Atlantic Storms January 2014

[Sainsbo]

Luckily there are still some discrepancies between the 3 main models in terms of the track and intensity of the possible low at the end of the week. That being said though, some of those Pertubations look awful!

[Bobby]

ECM ens 12z mean charts at +120 show a low in the 950s, that's very strong agreement on a storm, several runs must take it a fair bit lower. Uncertainty on the strength of the winds as the low may be too far North to affect us much but the details soon to be ironed out. More certainty on lots of rain though

 

Edited January 21, 2014 by Bobby

[Liam J]

Even if the main low doesn't strike our shores it looks like the associated cold front crossing the UK will deliver some very heavy squally rain and potentially damaging winds. The GFS had a period gales or severe gales affecting N&W Britain. 

 

 

18z brings the low a bit closer to NW UK again.

 

 

Edited January 21, 2014 by Liam J

[tinybill]

bbc  weather  not  liking  weekend  weather  at  all at the  moment

[Coast]

Even if the main low doesn't strike our shores it looks like the associated cold front crossing the UK will deliver some very heavy squally rain and potentially damaging winds. The GFS had a period gales or severe gales affecting N&W Britain. 

 

All a bit further North, but still affecting much of the UK and more rain due:

 

 

 

 

[Mapantz]

Could do with a drop of rain here, the last 9 hours have been too dry!

[Zenarcher]

For Sundays storm the models today seem to have better agreement on the tracking and for it to end up to the South of Iceland. But it will bring severe gales across the North West on Sunday where mean speeds are forecast to be around 40 to 50mph and gusts of 65 to 75mph.

 

The rain looks to be the main concern at the moment though the Met Office have a early watch out for all of the UK on Monday,

 

Another spell of wet and very windy weather will cross the UK from the west during Sunday. Heavy rain and gales are likely to affect most areas for a time with further flooding possible in prone areas, particularly southern parts of England and Wales where the ground remains saturated following earlier rain.

The public should be aware of the possible disruption to transport and the continuing risk of flooding in prone areas.

Edited January 22, 2014 by weathermaster

[Liam J]

Yes, the winds have been mentioned within the blanket warning, 60-70mph for exposed locations during the fronts passage. The Northern Isles are in for a battering over the next with a separate wind warning in force for gusts as high as 80mph during Friday & Saturday. 

 

Fun & games come Sunday - expect a pretty active cold front sweeping in from the west, possibly with some hail and thunder + squally wind gusts. Further disruption, flooding and potential damage to trees along with minor structural damage especially weakened and loosened slates etc from all the previous stormy weather we've had this winter.

Edited January 22, 2014 by Liam J

[Coast]

Wet and windy weather set to return

 

Since the stormy weather that saw us through Christmas and New Year, the weather has been relatively calmer. Yes, there have still been days of rain, but they've been interspersed with drier, brighter days, offering respite to the areas that were hit hard by flooding. However, there are signs that it will turn more unsettled later this week and into next week, delivering more wet and windy weather that will no doubt raise concerns about the risk of flooding.

 

 

This winter has been remarkable in comparison to recent years, with temperatures above average and a distinct lack of the snowfalls that we’ve become used to in recent winters. Why is it turning more unsettled? Once again, the jet stream is going to be powering up over the next few days over the Atlantic Ocean, which will develop some deep areas of low pressure. However, in comparison to the stormy weather we had earlier in the month, there are subtle differences. Forthcoming areas of low pressure will reach their peak intensity to the north and west of the UK, rather than directly over us. So the severity of any wet and windy weather is likely to be a good notch down from the storms that hit us through Christmas and New Year. Nevertheless, with the ground still saturated and the river levels still relatively high, it will only take modest amounts of rain to cause problems.

 

How much rain is likely to fall?

 

There are still uncertainties with the exact details of where areas of low pressure will form and move, but the weather computer models are showing a definite trend. Much of the UK will see 15-30mm during the next five days, with western areas seeing 30-50mm, with that rising to as much as 75mm over the hills and mountains. The first batch of heavy rain will arrive on Friday, for which the Met Office have issued a yellow warning for southern coastal counties of England. The Environment Agency’s three day flood risk forecast (image below) highlights a similar area to be at risk of flooding in the coming days, although at this stage the risk is low.

However, this could well change into next week as successive bands of rain spread in off the Atlantic.

 

Any sign of colder weather?

 

At the moment, there are no signs of any significantly colder weather, although there will be bursts of colder air on the backside of low pressure systems as they cross the UK. This will bring a risk of some snow – mainly over the hills and mountains. But there is a chance next week that places closer to sea-level could see a few flakes, although the detail is still uncertain and it’s unlikely to amount to much.

