South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 03/01/14

[Stuie]

https://twitter.com/TWOweather

 

Have a gander at Brian`s? post regarding next week. Glad I posted in model discussion before he tweeted.

[Jason T]

Storm surge French Atlantic Coast, Almost like something out of a film, Lovely scenery...Then Wipeout.

Edited January 6, 2014 by Jason T

[john pike]

It looks like there's an option, imho, with a likely scandi high and cold weather close to the UK.

 

Whether the high is very transitory (if it happens at all) or if the cold can get to us is another matter, but people who punt on these things early will get some kudos, if the event occurs, as people remember these successes more than the failed predictions.

 

Me, I'll wait until the weekend, before I think too much.

 

hi steve

 

i think next week is too soon

 

allow around 8-10 days and that may be closer ( edited)

 

also feel this may be a south east event only

 

that will cheer the mad thread up

Edited January 6, 2014 by john pike

[Bluebreezer54]

It's been a breezy old day even this far inland, gusts picking up yet again this evening. Hope everyone is as well as they can be

[Stuie]

Storm surge French Atlantic Coast, Almost like something out of a film, Lovely scenery...Then Wipeout.

MERDE!

[lottiekent]

Matt Hugo agrees next week is too soon:

"@MattHugo81: 12z ECM has some interesting possibilities http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif - A blocked pattern isn't preferred so soon yet. Interesting though..."

"@MattHugo81: I'd love to believe it but it's not likely to happen but this would bring quite a change...http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif"

[john pike]

hi lottie

 

i think ecm is about right as the atlantic as a norm would run out of steam mid jan

 

just feel the pattern is being shown too quick

 

lots of interest coming soon

 

and hopefully bye bye atlantic the sooner the better

[tinybill]

looks  like a  downpour heading my way later  on  if  the radar  right!!

[tinybill]

hi lottie

 

i think ecm is about right as the atlantic as a norm would run out of steam mid jan

 

just feel the pattern is being shown too quick

 

lots of interest coming soon

 

and hopefully bye bye atlantic the sooner the better

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

well looking  at that  the  Atlantic  fires  up after  a  short  rest!!  then its  back  to rain plenty  of  it!!

[john pike]

hi tiny

 

gfs is so unreliable at present i would ignore that

 

the ensembles are all over the shop

[fluid dynamic]

Typical

Just putting the finishing touches to my Ark

And they say it'll stop raining

[john pike]

hi fluid

 

fingers crossed

[Eskimo]

Matt Hugo agrees next week is too soon:"@MattHugo81: 12z ECM has some interesting possibilities http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif - A blocked pattern isn't preferred so soon yet. Interesting though...""@MattHugo81: I'd love to believe it but it's not likely to happen but this would bring quite a change...http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif"

I can't remember when Matt Hugo was correct to be fair. I know that sounds bad but I've been following him as well. 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

People letting a computer dictate the future of the weather to them... Lord help.. Please..

[john pike]

Hi JP, good old GFS ends with a low resolution 925 low and a polar vortex looking to take over the world, probably shouldn't mock it completely but looks extremely unlikely to me.

 

gfsnh-0-384mon.png

 

hi bjaykent

 

looks like a face in that

 

looks unlikely as well

 

but fi is what it is so in theory anythings possible

 

i reckon by saturday or sunday if my thoughts are right the fax charts should get more interesting

 

i think the first time i spot proper snow on a fax chart i will have to take a week off posting

 

due to shock

[Jason T]

Chicago  FFrrrreeeeeezing. 

[john pike]

 

fi around the 13th

 

ignore after

 

except my ramp chart

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=16&mode=1&carte=0

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=16&mode=0&carte=0

 

remember ramp charts are just for fun

[Jason T]

Well 2013/14, Has been extreme weather events possible. USA, Extreme cold and snow, UK,Extreme Atlantic onslaught "Fastest Jet stream Recorded". Then Australia warmest year on record.  http://t.co/iA8ewSswvx

 

Link may take a wee while to load.  HEAT EXHAUSTION 

Edited January 6, 2014 by Jason T

[shotski]

Chicago  FFrrrreeeeeezing. 

 

I'm Sure that picture is Lake Geneva 2010 ???  I was there    

[Jax]

I'm Sure that picture is Lake Geneva 2010 ???  I was there    

thougth I had seen it before (including the lighthouse in ice) I may be wrong though (memory is going these days)

Edited January 6, 2014 by Jax

[Nick.F]

I'm Sure that picture is Lake Geneva 2010 ???  I was there    

Indeed it is Lake Geneva, not sure of the year tho'.

[Reefseeker]

I seriously wish those strong gusts would drop, fearing the final fence panel will go with not much more of a push.

 

Oh dear, the MAD has started again tonight I see; can't wait to see what happens when actual cold and s**w start showing in proper time frames. What lucky chaps and chappesses we are to have all the nice people who know what they are talking about in our very own regional thread 

 

Edit: I should add that there are also some excellent posts in the MAD, our Steve amongst them tonight, go south east!

Edited January 6, 2014 by Reefseeker

[hernebaylooby]

I seriously wish those strong gusts would drop, fearing the final fence panel will go with not much more of a push.

 

Oh dear, the MAD has started again tonight I see; can't wait to see what happens when actual cold and s**w start showing in proper time frames. What lucky chaps and chappesses we are to have all the nice people who know what they are talking about in our very own regional thread 

Here here!

[fluid dynamic]

Meanwhile over in the intellectual thread (model discussion)

 

" what's cold rain ?"

 

"rain that's cold"

 

"isn't all rain cold?"

 

"so is sleet cold rain or warm snow? "

 

 

Brilliant !

Edited January 6, 2014 by fluid dynamic

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Well 2013/14, Has been extreme weather events possible. USA, Extreme cold and snow, UK,Extreme Atlantic onslaught "Fastest Jet stream Recorded". Then Australia warmest year on record.  http://t.co/iA8ewSswvx Link may take a wee while to load.  HEAT EXHAUSTION

Hopefully to top it off, we will be seeing a mesoscale convective complex the size of the UK this summer !