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phil nw.

Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

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Looks like if the cold snap/spell transpires next week, it could be one bite at the cherry before the Atlantic tries to move in again after, only to replaced by longer-lasting cold further down the line. There's no science in my opinion other than the fact that heights are more present to the NE and the ECM in particular doesn't fire up the polar vortex to anything like what we've seen before.

 

Before the weekend, however, the headline is still very much rain in places that really don't need it with the risk of snow above 300m in the far north of England into Scotland.

 

Keep the great discussion going guys! It's a pleasure to read when trolls and imbyism don't take over. Posted Image

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I see many think any cold will be just a 2/3 day affair. Over the last tweleve monthes or more what we have seen is that once a pattern change occurs it generally lasts for 6/8 weeks I see no reason why this won't be the case again. The question is how deep will the cold get and will it contain snow

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Nearly every post on this page already talking about the end of a cold spell/snap that only reared it's head today! You have to laugh.

Indeed, and if one looks at the output this time last week a cold snap/spell next week wasn't even on the cards. Just shows how the weather can make fools out of most of us.

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Mixed ENS in the mid range, with 8 members (notably including the op and the control) below -5C uppers at T+180 for central/eastern England. 12 above that figure, with 4 members going above freezing. In other words, this cold spell is not nailed just yet - plenty of time for either improvements or backtracks. Lets see where the longer range ENS take us.

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Fergie has tweeted Posted Image

 

"With ca. 60% of EC & 50% MOGREPS members offering colder E'rly into next 6-10d, UKMO lean towards this but with caution: may flip other way"

Flip to a northerly?Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

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Fergie has tweeted :) "With ca. 60% of EC & 50% MOGREPS members offering colder E'rly into next 6-10d, UKMO lean towards this but with caution: may flip other way"

Yep not buying the lambo sledge with go faster stripes yet, ensembles trending for cold but not exclusively so...Yet, know its been said before many times but models do struggle trying to work out how mother nature works when in an unusual situatio n

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Flip to a northerly?Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

Actually he did mention that a Northerly was one of the options yesterday.

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12z can't come round quick enough Posted Image . I'm expecting (guessing) for it to be a medium ground between the 00z and the 06z. Slightly higher pressures both to the north and the south than the 06z. Who knows though. One things for sure. We are in "that model watching" zone again hold onto your hats. Posted Image

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Fergie has tweeted Posted Image

 

"With ca. 60% of EC & 50% MOGREPS members offering colder E'rly into next 6-10d, UKMO lean towards this but with caution: may flip other way"

possibly because the Azores high cuts off the cold feed before it becomes truly established......

 

I do think that this would be the outsider in the short term though.

Edited by chionomaniac
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And finally we have the London ensembles:

 

 

 

Sub 5c Mean all the way from next week onwards and with the strongest clustering below the mean. We can also see that the end of the 0z GFS was an outlier compared to the ECMWF ensembles, most notably from the wind:

 

 

 

Reading through the running commentary of the 6z was actually quite entertaining. One might hope that the events of the past 48-72 hours would show once and for all not to draw meaningful conclusions from a single deterministic run for 5+ days in to the future, especially before the run has even completed. But there we go, you live and learn...hopefully the latter part of that more especially!

 

SK

You would think so SK, but No...expect plenty more '-5c 850hpa line 11 miles farther south across Surrey at 180hrs on this run' type comments over the coming days...Posted Image

 

Waiting on the 06 GFS ensemble suite now, will be intertesting to see where this Op fits as the 00 run was reasonable close to the mean.

 

Edit - 06 Op one of the colder members, esp 16-19 Jan.

 

 

 

Posted Image

 

 

 

Edited by shedhead

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There are enough ecm ens members delaying the colder temps to make ian's tweet televant. however, steve is likely right that the ens will slowly come around. it is a tricky situation though where the atlantic trough is pushing se whilst the scandi is moving sw.

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The met office are not fully on board yet for snow away from northern hills today's update it pretty much the same as yesterday

 

UK Outlook for Monday 13 Jan 2014 to Wednesday 22 Jan 2014:

 

It will become colder, especially in the north where there is an increasing risk of snow, mainly over hills, with nearer normal temperatures at times in the south, and an increasing risk of frost, ice and fog. Later in the month changeable conditions are likely to continue, especially in the northwest, with the best of the drier weather in the east.

 

8 day temperature anomaly from GFS shows a lot of the UK becoming cooler the main exception is the far south where temperatures remain slightly above normal still, looking NE Scandinavia is cooling down rapidly

 

Posted Image

 

Normal temps left expected temps right

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Summer Sun
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Nobody... lite their cigars yet! More runs needed!

 

You will Jinx it...

can you smell smoke :)

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There are enough ecm ens members delaying the colder temps to make ian's tweet televant. however, steve is likely right that the ens will slowly come around. it is a tricky situation though where the atlantic trough is pushing se whilst the scandi is moving sw.

yes 60/40 still seems appropriate with scuppers still in the mix however exiting nonetheless....

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06Z

 

This should liven the forum proceedings up somewhat.

 

post-6879-0-50820600-1389184479_thumb.pn

 

Especially with the impetus on an E SE bias :)

 

T168 -  potential from the East next Wednesday and we have been looking at tapping in to the bonkers extremes from N America?

 

Ice Axe sharpening up.....

 

Ian

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How can you say that with any confidence, a week ago it was westerlys ALL THE WAY.  Having said that, let's get there first and worry about elongation or not next week. BFTP

bftp,this is indeed what the models are showing, both gefs & ecm extended. As ever, all we have are the models. So members can of course question the longevity if that is their wish, its all part of model discussion after all. I agree, broadly with your closing sentence, but it is a valid observation from EML.
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just a few tweets from big joe b this morning,

Joe laminate flooriâ€@BigJoelaminate floori 31m

@Hudsonweather @bryan629 Strat warm and positives popping over Greenland/Iceland means big change

Joe laminate flooriâ€@BigJoelaminate floori 33m

@Hudsonweather @bryan629 trust ecmwf means.. colder is coming pic.twitter.com/QTODUV9IZe

post-18134-0-57790200-1389184204_thumb.p

so fingers crossed the ecm 12z will hold the block steady higher up.

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No  real snow ramping from METO today for next week

 

UK Outlook for Monday 13 Jan 2014 to Wednesday 22 Jan 2014:

Although showers and longer spells of rain will continue to affect the UK, conditions are not expected to be as stormy as those of recent weeks. At first, the strongest winds and heaviest rain are most likely in the west of the UK, then perhaps in the south and southwest, whilst the east will hang on to the driest weather. It will become colder, especially in the north where there is an increasing risk of snow, mainly over hills, with nearer normal temperatures at times in the south, and an increasing risk of frost, ice and fog. Later in the month changeable conditions are likely to continue, especially in the northwest, with the best of the drier weather in the east.

Updated: 1156 on Wed 8 Jan 2014

 

Posted Image

Edited by Purga
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