 

 

 

http://blogs.channel4.com/liam-dutton-on-weather/wet-windy-weather-set-return/5731#more-5731

[Summer Sun]

UK wide early warning for heavy rain out for Sunday

 

 

 

Issued at: 1218 on Wed 22 Jan 2014

Valid from: 0600 on Sun 26 Jan 2014

Valid to: 2345 on Sun 26 Jan 2014

 

Another spell of wet and very windy weather will cross the UK from the west during Sunday. Heavy rain and gales are likely to affect most areas for a time with further flooding possible in prone areas, particularly southern parts of England and Wales where the ground remains saturated following earlier rain. The public should be aware of the possible disruption to transport and the continuing risk of flooding in prone areas.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

Another Atlantic frontal system is forecast to cross the UK during Sunday. Most areas will see a period of heavy rain and very strong winds, perhaps also some snow for a time over northern hills. Rainfall accumulations of 15 to 25mm are expected quite widely with 35mm or more locally, especially over southern parts of England and Wales. Expect southerly gusts 40 to 50 mph quite widely, particularly with the passage of the front, and probably peaking 60 to 70 mph or more around exposed coasts and headlands.

 

There is still some considerable uncertainty in the details of this system and this warning will be updated in the coming days.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1390694400&regionName=uk

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Here we go again.... PV showing it's ugly face to us and banging out the low pressures 

[Liam J]

Some difference between the UKMO & GFS on the positioning  of the low at 96 hours out, interesting few days of model watching coming up. UK at risk of some exceptionally windy weather (and very wet) if the centre tracks over land with this intensity. 

 

 

Edited January 22, 2014 by Liam J

[Bobby]

Some difference between the UKMO & GFS on the positioning  of the low at 96 hours out, interesting few days of model watching coming up. UK at risk of some exceptionally windy weather if the centre tracks over land with this intensity. 

 

 UW96-21.gifgfs-0-96.png

 

Yes the strongest winds just staying away from us but the 12z runs seem to have moved things further S. Just a small adjustment away from something really nasty for northern areas. If not the wind then rain will be a problem anyway.

[Liam J]

Here we go again.... PV showing it's ugly face to us and banging out the low pressures 

Bring it on! 

[Skullzrulerz]

dont know if this is too late but this is GFS chart this the previous run (06Z)

 

 

Current run (12z)

 

Looks like it has gone a bit south which is bad news

[Liam J]

Yes, the trend is to take it further south on the latest guidance and it's deeper than on the previous run in the images you posted.

[Skullzrulerz]

Yes, the trend is to take it further south on the latest guidance and it's deeper than on the previous run in the images you posted.

Lets hope it doesn't happen or the north east will not be the only part of uk getting the brunt of the winds.Didn't notice the low had got deeper in the 2 runs.Then looks like the low just stands there and slowing dies quietly.

[Liam J]

ECM rolling out in half an hour, wonder if it'll back the GFS or UKMO..... Maybe the ECM will have it's own twist on the evolution! Not surprised by the Meto blanket warning, much to resolve over the next couple of days. 

Edited January 22, 2014 by Liam J

[Skullzrulerz]

Is there a link for ecm because i might have a look on them in 24 mins time.

[Bobby]

Still some major storms affecting us in the GFS ensembles

 

Yikes

 

 

       

 

A strong chance of a major wind event I think

Is there a link for ecm because i might have a look on them in 24 mins time.

 

Here: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php

[Liam J]

Agian most of them are further south with the centre and many closer to land.

 

Definitely a YIKES on P11!! Game of darts?!

 

 

ECM rolling out now http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php

Edited January 22, 2014 by Liam J

[Liam J]

Heavy rain and gales sweeping in from the west on this ECM chart, affecting a wide area north to south.

Central pressure in this depression falls from 1000mb to 955mb in 24 hours.

Edited January 22, 2014 by Liam J

[Skullzrulerz]

Looks like the GFS ensembles is this 

Please do not let this happen we do not need anymore rain or wind.Is this a repeat of the xmas day storm where it upgrades every time?

Haven't even seen the words 'upgrade' or 'downgrade' yet.

Slame its in the real timeframe.

[Zenarcher]

Slight differences between the models on the 12z runs with a push more South. The ECM and GFS have the low in the exact same location at 96 hours. The GFS has it deeper than the ECM and both show strong winds for the North West but the worse of the winds still look to miss land. The UKMO has made a big change and is backed up by some of the lesser models like JMA. They have it slightly more South with the worst of the winds hitting Ireland but again overall show the worst miss land. So still some disagreement on the track at the moment. That being said the rain still looks like it's going to cause trouble.

Edited January 22, 2014 by weathermaster

[Coast]

Slight differences between the models on the 12z runs with a push more South. 

 

Yes, affecting more of the UK on this run of GFS:

 

 

 

and for longer:

 

 

 

Ireland gets a bashing for quite a while: