South West/Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 1/1/14 18z ------>

[MPG]

There must be a frost around the corner soon judging by the mood in the MOD thread!

ha. Frost and sunny days would be good for two weeks. No rain or wind please.

[SNOW CRYSTAL]

Ooppps spoke to soon!! Heavy rain here now, wind picking up :0(

[Andy Bown]

I quite often get deja vu and have again this lunchtime on viewing the above photos in exact order on the page and recognising them from previously as well as the comments made by the photographers! Quite scary but fascinating.

 

Anyway, after a lovely Springlike and hazily sunny morning it's now dull with spots of rain in the air. 9.6c after 10.7c max.

[Dorsetbred]

So 1st week of 2014 was far from boring, I have recorded 111.1mm of rain in a week, that it in itself would cause flooding, but on top of what we had 2nd half of December, it's hardly any wonder that it was so extreme and widespread.

 

Here's to hoping the trend of cold continues for next week and that we can get it prolonged and more extreme!!

Wow that rainfall figure seems high. Looking around, Corfe Mullen, Bournemouth and my site, we haven't gone over 100mm yet, in fact I'm down at 92.5mm. Any reason you are almost 20mm above the rest of us?

[Dorsetbred]

First surge of rain today is almost with us, doesn't look to contain that much rainfall. Waiting for tonight's sprinkles

[ARTDEMOLE]

My total reads 49.2mm.

Vortex fallout may bring more the weekend.....

[knocker]

The rains been and gone. Very little to speak of. Clearing now with Ac and about 6/8 Sc.

[MP-R]

Lets hope us in the SW dont just a get a snow to rain event at the end of this predicted cold spell. I know it hasent happend yet, but god i hate such events!

 

The snow of January last year was disappointing regarding uppers and 2m temps and soggy squelchy snow....

 

But...anything fromt he East tends to be crisp and crunchy (as per march), the way snow should be!

 

Jumping the gun here massively but there you!

 

That's why I loved the January 2010 snow. The first dump on the 6th was of the perfect crisp and cruncy variety that you mention. 12cm of that lasted the whole of the following week. However it is the soggier squelchier snow of battlegrounds that gives us the best totals here in the West Country I think. The 13th brought close to 20cm here (not so much in Bristol itself of course). It was also an all-snow event so the snow stuck until it finally rained on the 15th. January 18th last year also managed 17cm here.

[That ECM]

Had lunch at Iford golf club, my home course, and sky were down there doing a report on the flooding. Now on a loop on sky sports. Not going to play golf there for awhile. Let's hope the models keep firming up on a cold spell then I will be able to ice skate on it!!

[MPG]

That's why I loved the January 2010 snow. The first dump on the 6th was of the perfect crisp and cruncy variety that you mention. 12cm of that lasted the whole of the following week. However it is the soggier squelchier snow of battlegrounds that gives us the best totals here in the West Country I think. The 13th brought close to 20cm here (not so much in Bristol itself of course). It was also an all-snow event so the snow stuck until it finally rained on the 15th. January 18th last year also managed 17cm here.

Yes in Yatton it was great in 2010. Watch heavy showers from Gloucester direction on the radar give a inch or so covering (i was in nailsea where there was nothing) before the main event moved in later. Amazing crunchy snow! Brilliant.

 

The problem with Jan last year (IMBY Yatton) was that the 850's were not cold enough. I was watching my weather station for ages, the temp just wouldnt drop fast enough as the front moved in. It started off with drizzle and sleet, so the ground was wet when the snow started to fall. This ment that lots of snow depth was lost due to the initial wet ground conditions. Then as mid morning approched, temps were above freezing, the snow was falling, but the total did not increase. There was a gentle thaw. If the 850's and 2m temps were colder the snow totals would of been exceptional.

 

Also what didnt help, was that there was no cold in place prior to the event, so everything was 'warm' when then event occured.

 

This is why i hate anything frontal from the west, the cold air tends to get mixed out etc. If you like wet soggy sledging, Jan last year was for you. If you like PROPER snow then Jan 2010 was brilliant.

Edited January 8, 2014 by MPG

[Nights King]

Indeed, AWD, looks like it's all coming together nicely. 48-72 hrs of sub -8 uppers tail end of next week for our region projected by ECM.

 

And did I just spot that Mullie is going skiing

 

   

 

You just couldn't make it up...

[MP-R]

Yes in Yatton it was great in 2010. Watch heavy showers from Gloucester direction on the radar give a inch or so covering (i was in nailsea where there was nothing) before the main event moved in later. Amazing crunchy snow! Brilliant.

 

The problem with Jan last year (IMBY Yatton) was that the 850's were not cold enough. I was watching my weather station for ages, the temp just wouldnt drop fast enough as the front moved in. It started off with drizzle and sleet, so the ground was wet when the snow started to fall. This ment that lots of snow depth was lost due to the initial wet ground conditions. Then as mid morning approched, temps were above freezing, the snow was falling, but the total did not increase. There was a gentle thaw. If the 850's and 2m temps were colder the snow totals would of been exceptional.

 

Also what didnt help, was that there was no cold in place prior to the event, so everything was 'warm' when then event occured.

 

This is why i hate anything frontal from the west, the cold air tends to get mixed out etc. If you like wet soggy sledging, Jan last year was for you. If you like PROPER snow then Jan 2010 was brilliant.

 

Yeah I get your point. I suppose I'm more bothered about the totals and what happens after the fall. Had milder air pushed north behind the snow on 13th Jan 2010 all that would have gone to waste but fortunately not. I was living in Madrid last year so wasn't here for last winter but I gather it stayed cold for another week after Jan 18th.

