged rainfall at times over the next 48hrs over Southern UK) Also note that high ppn is shown to affect Western Scotland over the next 36-48hrs too)

 

ESS.

Well if that (prolonged rain)  materialises it could prove to be the final straw for many in Dorset (and doubtless parts of Somerset too). The rivers are now truly at their limits and, being largely ground water fed, it will take quite a time for river levels to drop appreciably. Meanwhile any additional rain will cause these normally 'mild' rivers to spate in an unaccustomed way. If Noah were here, even he might engage Baldrick to suggest a cunning plan!

 

Lets hope the high pressure builds quickly and then holds for a few weeks, otherwise the outlook is very stark indeed for people who live and work in the vales and valleys.

 

Edit : MetO update just issued appears to place main areas of rain away to the E and W of Dorset, perhaps we are being spared for the time being (IMBY)!

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If we get a block to the NE/E and a stalemate with atlantic fronts stalling over us this could be bad news regarding rainfall, possibly worse than now as the rain has often moved through briskly. Something to keep an eye on, several examples in the ensembles and OP runs of stalling fronts over us the weekend/early next week and big rainfall totals. Might be getting colder and less stormy but the rain problems probably haven't gone away yet.

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Edit : MetO update just issued appears to place main areas of rain away to the E and W of Dorset, perhaps we are being spared for the time being (IMBY)!

 

Backs up my post in the regional discussions. :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Backs up my post in the regional discussions. Posted Image

Yes, you beat me to it. Same concern, different prompt.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting feature heading up from the southwest through today and into the night. This frontal system bringing a lot of rainfall to western and northern areas with the low, also this developing system could have a sting in it's tail with the winds for the s/e on Thrs.

 

Accumulated ppn charts

The models look as though they are agreeing with the track of the system now developing off the southwest shores over the Atlantic, we can take a look at some charts to see where the precipitation/rain is being indicated to fall from the weather system.

Starting with the NAE 18z and 00z accumulated precipitation up to early Thrs,

NAE 18z:

Posted Image

NAE 00z

Posted Image

The model was indicating what looks like around 12-15mm over Kent but has now removed this threat, this a separate area of rainfall, that could still affect the far SE, still rain to come over the southeast, but not as much now as the heavier acc on NAE (far SE corner) has moved away.

 

The heavy falls of rain looks likely for Wales and up into Northern England and also some into the SW. But things can change when it come to intensity and local areas so something to be aware of. 

 

EURO4:

Posted Image

At +30 Shown here the deep blues over western Scotland 30-40mm, with north and west Wales 30mm acc ppn, over areas to note from this are SW England and the towards the SE, it's this area of rain the NAE has removed but is shown here on an earlier data.  

 

GFS 18z:

Posted Image

Quite similar track of the system.

 

+21 - 00z:

Posted Image

 

Acc ppn by 2100hrs tonight, indicating a dry EA/SE.

 

00z - Next 1800-2100hrs:

Posted Image

 

Next the 00z UKMO 1800-0000hrs (+48), indicating wet for many right down into the SE:

Posted Image

 

Last one now and from NAE 00z - 1500-2100hrs ppn:

Posted Image

Very wet for Wales moving up into Northern England through the evening, the rain indicated near the SE corner needs a watch. Have looked at latest satellite images. The weather system I expect could shift a more southeasterly track (tracking northeast but more southeast) bringing heavy rain to central southern and more of the SW.

Posted Image

 

 

My rain alert map I have covered the central south into the southeast as a watch. The warnings are at the moment for the Southwest, Wales, and parts of northern England, also west Scotland.

 

The warning Map goes up to Thrs early morning and is where the largest rainfall accm are expected using data from several models

post-11361-0-23716200-1389153382_thumb.p

 

ESS

 

 

Next week could be mentioning snowfall, even for the south, the pattern change is likely but the problem being be it rain or snow still goes into the rivers.

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not to much rain around for most of this weekend but keep checking the forecasts as late weekend we are keeping tracks of this weather front, UKMO ppn:

Posted Image

Looks worrying while we have the floods, normally this would be a general band of heavy rain without to much fuss. can zoom in and look ahead at this, this really a heads up to potential for further flood problems increasing next week (although the Thames still rising in places now) 

Posted Image

UKMO shows a heavy band of rain crossing from west to east by later Sunday and early Monday,

 

but GFS shows this rain weakening as it moves across the country but still some heavy bursts in there:

Posted Image

Looking also at NAE for Sunday 1200-1800hrs:

Posted Image

The model indicates a heavy band of rain over western areas.

