South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 03/01/14

[john pike]

 

still too much spread there to call after the 10th

 

still nice to see them rain spikes drop

 

lets see what ramp charts should i post

 

ok here we go

 

i like this one

 

 

how to upset the mad thread

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=336&code=14&mode=1&carte=0

 

p14 is impressive though

[SF-02]

Thames barrier pic is true but it is a designed run off space. No chance of getting close to breaching the second wall and threatening homes. Also further along it overtopped the wall and went to the car park below new build flats though its designed to do so when the barrier shut. 

[Bluebreezer54]

^^ SF-02. Can  you put your location in your profile please ? It's useful to other members when you are reporting conditions from your location

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Can't believe it... Checking the Environment Agency's website no warnings what so ever on the river near me..

 

Called them just now and they are sending someone out to have a look.. I know how this river acts when it is in floods and one more tiny bit of rain and it will really go for it! PLUS they have not updated the river levels on their website for 3 days!

[blackprince]

Coldest day of the year 2c driving to London this morning and first trip without rain lol

[Charltonkerry]

Morning all, this is Dartford reporting, can confirm sunny sky's and a frost, yes a frost on the car and road and pavement looks very icy, over and out from Dirty Dartford. Think I might have lost it.

[Summer of 76]

Morning all, this is Dartford reporting, can confirm sunny sky's and a frost, yes a frost on the car and road and pavement looks very icy, over and out from Dirty Dartford. Think I might have lost it.

My goodness that frost which is made of ice and relates to winter, your next report will say it's snowing

[Charltonkerry]

Don't be stupid Chris its me, the only person who report on everything that is non weather related, don't worry I am sure I will get back to normal tomorrow, oh blow gone and done it again, nothing about the weather in this!

Think I better edit this to make it a little bit weather related, think we might be planning a wedding my boy a spitting image of his dad, so ugly, fat, but unfortunately without my brains, got engaged about two years ago, to this lovely model like young lady 7 years younger to him, In fact the exact opposite to his mum whose nickname is tubs, don't know how he managed it, can only say that for the first time in my life I'm jealous of him :-) anyway the loving couple decided to visit yesterday and they mentioned a wedding. This is the first time the word wedding have broken the surface, so her indoors got excited, and the question of where, when etc was raised.

Unbeknown to me where we have decided to have Marion's (commonly referred to previously as her indoors, and boy she is common, originally comes from Mottingham and you can't get anymore common than that) where they are thinking of taking the plunge Eastwell manor down ashford way, absolutely beautiful setting for a wedding. Getting there weather will be mentioned in a few minutes promise. So we have been asked to go to there we them to a wedding fair, I glared at my son and suggested my presence wasn't required, and do you know what the cheeky so and so said, well if I got to go so have you, true love! Then a date was discussed look like could be June 2016, now both Dave and Hannah constantly take the mick out of my interest in the weather and you geeks (his words not mine) on here , he then states if your that good at weather forecasting can you please tell us what the weather going to be like on February 23rd this year and the best day in June 2016 for them to book the venue.

So that's todays challenge for you lot out there, any help would be appreciated, oh and while you got your crystal ball out can I ask about February 1st and 2nd for that common lady I got married too all those years ago as it her 60th party and Eastwell manor is a bit of a trek in bad weather.

I am sure you will disappoint my little boy, will you :-)

Edited January 5, 2014 by Charltonkerry

[Bluebreezer54]

Spectacular sunrise here in north west London this morning. Wish I could have gotten out to photograph it.

[Atlantis]

Morning everyone.

Can't believe I am looking out my window at frost on cars and roofs and it is actually not raining! Temp is - 1.2 here and it almost seems impossible that by later today we will be back to our default setting of wind and rain!

I would think the roads will be pretty slippery with the ice forming on them, so take care if you are out early.

I am going to enjoy a cup of tea, read the paper and look at this almost winter landscape whilst I can!

Have a good Sunday.

[chilly milly]

Morning all. Clear and bright here this morning.  Temps creeped up to 1.0c here, but was lower when I got up.

 

Happy Birthday today to Lookeast4winter.