[Andy Bown]

Wow that rainfall figure seems high. Looking around, Corfe Mullen, Bournemouth and my site, we haven't gone over 100mm yet, in fact I'm down at 92.5mm. Any reason you are almost 20mm above the rest of us?

My total is at 116mm and currently rising with further heavy rain this afternoon.

 

If you live near high ground, or get the heaviest portions of the fronts or get frequent downpours which avoid other areas it is easily possible to have much higher figures than others. Also, and this is quite important in recent events, a lot of the heaviest downpours have begun to develop on the Dorset coast before intensifying quickly as they move inland, as such there will obviously be less rain at the coast than even 10 miles inland.

 

On BBC Points West at the start of each month Ian Fergusson shows a rainfall table from across the area and it is amazing how much the totals vary.

[Lyn-M]

I'm on 138mm so far this year, proof of the showers intensifying as they came inland over Dorset in the last few days.

[karlos1983]

Wow that rainfall figure seems high. Looking around, Corfe Mullen, Bournemouth and my site, we haven't gone over 100mm yet, in fact I'm down at 92.5mm. Any reason you are almost 20mm above the rest of us?

 

Because it rained a lot? Honest answer is I don't know, I actually though it was under estimating the amount that had fallen. But We have had some incredible rain rates per hour in my location. I'm, only stating what my Station is showing/collected. It's new, only had it since October. Been pretty accurate so far.

[DanDorsetUK]

What do you all make of our snow chances for next week then after then recent model drama? Been reading online about all the crazy weather going on around the world at the moment, pretty crazy stuff!

Cant believe how quick our weather is going to change if this comes off! Complete turnaround!

Edited January 8, 2014 by Rapodo

[Rammie]

Re the rain that has fallen this afternoon in Somerset. Is that the stuff that was forecast for this evening? Or is that still to come?

[AWD]

What do you all make of our snow chances for next week then after then recent model drama?

Far far too early to even speculate on any potential snowfall for our region yet.Being in the South & West, we are on the very edge of the current modelled cold airmass from the E/NE. Still all very borderline and volatile for us yet.Don't rush for the snowfall. IMO, even if things do go well and we become as cold as some of the operational output so far suggests, it's going to be a slow process to get any snowfall down to us.This time next week we should have a much better idea of where we sit.

[Dorsetbred]

Because it rained a lot? Honest answer is I don't know, I actually though it was under estimating the amount that had fallen. But We have had some incredible rain rates per hour in my location. I'm, only stating what my Station is showing/collected. It's new, only had it since October. Been pretty accurate so far.

Yeah, I just wanted to point out it seemed high compared to mine, when I live less than 3miles from you and when compared to the following site, you are showing a figure that compares to almost the whole last 30days in Bournemouth.

I was trying to suggest it might be worth a check.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/precipitation/sn03862_30.gif

I understand about heavy here and not there events,

 

Far far too early to even speculate on any potential snowfall for our region yet.This time next week we should have a much better idea of where we sit.

I know where we sit, a long way from the cold air!

Edited January 8, 2014 by Dorsetbred

[Mapantz]

With today's deluge of 1.8mm, I've hit 100.2mm for the month!

[Nights King]

Far far too early to even speculate on any potential snowfall for our region yet.

Being in the South & West, we are on the very edge of the current modelled cold airmass from the E/NE. Still all very borderline and volatile for us yet.

Don't rush for the snowfall. IMO, even if things do go well and we become as cold as some of the operational output so far suggests, it's going to be a slow process to get any snowfall down to us.

This time next week we should have a much better idea of where we sit.

 

Yes lets not get hasty now about the snow lets get the cold and bring the snow in from the 19th of January..  

 

which coincidently is the day I come back and my birthday

Edited January 8, 2014 by mullender83

[katemart]

Wow that rainfall figure seems high. Looking around, Corfe Mullen, Bournemouth and my site, we haven't gone over 100mm yet, in fact I'm down at 92.5mm. Any reason you are almost 20mm above the rest of us?

 

120mm so far this year in Soton: http://southamptonweather.co.uk/

[karlos1983]

Well that's done it, get the BBQ out and sun loungers

[dec10snow]

Well that's done it, get the BBQ out and sun loungers

Has mulls cancelled his holiday?! :lol:

[dancing daisy]

Had a job down at Fairwater, Taunton this morning, first time since before Christmas.

As soon as we went south of Bridgwater, the flooding was startling to say the least. Got some photos as I passed but bear in mind I was doing 75mph at the time so they aren't the best;

image.jpgimage.jpgimage.jpgimage.jpgimage.jpgimage.jpgimage.jpgimage.jpgimage.jpg

Had a job down at Fairwater, Taunton this morning, first time since before Christmas.

As soon as we went south of Bridgwater, the flooding was startling to say the least. Got some photos as I passed but bear in mind I was doing 75mph at the time so they aren't the best;

image.jpgimage.jpgimage.jpgimage.jpgimage.jpgimage.jpgimage.jpgimage.jpgimage.jpg

Firstly; go careful around those lanes! I drive that way to work every morning and lost my car at one bend due to all the mud on the road, it's treacherous!

Secondly; please god, no snow! Things are dreadful around here, it's beyond a joke now. Kids can't get to school, a lot of roads are impassable, people are unable to leave their villages and we even have the bloody sun newspaper sending big breasted women holding cans of beer down on boats to try and get their way in to villages to try and get interviews, this didn't go down well with the villagers! Even the male ones

Snow means more floods, we just need some peace and quiet now.