South West/Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 1/1/14 18z ------>

[gottolovethisweather]

FYI.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79144-model-output-discussion-19th-january-2014-18z-onwards/?p=2907543

 

Careful not to go overboard with snow lying potential however. We might all hate the word but is still simply POTENTIAL given the intrinsic difficulty of predicting snow, yet alone lying snow.

 

My thoughts haven't changed much recently even if every other NWP run seems to lose the plot occasionally, I'm still on snow-watch.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79144-model-output-discussion-19th-january-2014-18z-onwards/?p=2903476

 

Keep a close eye on the radars after sunset tomorrow, should get interesting for a few.

Edited January 25, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[Panayiotis]

Looking good for you guys tomorrow night, I would say any place in the triangle between Oxford-Bath-Swindon has the best chance for lying snow and also any place between Exeter and Southampton. Good luck to all, definitely the best chance of the winter to see the white stuff!

[gottolovethisweather]

Looking good for you guys tomorrow night, I would say any place in the triangle between Oxford-Bath-Swindon has the best chance for lying snow and also any place between Exeter and Southampton. Good luck to all, definitely the best chance of the winter to see the white stuff!

 

And for Wales too, but maybe not Cardiff. More especially the high ground is best bet at this stage.

[AWD]

Looking good for you guys tomorrow night, I would say any place in the triangle between Oxford-Bath-Swindon has the best chance for lying snow and also any place between Exeter and Southampton. Good luck to all, definitely the best chance of the winter to see the white stuff!

EURO4 model highlights the chance of a flow of wintry showers well tomorrow night in the areas you mentioned;However, I would be extremely dubious about any lying snow, certainly away from the highest hills and probably there too really.Ground temps are currently above average courtesy of the lack of frost in recent weeks along with the fact most fields are like lakes rather than fields around here. With such a short "window" of opportunity and any wintriness likely to be wet and temporary, the chances of lying snowfall are minimal as things stand.Still, myself included, many of us would enjoy just the sight of something wintry falling from the sky with the way this winter is conducting itself, I'm sure.

[Frosty_wsm]

^^ looks like a Bristol channel streamer there AWD?

Bit gutted we're out of the picture for the battleground event this coming week though, models are looking good for the majority of the country, just not for our little corner!

Edited January 25, 2014 by Smartie

[AWD]

^^ looks like a Bristol channel streamer there AWD?

Yup, could be. Although with the lack of nocturnal aiding and an increase in WBFL values, I would expect the wintriness in the showers to fade away after dawn Monday morning;Oh, and as for next week. Wouldn't get overly concerned of any particular outcome YET. Too much model volatility to have any confidence in next weeks shinnanigands. EC and to a lesser degree the GFS are within 500miles of producing a snowfest for the W/Country for example. 500 miles on NWP output 4/5/6/7 days away is nothing.Not saying we will become a whiteout, FWIW there is a strong worry of further flooding issues in the medium range equally, just saying that further model concensus is required before settling on any particular outcome. Edited January 25, 2014 by AWD

[Dean E]

In all my years of model watching (there's quite a few) I have never seen such disagreement in the models within 72hrs! 

 

I remember last winter had disagreements, but nothing like this!

 

Sit back fellow Southerners, we will get our cold and snow. The NH is about to under go a major pattern change, with N America and Canada FINALLY shifting the steep temperature gradient which should ease the strength of the Lows and ease the rainfall amounts if the Atlantic were to fire up again.

 

I know cold isn't everyone's cup of tea, but for our region, Cold is our best bet for now, just to dry out!

 

SM

[Nights King]

Hmm be interesting to see if these snow showers manage to pack a punch sunday night into Monday.

 

I have been without power for half the afternoon after a very stormy spell took down power lines earlier today.

[Frosty_wsm]

Hmm be interesting to see if these snow showers manage to pack a punch sunday night into Monday. I have been without power for half the afternoon after a very stormy spell took down power lines earlier today.

Not surprised that happened, was windy enough down here for a time this afternoon, up there would have been even worse.

[wimblettben]

Not surprised that happened, was windy enough down here for a time this afternoon, up there would have been even worse.

Yeah, I was up Castle Hill today which is shaped in a way which increases the wind dramatically compared to surrounding areas.

 

I recorded a period of 50-60mph gusts and then a squall came through with a period of 70mph gusts and one to 80mph. I have never been in a wind like this before.

 

The highest I have ever recorded on a handheld anemometer before this was 61mph which was back in 2012. Its odd though because back at home the house anemometer only got 43mph.

[karlos1983]

my god did it get windy earlier, was not expecting that. walking with the wife and kids, the youngest could barely walk against the wind.

 

Fantastic, with no rain either, weird 

[gottolovethisweather]

Quite a contrast coming our way today, plenty of heavy flooding rain initially which should scoot through fairly quickly. Temperatures in the rain reaching double-digits Fahrenheit in places within the warm sector. However, judging by current radar imagery the Temperature difference behind the Front is already apparent as it is only 3c in parts of Western Ireland whereas its 11c just a few miles further Southeast. A real day of contrasts upcoming and hopefully some wet snow tonight before the proper fun and games begin next week with something to keep us entertained every day.

Edited January 26, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[Aceman]

Metoffice app now dropped my lil sleet icon for tonight, bugger

[Rammie]

What is the rain like down there this morning? Heavy, moderate, or just drizzle?

Metoffice app now dropped my lil sleet icon for tonight, bugger

[SNOW CRYSTAL]

And so it begins again, more heavy rain with gusts of wind increasing. I'd love 6" of snow but would settle for a long dry crisp period, and a chance to dry off!!

[Aceman]

What is the rain like down there this morning? Heavy, moderate, or just drizzle?

Moderate, steady oh and wet, worse type lol

[Rammie]

Thanks. Hopefully will get through quickly!

Moderate, steady oh and wet, worse type lol

[somersetsnow]

5.7 and Raining. Grey and Gloomy 

[gaztig]

Steady rain here in Devon , no wind yet just the odd light gust

[AWD]

Latest EURO4 output continues highlight a cold westerly flow digging in behind the current rainband later today. Showers turning wintry across Exmoor, Dartmoor and across into the Dorset hills and Salisbury plain;

As for next week, we seem to be struggling still for any kind of model consensus. Having said that, we do seem to be slipping the wrong side of marginal in our region, so as things stand I would currently lean towards further outbreaks of rainfall rather than snowfall for most of us, however, the GEFS below highlight how close it is;

It certainly isn't outside the realms of possibility to see something more wintry.

Edited January 26, 2014 by AWD

[knocker]

Quite dire here at the moment. Moderate rain, St at a couple of hundred feet, temp 9C with wind SW 26mph gusting 40.

[Cakie]

Heavy, persistent rain and wind here. BBC News forecast just showed snow in my area for early tomorrow morning. Fingers crossed

[dec10snow]

Can't see myself getting any snow here tonight tbh, think people may be getting their hopes up too much! I know some models have highlighted it, but the met office predict a low of 3C here, which is marginal for snow in itself... And that's the lowest tonight!

[Evie]

Consistent rain here in Exeter all morning that has just become lighter, not a lot of wind at the moment. MET office has me down for sleet tonight around 9pm and Snow for midday tomorrow - will it come though that is the question

[davecornwall]

Rain, rain, rain.....grim here