 

Taking the decs down today I think.  Then cooking a roast dinner.  Not a lot planned for today really.

 

Have a good day, whatever you are doing.

[HammerJack]

Morning all. A crisp and frosty start to the day here. Just seen the news24 weather - doesn't look like it's going to stay dry for long.....

Have a good one all.

[tinybill]

morning  sun out even the radar not much rain heading this way to-day at the  moment just posted this in the mad  thread its  deep f1  wont happen  we can dream !! off to clean me  can soon after i read  the papers

[Snowangel-MK]

Morning all,

Jack Frost has been busy here too - seems like a good enough excuse to stay in bed for a while longer (especially as mr P just went down to put the kettle on)

It's really nice to wake up to a clear bright sky and no rain :-)

Have a good day y'all x

[Summer of 76]

I would lock the doors and stay in as the M family are soon to depart for MK and the snow zone for younger ones party. Promise not to measure the snow in there and pretend its here in three weeks time

[Jax]

Morning all

 

frosty here too, makes a change from the recent wet weather, must say did notice a short while ago the frost is already lifting when I glanced back out the kitchen window whilst waiting for the kettle to boil (cold morning = hot cup of tea).

[Callie]

Nice bright morning, looks like a frost earlier. Off out for lunch then maybe a drive past Birling Gap to see how it is after more cliff falls since the new year began!!

[Keraunic]

Mornin each. Im still in bed so I dunno how things are out there....:)but it was a very clear night so probably had some frost. But now its bright with some sun and cloud.

Have a good day peeps.

[Coast]

Nice bright morning, looks like a frost earlier. Off out for lunch then maybe a drive past Birling Gap to see how it is after more cliff falls since the new year began!!

 

Morning Callie, morning all!

 

A very welcome change to wake up to chilly and clear today. I only wish it was going to hang around for a while:

 

 

Edited January 5, 2014 by Coast

[Coast]

Even ESTOFEX are getting fed up with the Atlantic!

 

For Ireland, parts of the UK and Scotland yet another intense extratropical cyclone approaches from the west. Behind the eastward moving occlusion, a brisk westerly flow regime is forecast. 850 hPa winds increase to 20-30 m/s from W to E. No convection is forecast until noon (Ireland) and 18Z (UK).

 

This changes during the evening and overnight hours with the arrivial of a colder mid-layer air mass, enhanced BL moisture from a back-bent occlusion and numerous more or less pronounced mid-layer impulses. The strongest impulse likely crosses Ireland between 18-21Z and hits the North Sea between 00-06Z. Deeper updrafts with enhanced downward mixing are likely and as 850 hPa winds increase to aoa 30 m/s, severe to damaging wind gusts are once again forecast. This activity rapidly spreads east over the North Sea. There are some hints that once again convection could line up beneath those vorticity lobes (and attendant surface features), which could result in LEWP-ish structures. Concentrated swaths of severe wind gusts are possible with that kind of convection. Isolated tornadoes remain possible due to very strong BL shear and some LLCAPE (offshore and along westward facing coasts). 

 

Between 00-06Z, isolated thunderstorms are also forecast over the SE North Sea, W-Denmark, the Netherlands and NW Germany. We kept the level 1 area offshore for now due to weakening forcing and warm EL temperatures. Strong to severe wind gusts will be the main hazard.

 

 

http://www.estofex.org/

[Coast]

Here it is, more rain coming:

 

 

 

Then the gusty wind later tonight/early morning:

 

 

Never ending? Maybe getting slightly less windy through next week

[Captain Shortwave]

Morning, had a frost this morning and the sky is clear and sunny.... for now.

[Jax]

Been out in the garden and nice and sunny but rather cold out, but having checked the radar expect rain to arrive around midday.

[Kent Snow]

A frosty and sunny start earlier although cloud has now started to move in from the west.

[MAF]

Posted by a friend earlier on Facebook...

am about a mile away from the barrier. might take a wander down later and have a looksy

morning all; well only just.

dry chilly walk with fluffy this morning, ground really heavy and soaked though. current temp 9C