 

My thinking is that the front on Sunday would give heavy rain to the western side and still contain heavy pulses as it moves into the east. Are update later this weekend. (had some more rain earlier but radar shows this easing off now for many apart from heavy wintry showers in the NW of UK, snow showers over Scotland today)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Monday (today)

 

GFS:

Taking a look at the Surface Pressure Tendency hpa for 1800hrs:

Posted Image

This shows rising pressure at the rear of today's rainfall, this is a high pressure ridge resulting in a drier window for Tue.

 

Before this though we have lower pressure and showery weather, the models indicating most places from north to south seeing some rainfall today, some of this heavy, some showery, and with prolonged bursts in places, a few models are indicating heavy downpours for the south, I expect the Central south and SE seeing some more prolonged rain late on Monday and a possible 12-15mm, EURO4 and NAE showing a pulse of rain for the SE during the evening,

 

EURO4:

Posted Image

 

NAE:

Posted Image

So a day of heavy showers/rain and with some thundery especially the south and possibly adding to flood problems, and this is all before mid weeks rainfall.

 

A look ahead suggest some very wet weather to come.

The GFS accumulated ppn up to later Friday:

Posted Image

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Models are indicating rain hanging around over the SE tonight, this especially over parts of Kent and possibly east Sussex, if this happens could see up at and around 10-12mm in places, it could miss and brush the Kent coast but latest radar suggests batch of heavy rain heading up from France now, are update later if I'm on here if any changes with this, but for now have done a map for the possibility of the feature/front slowing down over land.

post-11361-0-55352500-1389649467_thumb.p

 

(Map goes up to 7am Tue)

A low-medium risk map here of this happening, the medium risk for rain covering Kent and east Sussex.

 

Ground very sensitive for rain, and after todays downpours (couldn't do map for this) then more so the risk for mid week potential floods-as more prolonged heavy rainfall.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not any severe weather in the way of rainfall just yet but do keep check on the forecasts as this may change within a short space of time. For now though I can keep you updated on the rain for tonight.

 

Warm front crossing the south tonight and eventually the north. NAE-Thickness 500/1000hpa at midnight:

Posted Image

The rain falling now continuing to move east this evening and overnight with heavy bursts in there.

 

12z NAE ppn data, 2100-0300hrs:

Posted Image

 

00z EURO4 (for the same hrs)

Posted Image

 

12z GFS 0000-0300hrs:

Posted Image

 

12z GFS 0300-0600hrs:

Posted Image

 

All 3 models indicating some heavy bursts of rain on the fronts this eve/night.

EURO4 rainfall is more patchy for the south, the GFS and NAE more heavier bursts here with up to 10mm over 6hr period.

 

Looking at this data and latest radar image would suggest the front continuing eastwards bringing mild air with a band of rain some heavy this evening and tonight.

 

00z NAVGEM:

Posted Image

Indicates several mm of rainfall for many places tonight/by morning.

 

12z UKMO:

Posted Image

 

Possibly weakening towards the east tonight, as I said not any severe weather at the moment but the cold front and troughs are on the way and these could produce more heavy downpours this week...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

NMM looks wet, 50-75mm possible over hills across the South over the next 3 days

 

Posted Image

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Models signally potentially large totals of rain up to Thursday afternoon 20-30mm+ for Wales, Northwest England, Southern and Western Scotland, a cold front moves east Wednesday (today), Rainfall amounts up to 10-15mm for south inclu SE possible late today into night (inclu the heavy shws Thrs)

NAVGEM:

Posted Image

 

NAE acc ppn on the 18z:

Posted Image

NAE ppn on the 00z (recent)

Posted Image

Things change with the amounts of rain the models indicate until on the day, would know later more detail so something to keep watch on today.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The end of January could be as wet as the end of December looking at the charts, with raging zonality and deep lows carrying lots of rain throughout the GFS ensembles and the various model OP runs. Wouldn't be surprised to see flooding hitting the headlines again soon.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The awful thing is that CFSv2 has been forecasting February to be at least as wet as January for several weeks now. Dismal.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Recent radar image (approx 1 hour ago)

Posted Image

Band of rain some heavy from Scotland down to SW England.

