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phil nw.

Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

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Ensembles are Cold and 95% Easterly at +180 .... Most of them better or as good as the Op, confidence is increasing of a very Cold outbreak now IMO . 

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Yup that's the theory Nick let's just hope the practice takes note! Posted ImagePosted Image

I will guarantee you that if tonights UKMO had a 168hrs chart that it will show what I put up, the low is facing se, low heights are already shown between it and the Med, the upstream pattern in tandem with the high to the ne will force the low to send energy se'wards.there is simply nowhere else for the energy to go from that low.

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I'm seeing this a colder poss snowy events for prone areas especially Scottish Highlands, Pennines, Lakes, Peak and Hills of Wales between 12th and 17th Jan with low level for NE England, East Scotland, Midlands, East, Norfolk and again usual areas about 18th and 19th Jan...

Posted Image

then back to unsettled weather poss gales which I prefer... Posted Image

Edited by Tangerine Lion

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We've gone yellow east of Greenland, I repeat we've gone yellow east of Greenland......

 

Posted Image

Can anyone help me, What is the thick black line between yellow and green called? And why is it relevant (i.e. bolded in this way)

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So this easterly is around the t192 mark at the moment. Now don't wanna be a kill joy. But haven't we seen these implode around t24 so plenty caution required yet.

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Can anyone help me, What is the thick black line between yellow and green called? And why is it relevant (i.e. bolded in this way)

Yes course . It's the jet stream

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I should warn posters against picking up minor precipitation details for any part of the possible cold spell yet. It will only lead to disappointment

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I will guarantee you that if tonights UKMO had a 168hrs chart that it will show what I put up, the low is facing se, low heights are already shown between it and the Med, the upstream pattern in tandem with the high to the ne will force the low to send energy se'wards.there is simply nowhere else for the energy to go from that low.

 

Absolutely but I think we will see it disrupt a bit earlier in tomorrows output. 

I think it has been playing catch up rather than leading so personally I'm not putting too much weight on what it shows at the moment anyway.

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We shouldn't get carried away people, many an easterly has show up on models only to vanish, leaving forecasters red faced. I am no weather model reading experts but do we have cross model agreement of winter's arrival. If so, then woohoo!Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

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Yes course . It's the jet stream

 

Not correct. It's just a line showing the 552 thickness line, not sure why this is significant to warrant a thick black line though.

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So this easterly is around the t192 mark at the moment. Now don't wanna be a kill joy. But haven't we seen these implode around t24 so plenty caution required yet.

Much closer, we get colder air from the east by day 6..

Edited by Panayiotis

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So this easterly is around the t192 mark at the moment. Now don't wanna be a kill joy. But haven't we seen these implode around t24 so plenty caution required yet.

The formation of the high is at day 4/5, the cold uppers vary depending on the drive of the cold air westwards which depends of the exact positioning of the high.

Another good output this afternoon, such difficulty in choosing a chart to bank. But I think I have a winner.

Posted Image

Posted Image

surely a big snow making disturbance there in -10C 850's Posted Image

Edited by Captain shortwave

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Cold snap or cold spell? Please not a snap, that would be too much a disappointment weather Gods.  Surely we are due a reasonable hit of cold 5 days +

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I prefer the atlantic solution sliding Across the UK - the UKMO is fine - just in the Lull - a bit like the GFS- but overall I prefer the GFS solution if offered...

 

S

 

P-M yes the atlantic sliding over the cold air is a snow factory.

Thanks Steve I had a feeling you might go for that option.  I have been looking through  the GEFS and theres no support for the similar amplified wave working through the USA shown by the UKMO..

 

It will be interesting to see whether the ECM goes that route or the GFS one, in the last week we've seen the opposite of the winter so far, the models have been too flat later on so perhaps this might be a GEFS bias.

Edited by nick sussex

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will the ECM be joining the party, not long to find out now !

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I prefer the atlantic solution sliding Across the UK - the UKMO is fine - just in the Lull - a bit like the GFS- but overall I prefer the GFS solution if offered...

 

S

 

P-M yes the atlantic sliding over the cold air is a snow factory.

'47 was very marginal and had many freeze / thaw & snow / rain / snow events especially in the south. I wasn't quite around then but my mother told me how it was.

The fact that we were just on the right side for mostly snow is what made it so exceptional - the bigger the risk the greater the payout - or NOT!

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Well my fears were unfounded the 12z's are fantastic so far-UKMO worries me alittle at 144h we need that Azores high to keep its nose out of the situation!

Fingers crossed for a decent ECM..:)

Could we be looking at our first snowfall of the season? I bloody well hope so :D

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Mr Murr

What's your thoughts on the models downgrading the cold over the next few days or indeed upgrading !

Thanks

TF

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Good of you to urge caution. Many members, including myself, were heading down Tesco's to commence extreme panic buying of baked beans.

Clothes pegs for the neighbours noses then.

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'47 was very marginal and had many freeze / thaw & snow / rain / snow events especially in the south. I wasn't quite around then but my mother told me how it was.

The fact that we were just on the right side for mostly snow is what made it so exceptional - the bigger the risk the greater the payout - or NOT!

That's a good point, yes you're right the GFS is a bit riskier but somewhere will get plastered with snow. Just don't ask me where! that depends on the track of low pressure.

 

It's nice to be discussing this rather than the next monsoon.

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Ecm about to come out!!hold on to your hats folks!!

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