One of the mildest Winters for some years?

[summer blizzard]

This winter so far has been comparable to 02 and 07, one of the worst.

[The PIT]

Ooh GFS has thrown a little curve ball in deep FI shows a brief period of very mild weather. Snow free Jan I would say now 80 - 20 in favor.

[4wd]

 

In S Lakes, av Jan temp is about 6oC - every day execpt 12th has reached 6oC

So what were the minimums, and the average so far.The January average here is 5C and we are about on that at present.

[Nick L]

I think this is definitely up there with the horror winters of old. I don't think I've ever got through the first 2 months of winter without seeing snow, but that is now looking very plausible. 

[Geordiesnow]

Even though its been a mild winter so far, I think its been an interesting one in respect we saw the other aspect of winter with those deep low pressure systems and a lot of rainfall, yes the consequences are very unfortunate but as a enthusiast this winter has not been too bad so far, its just lacking any real significant cold so far. I could only think of one proper cold set up so far and that was a brief NW'ly sometime in December and we were fortunate too see a brief snow flurry although I understand parts of lowland Scotland did see some lying snow. 

 

Unlike the winter of 88/89, we have not seen any type of Bartlett set up or any very mild SW'ly set ups although the 18Z does show one! I think the above average temps may come from more from the lack of night time frosts rather than anything exceptionally high day time maxes! 

[March Blizzard]

To me the standout feature of this winter up until now has been the complete lack of anything cold. Even in the mildest of winters you get the odd cold snap but this winter has been completely devoid of even that.

Most mild winters are 5 parts very mild to 1 part cold. This winter so far has been 5 parts mild to 0 parts cold, in other words - neat.

[Jax]

depends where you live though i guess, we have had a few minor frosts here this winter.

[SnowObsessor90]

Unlike the winter of 88/89, we have not seen any type of Bartlett set up or any very mild SW'ly set ups although the 18Z does show one! I think the above average temps may come from more from the lack of night time frosts rather than anything exceptionally high day time maxes! 

If there's Silver lining at all to take from this Winter it's fact that the Sun hasn't been afraid to make appearances which most likely wouldn't have been case IMBY under those sort of setups .

[The PIT]

Can safely write off January I think. Latest runs show no progress by the block. At least we will get the odd day below normal but that's it.

[leicsnow]

I haven't been following this forum much at all recently (probably because things have been so uninspiring). I'm mostly a lurker now anyway so you probably don't know who I am.

 

I was wondering, is there any chance this winter will end up completely snowless (i.e. no days of lying snow)? For a lot of locations (namely my location) anyway?

Edited January 18, 2014 by leicsnow

[The PIT]

I haven't been following this forum much at all recently (probably because things have been so uninspiring). I'm mostly a lurker now anyway so you probably don't know who I am.

 

I was wondering, is there any chance this winter will end up completely snowless (i.e. no days of lying snow)? For a lot of locations (namely my location) anyway?

If Jan is for some a very strong possibility. Thet are signs that the Atlantic maybe firing up again fully and if we enter another zonal period these can easily last four weeks or so. But that's an if.

[damianslaw]

I haven't been following this forum much at all recently (probably because things have been so uninspiring). I'm mostly a lurker now anyway so you probably don't know who I am.

 

I was wondering, is there any chance this winter will end up completely snowless (i.e. no days of lying snow)? For a lot of locations (namely my location) anyway?

 

Its rare for most parts of the country away from far SW to go through a whole winter without at least seeing some snow falling from the sky at some point. Achieving actual snow cover is more difficult and I suspect there have been winters which have failed to deliver a snow cover in a number of spots - most likely coastal locations particularly in the southwest of the country.

 

I don't have some stats for a number of places and between 1939/40 and 1992/93 winter (generally a snowy period for the UK bar early 70's and late 80's) the following winters failed to deliver a snow cover at 9am in the following locations -

 

York - 1991/92

Goudhurst in Kent - 1960/61, 1988/89, 1991/92, 1992/93

Ilfracombe - too many to mention - 29 in total!

Armagh - 43/44, 8/89, 91/92 and 92/93

Kew- 42/43, 43/44, 60/61, 66/67, 72/73, 80/81, 83/84, 87/88, 88/89, 89/90, 91/92, 92/93.

 

Admittedly there may have been temporary snow cover at some stage in these years for these places.

 

There is long way to go yet - and I would be very surprised if many places by the end of feb have failed to at least seen some snow falling.

 

Here - the lack of snow so far has been notable, there hasn't even been temporary snow cover at the 1,000ft mark, and only a few shortlived occasions where it has got down to the 1,500ft mark. The tops of the fells have been mostly snow free all winter so far - a very poor showing! - I've seen more snow on the tops in May!  However, any polar maritime airstream from now on in should deliver the goods down to quite modest levels and any arctic maritime airstream right through until April can bring snow down to very low levels.

 

Its worth reminding ourselves of winter 06/07 which managed to squeeze out a shortlived snowy spell in early feb against a bleak background for cold chances. Winter 07/08 was followed by snow in March and early April. Winter 04/05 produced snowy goods at the end of Feb into March - ditto 92/93 and 03/04 and 05/06 and 94/95.

