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DisruptiveGust

Atlantic Storms January 2014

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Please continue with the discussion here folks Posted Image

 

Apologies Coast! Tried to move your last few posts over here but I've lost them in the process! In my defence I have more or less just woken up.... :(

Edited by Liam J

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Please continue with the discussion here folks Posted Image

 

Apologies Coast! Tried to move your last few posts over here but I've lost them in the process! In my defence I have more or less just woken up.... Posted Image

 

No worries, I think I know what was in them:

 

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Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 06 Jan 2014 06:00 to Tue 07 Jan 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 06 Jan 2014 00:28
Forecaster: TUSCHY
A level 1 was issued for parts of Ireland, Scotland, UK, France, Benelux, Germany, Sweden and Denmark mainly for severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado risk.
 
SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION
 
What a big surprise ... we have to talk about an intense extratropical cyclone north of Ireland, which shifts to the NE during the forecast. Once again, phase diagrams show a rather impressive warm-seclusion with that one. This cyclone has already seen its peak strength and the ~ 950 hPa pressure around 06Z should increase by 10-15 hPa/24h. Nevertheless, a winter-like intense wind field is forecast along its southern fringe, affecting Ireland, UK, Scotland, parts of France, Germany and Benelux all the way into Denmark and S-Sweden.
 
This setup resembles past ones with modest (200-500 J/kg) offshore SBCAPE and very strong shear, especially in the lower troposphere. Enhanced convection remains bound to the left exit regions of numerous 40-50 m/s mid-layer jet streaks and to numerous more or less pronounced impulses, which will be embedded in the brisk westerlies. Expect an isolated to scattered thunderstorm potential for all of the highlighted areas through the complete forecast period....especially along the westward facing coastal areas of Ireland and UK. Severe wind gusts will be the main hazard next to an isolated tornado risk. Aforementioned mid-layer waves will be discussed a bit in respect of more organized line structures to the S and E of UK/Ireland:
 
One wave exits UK during the late morning hours, crosses the S/C North Sea from W to E and approaches Denmark from the west during the afternoon/evening hours. Especially offshore areas (North Sea) and Denmark/S-Sweden should see adequate support (forcing, shear and instability) for organized showers/isolated thunderstorms with a severe wind gust and isolated tornado threat. Any line-up of storms could result in a swath of severe wind gusts. 
Further south, over the Netherlands and NW-Germany, forcing will be weaker, but should still help to initiate deeper updrafts. Severe gusts will be the main hazard. In case of short line segments of storms or a bad handling of instability in current model outputs, an isolated tornado risk can't be ruled out (1 km shear aoa 15-20 m/s and 300 m^2/s^2 SRH-1). As past events showed, good forcing could offset meager looking CAPE parameters, especially in global model data. However, placement along the anticyclonic shear side of the mid-layer jet and attendant warmer mid-layers lowers confidence in more widespread/long-lived convection quite a bit. 
 
Another wave affects N-France during the afternoon/evening hours and Benelux and C/N Germany during the overnight hours. This event has more positive signs for the development of an organized line of storms. Increasing mid-layer wave height results in a coupled mid/upper jet configuration with an healthy looking vorticity lobe racing east/northeast. This impulse overspreads a tongue of rather moist low/mid-level air with storm motion vectors aoa 70 kt. There are signals in the BL wind field of numerous convergence zones, which will be aligned near parallel to the background flow. Current thoughts are that an organized line of deeper convection (LEWP-ish) evolves over N-France with a rapid motion to the NE. Bowing line segments (severe to damaging wind gusts) and isolated tornadoes are forecast. Would also not be surprised about marginal/isolated large hail with strongest cores. With mixed model signals however, confidence in such a scenario is not yet high enough to go with a level 2 area. Even without a line of storms, enhanced convection should support downward mixing of 20-25 m/s winds from 850 hPa.

 

 

 
A sense of humour creeping into their first line!

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Looks like the West then middle section of the UK takes the brunt today:

 

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Thunderstorm threat down the West side:

 

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Some impressive rain amounts according to Met O:

 

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Looks like there is still a lot more to come today:

 

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Hopefully the worst of it will stay South of us?

 

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Morning all, nice and quiet here on the island, the sun is out, but it will be short lived, high tide was not as bad as expected, however today's high tide could bring problems.

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Morning stats

 

993.0mb

rising - 1.3mb/hr

27.6 max gust (last hour)

Soil moisture - 22.0cb

Humidity - 88%

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It's sunny but very windy, lots of floods about, they look worse now the sun is out. I'm hoping for some hefty showers later. :)

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Wind is increasing slightly now but nothing unusual up here for the time of year

 

no forecast has suggested it would be, from my recollection; away from exposed western and southern coasts, windy with a mix of sunshine and showers, the heaviest of these largely over and west of the main hill regions but some getting across as daytime heating aids convection.

The worst conditions for anywhere already with flooding problems being not helped by hefty showers and coastal areas being punded by large seas.

gusting 30mph in my back garden which is quite high for the sheltered position.

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Its bootiful sunshine here, with a light breeze, its safe to say i can go for a walk on the beach with the dog Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

and also take a walk on one of the Island's famous fossil beaches

 

Oh wait, i cant its high tide soon, i will go later Posted Image

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These images were taken by photographer George Karbus this morning at 7:30 in Lahinch. You can see what the beach looks like on a calm day.. His facebook page can be found here:https://www.facebook.com/pages/George-Karbus-Photography/125621960817621
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

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Edited by Polar Maritime

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It's sunny but very windy, lots of floods about, they look worse now the sun is out. I'm hoping for some hefty showers later. Posted Image

And they certainly came rolling through, well at least in Bournemouth they did for most of the afternoon.

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A blustery day as expected. Had one heavy shower that produced a peak rate of 55mm and hour at 15:30.Every bodies where the storm is  and I say this is it.

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Large waves in Portugal today !!!!!http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fA9_E4HdLMI

wow! not a tsunami though but looks a bit like it, Sneaker wave

Edited by JK1

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Large waves in Portugal today !!!!!http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fA9_E4HdLMI

Interesting video thanks, but is their phone from the 1990's with that quality?! :D

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Been relentlesly very windy today, the longest windiest period of all these storms I think. Gusts especially strong from passing showers, must be 60mph or so.

 

Not a storm, but can't post this in the MOD thread because that's ONLY about looking for cold and snow.

 

A frontal wave moving up from the SW looks likely to bring another spell of heavy rain to the south on Wednesday, another inch or so in places in a fairly short time, not good news considering the current waterlogged conditions. Some uncertainties on track, Met Office have it affecting mainly southern parts while ECM takes it further NW with NMM somewhere in the middle, somewhere to get another soaking though.

 

NMM Posted ImageECM Posted Image

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Another wave feature possibly to bring heavy rain to S/SE England tomorrow night too, from GFS 18z

 

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Edited by Bobby

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Very windy evening here, dry but the wind is howling. 

 

Looks like things will be quietening down on the storm front for a while. 

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