 

Zooming in to the south:

post-11361-0-64158400-1389809480_thumb.j

A pulse of heavy rain heading towards the SE/EA for this evening/night.

 

A cold front is moving from the west to the east through this evening and overnight followed by troughs of heavy showers. 

 

GFS 12z Thickness 500/1000hpa (darker greens to the west are cooler air following CF)

Posted Image

 

12z NAE 1800-0000hrs ppn:

Posted Image

 

12z NAE(up to 3am)

Posted Image

Shows a heavy area of rain developing over Central northern England (Midlands up to Yorkshire) this is shown to affect through the night, so some heavy rainfall here I expect overnight

 

12z NAE 0000-0600hrs ppn:

Posted Image

 

Need to look out for heavy showers around for Thursday for many places. Heavy rain could affect the east of Scotland and then the north of Scotland though Thursday.

 

12z NAE 0900-1500hrs ppn:

Posted Image

 

Thursday daytime NAE indicates a shower line (rain streamer?) up the Irish sea, now this clipping into the east side of Northern Ireland and could affect for a long period of time.

12z NAE 1200-1800hrs ppn:

Posted Image

The model indicates showers lines affecting southern and western coast through Thursday some getting inland I would expect.

 

6z EURO4 1200-1800hrs ppn:

Posted Image

EURO4 indicates the inland showers more clearly, see the heavy deep blue are on the tip of N-Ireland, these moving inland and there are MO warnings out for the downpours to affect Northern Ireland on Thrs/Fri.

 

12z EURO4 ppn acc up to midnight Friday (Thrs night)

Posted Image

 

Highest amounts: 30mm being indicated for the east side of N-Ireland. 10-12mm SE/EA. 20 perhaps isolated pockets of 30mm for Central south-this could hit the SE. 10-20mm the SW.  up to 20mm Wales. 

possible 20mm for Central northern England overnight.

This is one models precipitation accumulations this evening, through Thrs and up to Midnight 17/1. (not inclu Fri) other models show similar but different slightly varied areas.

 

So some places seeing extra surface flooding and the watch is on for rain affecting Northern Ireland Thur/Fri. Are update were and when possible is any changes.

 

12z NAE 2100hr  - surface pressure (low pressure on the scene)

Posted Image

 

GFS -Surface Pressure Tendency for Thursday (tmw)1500hrs:

Posted Image

Low pressure bringing bands/showers of heavy and thundery rain but not all areas would get them to severe. The outlook is for more of the same.

 

(don't have time now to do any rain maps but are take a look later if I can to do a map for Thursday)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Have done an alert rain map for Thursday (today) Heavy downpours at times some may be thundery, the heavy rain over eastern England should move away later then moving up into eastern Scotland (have highlighted the heavy rain now affecting the Humber area)

 

Other areas heavy downpours some lines of these coming through, have highlighted the yellow as areas most at risk of the worst downpours to day and flooding risk.

 

Northern Ireland have highlighted the high risk of prolonged rain 'rain chain' these heavy rainfalls of continued showers affecting here into Friday piling into the same areas mostly the eastern side, so quite a risk of flooding here. 

 

In the conditions of floods I use my yellow tone for 12mm+ and orange for 20-30mm or more.

 

post-11361-0-52399900-1389838876_thumb.p

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Friday 17 January (Today)

 

Recent radar images show heavy showers with some very heavy downpours over southern and western England and south Wales, some of these also clipping the north Wales coast, heavy showers over the eastern side of Northern Ireland, some also affecting the Isle of man too.

 

Some Heavy rain could affect eastern parts of Scotland and also Shetland today.

 

For the rest of tonight and through Friday continuing with much the same conditions and affecting the same areas as mentioned above. Can't rule out heavy showers in other places but the areas mentioned is where I expect the heaviest and largest rainfall totals on Friday.

 

Precipitation max accumulation data (up to 0000hrs today)

 

12z EURO4:

Posted Image

 

18z NAE:

Posted Image

 

12z NAVGEM:

Posted Image

12z CMC:

Posted Image

18z GFS:

Posted Image

 

 

18z GFS Surface Pressure Tendency 1500hrs:

Posted Image

Indicates steady to slightly rising pressure generally, falling pressure far north.

 

1800hrs:

Posted Image

Indicates steady/rising pressure generally.

 

Rain warning map for today:

 

Have done an alert map to highlight the heavy rain and surface flooding risk areas for today.

