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Dorsetbred

2014 Chasing outlook

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I have limited access to data where I am today but a quick look at GFS indicates the risk this evening has shifted west to SW/CS OK with 3000+ cape and favourable hodos 18Z.Watch for supercells forming on the DL bulge and migrating into the warm sector.

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Plenty of reports in from yesterday with LOTS of damaging hail, with the one "T" reported east of Wichita (Neal).

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For the MOD risk tonight I would like to be on the I35 corridor between arkadelphia and Malvern for the discrete cells lower down the dl. Not too Far East though don't like the trees in these set-ups

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It's all getting going over there now. Lots of warnings, although the southern end of the dry line/cold front nr DFW seems to be a better chase option.

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And a count of 3"T's" from yesterday, looking like today is going to add to the annual total!

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So do you reckon it's worth watching chaser tv tonight then

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It's looking as if warm, moist air coming off the Gulf will interact with a cool northerly in eastern Texas, Alabama and Tennessee tonight and over the next couple of days.

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Posted · Hidden by Dorsetbred, April 11, 2014 - No reason given
Hidden by Dorsetbred, April 11, 2014 - No reason given

Tornado watch in place

 

WW 65 TORNADO AL FL LA MS CW 062355Z - 070800ZAXIS..85 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..25WNW BTR/BATON ROUGE LA/ - 30N CEW/CRESTVIEW FL/..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM N/S /17NW BTR - 24NNE CEW/HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 240

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Posted · Hidden by Dorsetbred, April 11, 2014 - No reason given
Hidden by Dorsetbred, April 11, 2014 - No reason given

Warning issued for Sunday:

VALID 131200Z - 181200Z...DISCUSSION...THE SWRN U.S. SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY MOVE EWDACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY ON D4/SUN...WITH NUMEROUSTHUNDERSTORMS EVOLVING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

 

THEN THE MAIN COLD FRONT LATER IN THEDAY. TORNADOES...HAIL AND WIND WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING EARLYAFTERNOON...WITH MORE OF A WIND AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT IFAN MCS FORMS.

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Is that a MDT I see posted for Sunday afternoon /evening?

Yes - second MDT of the season and it's only mid-April.

Lifting warm front with attendant upper 60s dp gulf air across E OK Sun afternoon. Substantial risk of tornadic supercells near the triple point I would think.

It is worth noting that some models push the CF through rather quickly which would imply the best conditions may be further south into N TX.

Edited by nsrobins

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Looking good for a virtual chase tomorrow then.

 

I will get some imaginary kip in Blackwell OK on the I35 and see what the morning brings. Good options in all directions from there and it is slap bang in the Moderate risk area and safely North of Tulsa and Oklahoma City so no snarl-ups, hopefully.

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The moderate risk is largely for hail. The more significant tornado risk lies further south down the I35 towards Gainesville TX IMO.A sounding here shows ample shear and the sort of looped hodograph that should generate helicity once the cap breaks.

I might locate myself a tad further towards DFW - say Denton, TX - and look to chase NW into the late afternoon towards the Sherman area. Roads here OK so long as you avoid the lakes. 

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MD issued for hail, oh well gotta start somewhere:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0333NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1110 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS AND ADJACENT AREAS OF WRN MO/NRN OKCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELYVALID 131610Z - 131845ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENTSUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDINGSUPERCELLS...APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE BY MID AFTERNOON...PROBABLYREQUIRING A WATCH BY AROUND 17-18Z.

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Not too great at the moment and there is a bit of a dichotomy as to where to chase so I am jumping in the car and heading to Paris, Texas. Always wanted to go there and will make a decision on which way to chase when I get there.....

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4 "T's" yesterday  and a MD issued recently for:

MD recently issued for:

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AR/NERN LA AND CENTRAL MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

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All quiet on the western front with the death ridge

Nothing doing until after Easter I would think.

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It is looking as if the jet will become active over the central plains beginning around next Wednesday. A nice 'u bend' seems probable. The CAPE values for next Thursday are looking very good :-) post-16872-0-17858300-1397749330_thumb.ppost-16872-0-17858300-1397749330_thumb.p

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Next 2 weeks shaping up to be very active by the looks of things, what a waste as nobody from the UK Over there to chase it - Lolz

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Sister in Plano Dallas has informed me that they are expecting a big outbreak this year. Will talk to her again soon to find out  where her info comes from.

When are you guy's off?

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I fly out on the 20th May for tour 2 but the team are going out in advance of tour 1 , so I guess Paul will be going out some time around 9th May. About 21 days of there abouts.

 

Tom

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