 

Winter 97/98 another one comparable to how this winter has panned out so far produced some snow on the last day of the winter with another shortlived fall in March followed by snow in April.

 

Many places had to wait until mid Feb in 2000 for there first and only snowfall of that season.

 

So there are many examples when many places have had to wait until the latter part of Feb into early March for there first snowfalls of the season and indeed in some years such as 07/08 the only measureable snow of the season came later in March and even April! Equally there have been winters such as 88/89 and 91/92 which in much of lowland England and Wales have failed to deliver a snow cover in the morning at least. I remember 1991/92 being completely absent of any snowfall bar one day in March - a very poor winter.

Edited January 18, 2014 by damianslaw

[The PIT]

I've got to admit for the chances for this winter to be the mildest ever here since we've started recording is very slim. As log as the models show a block to the east in it's present position we won't achieve it.  We may achieve snow less though.

[4wd]

So far as I can see it isn't mild so far either apart from December.

It's just hovering around 5C all the time when other years we get a week near zero and a week near 10C.

[Summer Sun]

Couple of tweets from Nick Miller

 

met office confirms mild, wet winter so far but rightly says long way to go yet. Feb could still be cold and remember spring last year!

 

met office says UK overall has had 72% of normal January rainfall already. England and Wales wetter than Scotland and Northern Ireland.

[TonyH]

Couple of tweets from Nick Miller

 

met office confirms mild, wet winter so far but rightly says long way to go yet. Feb could still be cold and remember spring last year!

 

met office says UK overall has had 72% of normal January rainfall already. England and Wales wetter than Scotland and Northern Ireland.

That seems low I would have thought overall was getting close to 100%.

[TonyH]

So far as I can see it isn't mild so far either apart from December.

It's just hovering around 5C all the time when other years we get a week near zero and a week near 10C.

Surely 5c mean is mild for your location, this site not so far away has a mean Jan max of 5.5c

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/averages/19812010/sites/high_mowthorpe.html

[johnholmes]

That seems low I would have thought overall was getting close to 100%.

 

have you data to prove Met are wrong?

I mean other than your locality?

[MAF]

i think the clue is in the word "average" and so far winter is not over with. OK some may have had above average temps for last 6 - 8 weeks, but hey, another 6 - 8 weeks to go. so i see nothing mild about this winter until its spring

[Summer of 95]

Did anywhere in England or Wales below 300m get a morning with lying snow in 1991/2? York, Kent, Armagh, Edinburgh and Anglesey (those two I know from other sites) all failed, so did here- I don't even remember seeing any on the hills that year.

[cheese]

Leeds had two ice days in Jan 1992 funnily enough, but no snow fell on those days. February was very mild.

Edited January 19, 2014 by cheese

[feb1991blizzard]

Did anywhere in England or Wales below 300m get a morning with lying snow in 1991/2? York, Kent, Armagh, Edinburgh and Anglesey (those two I know from other sites) all failed, so did here- I don't even remember seeing any on the hills that year.

 

Yes, 2 days, an early week in jan (1 and a half inches) and a day in the second half of feb (2 inches), in the west midlands, I will dig the charts out when I have time, for me 92-93 was even worse, I know that wasn't the case for many areas and 91-92 was the worst, I think 91-92 was one of my most eagerly awaited winters as a kid but just didn't deliver, glad that finally 93-94 delivered a timely reassurance that global warming and cfc's wasn't totally the end of uk winters!

[Summer of 95]

Yes there were some ice days here in 91-2, it certainly wasn't the mildest winter of all. Just all the cold spells were bone dry.

1992-3 had no lying snow here either, despite quite a cold December. We got one day in Nov 1993 that was the first since Feb 1991, that's a easily the longest spell without lying snow I remember.

[Weather-history]

I saw fog precipitate during January 1992, gave a real winter wonderland scene. There was wet snow during mid February 1992 but other than that nothing for 1991-92 winter months.

It was the anticyclonicity that was the killer for snow. 1991-92 and 1992-93 weren't especially mild but it had anticylonic spells.

The most snowless winters tend to be the ones that have mild zonal and dry anticylonic spells mix. With zonality, you always got a chance of seeing something from a northerly toppler say but you get anticylonic spells as well, well there is no chance of snow in those spells.

1974-75 had a very mild zonal spell through December and January but even then some areas did see snow in the second half that January. The pattern changed in February but straight into an anticylonic spell and that just about killed snow chances for the rest of the winter. Snow came in the spring.

2007-2008 saw anticylonic spells in December and February which stopped snow chances and what snow chances happened were in the zonal pattern and from the short lived NEly high.

[iand61]

IMBY I wouldn't class this winter so far as being very mild, just consistently the wrong side of marginal for snow.

Some days have recorded maximums just into double figures but over the majority of the time we have been peaking at around 5-6c with cold wet rain and, at the best, a little sleet mixed in.

The main concern has been the little difference between max and min with reasonably cold days of around 3-4c not dropping below freezing and even the occasionally clear night has not resulted in a frost, other than a bit on the cars and grass.