Flooding continues and likely increasing that risk for some areas today with the heavy downpours. 

 

post-11361-0-64930200-1389927648_thumb.p

 

UPDATE 4AM BASED ON LATEST RADAR expected heaviest rain downpours are moving a little further north, prolonged downpours merging now across the SE as per forecast.

 

Map update to include areas more north of London area, and areas northeast of Bristol channel (Worcester)

 

post-11361-0-23884400-1389932994_thumb.p

 

Risk of gusty winds, lightning and Thunder also some hail.

4 people like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Pretty quiet on the radar front overall. Whether anything will happen later on tonight is another matter.

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Pretty quiet on the radar front overall. Whether anything will happen later on tonight is another matter.

Not now the MO have stuck a warning out. :lol:I get well over an inch of rain here and no warning, makes no sense to me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not now the MO have stuck a warning out. Posted Image

I get well over an inch of rain here and no warning, makes no sense to me.

Places flooded last night under that shower band in the south east, so I think it may be the thinking behind the warning, as any more showers/rain will just raise the flooding higher.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Places flooded last night under that shower band in the south east, so I think it may be the thinking behind the warning, as any more showers/rain will just raise the flooding higher.

 

I'm suprised after 30-40mm in some places across S England over last 24 hours that were was not even a yellow warning, that's about half a month's rain falling on saturated flooded ground? Reading inbetween the lines of the warning now out I see them saying "ooops.. we kinda missed that one!".

2 people like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Met Office weather warning for parts of SW England and Wales for heavy persistent rain moving up from the south tonight on an occluded front. The rain could be intense and looks likely to stall so some areas are likely to see a lot of rain in a short period of time. 15-25mm in places, perhaps as much as 30-35mm in the wettest spots.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/

 

A complex set of frontal systems will move up into the southwest of Britain overnight and during Saturday morning and afternoon. The associated rainbands are likely to slow or stall for a few hours, before resuming their eastward progress later in the day. 10 to 20 mm of rain could fall over a fairly wide area, while a few locations could see upwards of 30 mm resulting in some impacts.

 

Posted Image  NMM accumulations:   Posted Image

 

 

 

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The angry mass of rain is starting to move into SW England now on the radar. The Met Office warning map looks about right for the largest totals, Devon area into Wales, 25-35mm in places, not good considering 25-30mm around here over past 24 hours.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Saturday 18 January (today)

 

Latest radar: There is heavy rain now continuing to affect the SW and Wales with some very heavy downpours mixed in. Rain is now heading up from the s/sw towards the SE arriving in a few hours I expect, some heavy.  A shower/streamer has formed over the Irish Sea, this could affect the Isle of Man and the east side of Northern Ireland soon.

 

Todays rain: Heavy rain is likely to intensify over the SW and Wales through today with 30-50mm possible although 25-35mm more likely, flooding becoming a problem and expected disruption could be quite severe with the flood situation, the areas where the heaviest rainfalls are likely is not certain at this stage. Heavy rain should move further north through Saturday affecting most western areas and up into Northern England, heavy rain probably affecting parts of Scotland, this most likely over the south, west and the east side of Scotland. Some signals for heavy rain to affect Shetland today.

 

Other areas of southern England (away from the SW), the SE and EA, some heavy showers and rain expected here but I don't see large ppn totals not above 20mm, but 10-15mm possible and a risk of 20mm but a low risk.

 

Accumulated rainfall data:

 

00z NAE +30hr:

(up to Sun 0600hrs)

Posted Image

 

 

18z EURO4 +33hr:

(up to Sun 0300hrs)

Posted Image

 

00z GFS +27hr:

(up to Sun 0300hrs)

Posted Image

 

12z NAVGEM +42hr:

(up to Sun 0600hrs)

Posted Image

 

12z CMC +39hr:

(up to Sun 0300hrs)

Posted Image

00z GFS Surface Pressure Tendency:

(0600hrs this morning)

Posted Image

 

Midnight:

Posted Image

 

My rain warning alert map:

 

post-11361-0-18288600-1390017790_thumb.p

 

(new on the map, accumulated ppn/rain in mm guide and color key to map alerts) 

