Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

2014 Chasing outlook


Dorsetbred

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

I have limited access to data where I am today but a quick look at GFS indicates the risk this evening has shifted west to SW/CS OK with 3000+ cape and favourable hodos 18Z.Watch for supercells forming on the DL bulge and migrating into the warm sector.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

For the MOD risk tonight I would like to be on the I35 corridor between arkadelphia and Malvern for the discrete cells lower down the dl. Not too Far East though don't like the trees in these set-ups

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Totterdown, Bristol, UK.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Hail, Torrential Rain
  • Location: Totterdown, Bristol, UK.

It's all getting going over there now. Lots of warnings, although the southern end of the dry line/cold front nr DFW seems to be a better chase option.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Storms, Snow Thunder, Supercells, all weather extremes
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level

So do you reckon it's worth watching chaser tv tonight then

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Totterdown, Bristol, UK.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Hail, Torrential Rain
  • Location: Totterdown, Bristol, UK.

It's looking as if warm, moist air coming off the Gulf will interact with a cool northerly in eastern Texas, Alabama and Tennessee tonight and over the next couple of days.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

It's looking as if warm, moist air coming off the Gulf will interact with a cool northerly in eastern Texas, Alabama and Tennessee tonight and over the next couple of days.

 

Yep, tornado watch just issued...

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0064.html

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
Posted · Hidden by Dorsetbred, April 11, 2014 - No reason given
Hidden by Dorsetbred, April 11, 2014 - No reason given

Tornado watch in place

 

WW 65 TORNADO AL FL LA MS CW 062355Z - 070800ZAXIS..85 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..25WNW BTR/BATON ROUGE LA/ - 30N CEW/CRESTVIEW FL/..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM N/S /17NW BTR - 24NNE CEW/HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 240

Link to comment
Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
Posted · Hidden by Dorsetbred, April 11, 2014 - No reason given
Hidden by Dorsetbred, April 11, 2014 - No reason given

Warning issued for Sunday:

VALID 131200Z - 181200Z...DISCUSSION...THE SWRN U.S. SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY MOVE EWDACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY ON D4/SUN...WITH NUMEROUSTHUNDERSTORMS EVOLVING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

 

THEN THE MAIN COLD FRONT LATER IN THEDAY. TORNADOES...HAIL AND WIND WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING EARLYAFTERNOON...WITH MORE OF A WIND AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT IFAN MCS FORMS.

Link to comment
Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

Is that a MDT I see posted for Sunday afternoon /evening?

Yes - second MDT of the season and it's only mid-April.

Lifting warm front with attendant upper 60s dp gulf air across E OK Sun afternoon. Substantial risk of tornadic supercells near the triple point I would think.

It is worth noting that some models push the CF through rather quickly which would imply the best conditions may be further south into N TX.

Edited by nsrobins
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.

This is my dream job!! Just makes me jealous that I stay over here!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beverley, E Yorks, 19m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder - not necessarily at the same time!
  • Location: Beverley, E Yorks, 19m ASL

Looking good for a virtual chase tomorrow then.

 

I will get some imaginary kip in Blackwell OK on the I35 and see what the morning brings. Good options in all directions from there and it is slap bang in the Moderate risk area and safely North of Tulsa and Oklahoma City so no snarl-ups, hopefully.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

The moderate risk is largely for hail. The more significant tornado risk lies further south down the I35 towards Gainesville TX IMO.A sounding here shows ample shear and the sort of looped hodograph that should generate helicity once the cap breaks.

I might locate myself a tad further towards DFW - say Denton, TX - and look to chase NW into the late afternoon towards the Sherman area. Roads here OK so long as you avoid the lakes. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL

MD issued for hail, oh well gotta start somewhere:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0333NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1110 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS AND ADJACENT AREAS OF WRN MO/NRN OKCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELYVALID 131610Z - 131845ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENTSUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDINGSUPERCELLS...APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE BY MID AFTERNOON...PROBABLYREQUIRING A WATCH BY AROUND 17-18Z.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beverley, E Yorks, 19m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder - not necessarily at the same time!
  • Location: Beverley, E Yorks, 19m ASL

Not too great at the moment and there is a bit of a dichotomy as to where to chase so I am jumping in the car and heading to Paris, Texas. Always wanted to go there and will make a decision on which way to chase when I get there.....

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL

4 "T's" yesterday  and a MD issued recently for:

MD recently issued for:

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AR/NERN LA AND CENTRAL MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

All quiet on the western front with the death ridge

Nothing doing until after Easter I would think.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Totterdown, Bristol, UK.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Hail, Torrential Rain
  • Location: Totterdown, Bristol, UK.

It is looking as if the jet will become active over the central plains beginning around next Wednesday. A nice 'u bend' seems probable. The CAPE values for next Thursday are looking very good :-) post-16872-0-17858300-1397749330_thumb.ppost-16872-0-17858300-1397749330_thumb.p

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Next 2 weeks shaping up to be very active by the looks of things, what a waste as nobody from the UK Over there to chase it - Lolz

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Greenhithe, N/W Kent (home) City Of London (work)
  • Location: Greenhithe, N/W Kent (home) City Of London (work)

Sister in Plano Dallas has informed me that they are expecting a big outbreak this year. Will talk to her again soon to find out  where her info comes from.

When are you guy's off?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cumbria UK
  • Weather Preferences: Cloud 9
  • Location: Cumbria UK

I fly out on the 20th May for tour 2 but the team are going out in advance of tour 1 , so I guess Paul will be going out some time around 9th May. About 21 days of there abouts.

 

Tom

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...