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Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

Delay of about a day in propagating cold air west on the ECM. Build up is still fragile across the models. Certainly wouldn't be taking anything for granted at this point.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

ECM remains the coldest of the main 3 at t144

 

Posted Image

 

This mornings ECM at t144

 

Posted Image

 

UKMO

 

Posted Image

 

GFS

 

Posted Image

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

if that ridge keeps on going west, we will end up with a west based -NAO !! (just kidding). it is quite amazing how far west the blocking has gone on the ops over the past 24 hours.

 

Yeah,looks like destination Iceland which makes for good viewing!

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Posted
  • Location: Huddersfield, West Yorkshire (170m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Huddersfield, West Yorkshire (170m ASL)

Chart of the winter!! At 144hrs, we are getting there! Block up north, low to the SW, bringing in moisture and easterly winds= snow

Next possible snow event to the SE of Greenland, waiting for the undercut.....

Posted Image

The shape of that low in the Atlantic looks much better than yesterday opposed to the round ball shape that Steve m and nick s pointed out.. Excitement growing now!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

The ECM is a little bit different to the UKMO but has our margin for error insurance upstream, its more amplified and overall I'm about to faint ! The ECM is wow!

Yes Nick and I may have to review my thoughts on Easterlies delivering the square root of Jack to these parts, awesome chart!

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

We may have another 'That ECM' tonight (well three if you include the forum member) - ran through the house screaming like a daftie after I saw this:

Posted Image

Of course it's unlikely to be quite this clear cut but what a fantastic chart to see at D6.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Someone somewhere could be in for a dumping of snow if this comes off

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

Not as cold as the 00z still

 

Posted Image

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Posted Image

Holy cow!!!

Given the 850s it looks like there is a front straddling the country.... who would want to be a fly on the wall there!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

GFS 12z+144 Jet heads south:

Posted Image

Thickness 500/1000hpa same time:

Posted Image

Time to get that warmer coat I think..

So this is a pattern change, that will happen but it's how cold ( and snowy ) is the question..

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Lets see where the -12 850 s are 192 ecm

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Posted
  • Location: North East Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, heatwaves & thunderstorms
  • Location: North East Essex

Another good thing about the ECM is the cold pool developing in Europe. Hopefully the UK can tap into that!

post-18804-0-73236400-1389206303_thumb.j

Edited by pandit-scholar
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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

Another good thing about the ECM is cold pool developing in Europe. Hopefully the UK can tap into that!

absolutely the more frigid cold air into Europe is what will make it even more exciting and the ecm has lots there.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Getting colder

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

Posted Image

 

Can't rule out some hefty snowfalls of a relatively warm north sea, remember November & December 2010? that came off a warm north sea

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Saltash, South East Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers, Cold Winters.
  • Location: Saltash, South East Cornwall

I think I am more excited by this run than the 'That ECM' from last winter!!!

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

This mornings ECM 0z at t168

Posted Imageecm 168 08.01.14.png

This afternoons ECM 12z at t168

Posted Imageecm 168 12z 08.01.14.png

The further towards Iceland / Greenland the HP belt can be stretched the better for longevity of the cold spell.

 

192hrs

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Surely there would be some big big showers coming off a pretty warm N Sea there at 192

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