3 people like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

looking very wet in places again to-day

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Similar Content

    • By Scribbler
      My brother, who lives in southwest France wrote to me the other day about a strange experience.  So here’s his words and your thoughts will be appreciated.
      “It was getting on for 7pm (on 30th March) when I drove home from town (Riberac) and still nicely light with some weak sun shining from the west (where else!)   As I drove out of town I was heading west for five minutes and then turned 90° in a southerly direction directly towards home.   (As I've often mentioned) I live literally on top of a hill which is surrounded by valleys and a very large flat agricultural area which spreads away towards the north and the west. Well, it was through this flat area that I was now travelling. At the moment there's very little growing in the fields but they have all been ploughed so it appears to be quite an immense area and you can see for miles.
      At first I didn't notice but soon realised that, although the sky all around and down to the horizons was light with the sunlight reflecting on distant white clouds, overhead was the most enormous black cloud, miles bigger even than a Vogon Constructor Fleet ship, that seemed to be almost stationary.    The sort of black that could not even reflect light back.   I was so amazed by this sight that I actually stopped my van and just sat there marvelling at this 'object'. It had also started to rain, great big blobs of the stuff not at all like raindrops and that reminded me that Meteo France had very recently mentioned the possibility of 'orage' which is thunderstorm and possibly hail.
      When I returned home I checked on the weather radar to see if there was any rain due. There wasn't and there was only one area of rain on the map which was more or less round and corresponded exactly with the cloud I had watched. So I pulled out on the radar and there wasn't another area of rain in France apart from along the North coast and a couple of small patches towards Paris.”
      So what caused that small ‘blob’ of cloud and rain?   It was divorced from all other things such as fronts, depressions or even hills.  I guess that the low sun added to the depth and darkness of the cloud, by the way.   Personally I suggest that it was a small eddy in the pressure that created a mini-depression but I’d be pleased to hear someone else’s thought – especially someone who knows about weather.
      PS Sorry his screenshots come from another weather site!
       
       
       





    • By doctor32
      Hi all.
      I am an amature DJ and also a keen weather enthusiast and been a member on here for a little while now and so pleased i found this site as i have learned so much more about the wonderful weather we have. So in return i have decided to put my mixing skills to the test and do a special weather related mix...
      So if you can please leave any songs you can think of that are related to the weather be it by song title or song /artist themselves. I will choose the best ones and create a mix for you all to enjoy soon.
      Thanks in advance 'doctor'
    • By Steeve88
      Hello everyone,
       
      I've just introduced this new topic about Greece. As you may know Greece doesn't mean just sun, fair weather and beaches. Furthermore, the very complicated orography can affect the weather from a place to another even if the distance is just a few Kilometers. So, I will use this topic to prove what I said . Of course, if anyone has any comments, queries or even matterial from Greece, he/she can upload.
    • By ZONE 51
      Rain Watch
      Hi everyone, have decided to start up a separate topic to look more closely at expected rainfall accumulations in the days ahead. It's a concern that more new floods are possible if not likely through this weekend and into next week, this coming from several large scale weather systems and possible Atlantic storms hitting the UK and ROI over the next 7 days at least,  it's likely that some breaks in the rain will occur at times though.   
      I'm not going to hide the fact that severe floods in new areas are possibly on the way I say possibly even if I think likely, which I do.
      Below I've put on a rain alert map created from precipitation data models of which the one's I have access, please use my map as a general guide of where the heaviest rain could be accumulated over the next 48hrs or so,  please do allow for some small adjustments do not take the map as 100 percent set in stone, usually the expected accumulations of rainfall may be more or less in any one area and exact locations can change, I might not be able to update map.
       
      (Map can be shared where you like)

      Map expires MON 0300hrs - January 4
      W = on the map this means that I am watching for upgrades of 30mm or more.
      Light yellow + W =30mm - rainfall may get accumulated up to 30mm but may upgrade to 40mm for a level 1 so is under a watch zone.
      Yellow = 40mm - 50mm accm rain
      Orange = 50mm - 80mm accm rain
      Red = 80mm - 100mm accm rain
      Dark red = 100+ accm rain.
      Many areas seeing rain this heavy at times some very heavy and prolonged, expect 10mm-25mm generally.
      Some of the largest rainfalls likely to occur over higher ground.
      For the winds associated with these weather systems/storms likely gale or severe gale at times please see other threads and warnings. 
       
      Please post anything related to rainfall forecasting, model ppn data, alerts and warnings, your own rain maps and forecasts.  
       
       
      ZONE51.
       
       
       
       
       
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.