2014 Chasing outlook

[Dorsetbred]

With just a 128days before our intrepid chasers take up their challenge and as some of us 2014 chasers are not Facebook bound and within the Virtual Chase group, here's an opportunity to have an early discussion on the potential for this year. (Remember it's just for fun!)

As Punxsutawney Phil slumbers for one more month, the weather waits for no man (or groundhog come to that).

Winter is about to take hold in the central Northern plains driving some cold air way south, whilst Texas has a potential to go through an unusually wet winter. Dallas has an average of 2.59" for January as a starting point.

Good seasonal weather leading towards the chasing season, that's for your thoughts.......

Edited January 2, 2014 by Dorsetbred

[Tom Lynch]

Oh my oh my, today for the first time I said flights and insurance booked for THIS YEARS chase trip. I will have to start thinking about the potential for this year, oh my god I said it again.  THIS YEAR. 

 

Tom

[Cloud]

The Texas Panhandle is overdue to get active again and this could be the year.

[Dorsetbred]

Well it's in for record cold over the next 2 days, but it's a dry not wet cold. Still we shall see.

[icbinb]

As we seem to say every year, the Texas Panhandle could really do with some rain.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/19414-img-0870/

[Cookie]

what insurance did you go with tom and how much?

[Paul Sherman]

I always love a super cold Winter in the US, Seems to always be a great season afterwards.

 

Personally I think March will be the start of a more active season this year in the Texas Panhandle area (Music to Trevors ears no doubt) and also favouring an active April as well in both Dixie and South Plains.

 

Loads more to go around in May and June but it is going to be tough going virtual chasing the early spring set-ups for sure!

[Cookie]

yeah I won't forget u virtual chasing then actually chasing lol... you had us a good one

[bristolstormchaser]

As we seem to say every year, the Texas Panhandle could really do with some rain.

What do people feel the drought will mean regarding storm development? Is it likely to inhibit tornado development in the Panhandle area?

[DubWeatherAddict]

Hey Guys ! , just wanted to let ya all know that i've been thinking very hard about booking again this year !

 

Its the idea of learning to drive and getting a car to be able to go anywhere for photography in Ireland thats has me think otherwise. 

I will be giving it ALOT of talk over the next week or 2 though! 

 

 

#Stormstarved .

[Cloud]

What do people feel the drought will mean regarding storm development? Is it likely to inhibit tornado development in the Panhandle area?

 

Feb/Mar can produce good precip so lets hope that happens.

 

Dry conditions in the panhandle promotes high based storms and a lot of blowing dust. Not ideal for tornadoes.

[Dorsetbred]

From my local farmer source in the US, a seasonal outlook:

Temperature & Rainfall outlook for Texas 2013-2014.

 

[ItIsGee]

From my local farmer source in the US, a seasonal outlook:

Temperature & Rainfall outlook for Texas 2013-2014.

 

 

#

Lovely tool there but really can we predict that far ahead?

[Dorsetbred]

And we are OFF....

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/torgraph-big.png

[pat lightning timmer]

Hi mods

Not quite sure where to post this,but something is brewing here and east wards

Charging cameras just in case....

Warnings on TV to stay tunned...lol...awesome

First inituation in KS ..heading N/E

First cells going up in Arkansas

Edited February 19, 2014 by pat lightning timmer

[Paul Sherman]

Pat

 

The guy that posted that chart above is not a proper forecaster and scaremongers people on Facebook! I would not take any notice of any of his posts and certainly would not re-post them.

 

Today is just a classic QLCS With embedded spin ups no worse than we get in the Uk, if you like gust fronts, whales mouth and lightning with shelf clouds and displaced trampolines and bins this is your set-up other than that a pretty worthless risk today.

 

Just my two pence worth but would not even travel 5 miles for this.

[Dorsetbred]

BUT.....some opportunities do exist:

ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALLWOUS40 KWNS 201657ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-210200-PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1057 AM CST THU FEB 20 2014...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OFTHE LOWER OHIO VALLEY, TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPIVALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...The NWS Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK is forecasting thedevelopment of widespread damaging winds and a few tornadoes overparts of the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, into the lowerMississippi Valley and central Gulf States this afternoon andtonight.The areas most likely to experience this activity include:Northwest AlabamaWestern and central KentuckyNorthern MississippiWestern and middle TennesseeElsewhere, severe storms are also possible from the Ohio Valley tocentral Gulf Coast.A storm system near Kansas City as of late morning will strengthenrapidly while moving toward Wisconsin this evening, as a cold frontsweeps eastward across Missouri and Arkansas this afternoon. Alongand ahead of the cold front, or more bands of severe thunderstormsare expected to develop by mid afternoon, initially along a linefrom Saint Louis to Texarkana. Storms will then spread eastwardacross the Ohio, Tennessee, and Mississippi Valleys through tonight.Widespread damaging thunderstorm winds are expected as storms evolveinto a squall line by this evening and continue into the overnighthours. A few tornadoes will also be possible with storms embeddedin or ahead of the squall line, mainly this afternoon into earlytonight.

[pat lightning timmer]

PatThe guy that posted that chart above is not a proper forecaster and scaremongers people on Facebook! I would not take any notice of any of his posts and certainly would not re-post them.Today is just a classic QLCS With embedded spin ups no worse than we get in the Uk, if you like gust fronts, whales mouth and lightning with shelf clouds and displaced trampolines and bins this is your set-up other than that a pretty worthless risk today.Just my two pence worth but would not even travel 5 miles for this.

Yes I thought this after!I think he's hyping things up...On a good note we have just had our first tornado warning.Its extremely windy here and warm.I can see three cells linear in nature heading our way..Not to impressed to be honest but hey things might change.Thanks Dorset alsoEdit...13 tornado reports in illinoisHere in the news we have had several Mobile homes blown over fromDamaging winds.Ive seen two pictures that look like possible tornados in Missouri but have yet to be confirmed if they are or just large funnel clouds.Mainly here was loud thunder which was near constant but I personally didn't see a lot of lightning,the wind was impressive at times.No hail here just heavy pulses of rain. Edited February 21, 2014 by pat lightning timmer

[Dorsetbred]

As Pat said reportings from yesterday, can be found at:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/140220_rpts.html

[Paul Sherman]

Pretty much push that amount down to 4 and thats being generous though. And all Tornadoes in Illinois were on the Warm Front and nothing to do with the Moderate Risk Squall Line.

 

Still nice seeing pictures of Tornadoes with snow still on the ground I suppose.

 

Snownado!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Dorsetbred]

Snownado, if the cold keeps hanging around the first team out might get to chase one of these!

[Team Jo]

That would be epic.....

[Arron]

Snownado, if the cold keeps hanging around the first team out might get to chase one of these!

 And that's why I'm heading out so early

[Dorsetbred]

Looks as though the current models are still hanging in there with a "Neutral" ENSO forecast, with suggestions of it going Slightly positive towards an El Nino in the next few months, which could prove interesting for the "T" season, should it evolve that way. Thoughts?

Edited February 23, 2014 by Dorsetbred

[Paul Sherman]

I heard a few days ago that if it indeed does switch to El Nino it wont be until the back end of the summer, and as you say Neutral conditions will prevail in the A/M/J Period. If it is an El Nino Fall/Winter that will be very good news to the drought hit panhandles who have been crying out for this pattern change and could see an active NM/CO/TX/KS Western Season in 2015.