Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[Zerouali lives]

Am I right in assuming we have prime conditions for heavy snowfalls?

 

Mild winter so far -> relatively warm North Sea SST's -> bitter cold over the Northern continent and therefore a large temperature contrast as the east winds blows over the Sea giving heavy snowfall - like the lake effect snow circumstances?

 

Cheers

[ZONE 51]

ECM v GFS

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I think I am more excited by this run than the 'That ECM' from last winter!!!

 

Yeah so am I, I didnt believe that as easterlies exceptionally rare mid Dec, mid Jan easterlies more likely

[MR EXTREMES]

that's a sausage lol

but what about the vortex heading back to Greenland and the azores im confused by this chart although I no -8 upper air over most of the uk.

[bluearmy]

remembering that the longevity of this will depend upon upstream, the ecm op develops a much more mature inland depression at day 7 which runs into eastern canada by day 8 rather than into the atlantic. i mentioned this trough yesterday and the effect it could have on the return of the stron atlantic jet

[snowmadchrisuk]

Am I right in assuming we have prime conditions for heavy snowfalls?

 

Mild winter so far -> relatively warm North Sea SST's -> bitter cold over the Northern continent and therefore a large temperature contrast as the east winds blows over the Sea giving heavy snowfall - like the lake effect snow circumstances?

 

Cheers

 

heavy Frontal Snow from the SW if ECM is correct at +192

 

[Tony Beets]

S##t the bed, are we heading for a Greenland high??

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

OMG ECM is a thing of beauty i really hope we are not being led up the garden path here guys!

METO surely have to upgrade tomorrow!!

[Duane S.]

 

Words not required

[tight isobar]

192 and convective possibilities are forefront.,,,

[lorenzo]

Stunning output from the ECM tonight, filthy looking Beasterly charts.

 

Amazing change to the depth of cold from 00z to 192z on this run.

 

Beautiful.

[Purga]

Look at these thicknesses

 

 

 

Direction of wind flow due east

[SMU]

ECM 168

 

 

ECM 192

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010812/ECH1-192.GIF?08-0

 

S

 

 

[Lincs Observation]

For all those punting for winter to arrive next week here is a link to the thoughts of Paul Hudson on what the models are set to bring.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/posts/All-change-with-first-taste-of-winter-possible-next-week

 

LO

 

 

[bluearmy]

tbh, thicknesses not particularly low on this run compared to the uppers but with a continental flow, we dont need low thicknesses. infact, i assume the higher the thickness, the more moisture it can hold ?

[Stuie]

Erm, OH WOW!

[tight isobar]

Eyes turn sharp to Greenland. ?.

[Summer Sun]

High pressure edging down from the north

 

 

Coldest air slowly easing in the south

 

 

Closer look (t192 on the right to show the difference)

 

[Purga]

Some pressure on the block from the jet riding to the north

[ZONE 51]

Look at these thicknesses

 

 

 

Direction of wind flow due east

 

Those blues are so stunning starting to feel like a moth in a chefs kitchen whizzing round the blue bars.. be just as much a shock if this turns up! 

[bluearmy]

as ever, days 7 to 10 to be treated with caution although the anomoly at day 9 looks fairly inline with the mean from the 00z run (just stronger which it should do being an op against 50 ens)

[MR EXTREMES]

milder ait to the south and south west

and our sausage is coming south but that would hold surface cold and very frosty fresh weather.

or should I say battle ground.

Edited January 8, 2014 by emotional rollercoaster

[nick sussex]

So this is where I start getting picky with the ECM, great till 192hrs then the low pressure is too far to the west, you want more energy heading into the Med and eastwards to support the high and stop the axis changing.

 

Now folks this is where it gets a bit dicy, you all want snow but the trough disruption isn't going to favour everyone, the best thing all round to give as many people a chance of snow is you get the disruption and this then slides under the high to get the winds round to a more ene flow and very strong this will drive snow showers inland.

 

Overall the ECM is very good but doesn't hit my 10 rating, its about 8.5.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Starts to go a little wrong at +240 but them charts are never right lol 

 

[nodrog]

Move to correct place mods if you want but just wanted to tell you all:

Friday at 7:30 bbc1 - Battered Britan Storms, tides and floods.

Monday 7pm ch5 - Worlds wildest weather.