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phil nw.

Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

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I like the 06z much better IMO than the 00z, 528 line covering the UK, which will increase the chance of those showers coming in from the east..

Posted Image

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With the Jet stream in this position and better heights to our north , this is better prospect for a long lived cold spell

 

post-2036-0-34647700-1389177359_thumb.pn

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No suprise IMO with regards to the 00z or the 06z - Our local forecaster gave a slight insight yesterday on local radio ( BBC Leeds ) stating the outlook was 'cooler' which is no suprise after the cuurent above average temps but then said the models he had viewed hinted at a 2-3 day cold and snowy spell possible around the middle of next week ... no mention of any prolonged cold though  :(

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Let's pray it IS coming over here next ! :) at least large few of us on here !

My attempt at attaching a photo of the sun headline eludes me! Never mind ðŸ˜

Edited by chiller

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In terms of pressure and JS I would say it's on par with the 00z, maybe actually slightly better "long term". In terms of the T850's and the cold actually arriving, no 2 ways about it, it's a massive downgrade.Perhaps reality will be some sort of middle ground.

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Once past 120-144hrs it matters not a jot if the 06 is slightly better/slightly worse or the same. The important fact is the overall evolution remains pretty solid, as long as doesn't change any inter run variability across one particular model is unimportant. However, we will as even need to look out for shortwave development IF things remain on track as far as timing is concerned, because they will crop up as sure as night follows day. 

Edited by shedhead

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A nice 6z run. And ample for improvement as we head forward. No need for any panic AT ALL....

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was just gona say the same thing!!its so annoying!!I dont see any downgrade at all!!

there are going to be variations between runs, and I don't believe anyone is saying 'downgrade'... As some have said, this hasn't even happened, and while the projection may be for it to fade..we should just let it develop and go from there. But please, if people want to voice their thoughts, why take it as a negative. The weather will do what it wants regardless. Edited by draztik

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In terms of pressure and JS I would say it's on par with the 00z, maybe actually slightly better "long term". 

In terms of the T850's and the cold actually arriving, no 2 ways about it, it's a massive downgrade.

Perhaps reality will be some sort of middle ground.

 

Posted Image

AT THE END OF THE RUN THE LOW PUSHES SOUTH EAST,THIS IN TURN PULLS THE COLD UPPERS BACK TOWARDS THE UK.

 

NOT A BAD RUN AT ALL!Posted Image

Edited by snowice

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No suprise IMO with regards to the 00z or the 06z - Our local forecaster gave a slight insight yesterday on local radio ( BBC Leeds ) stating the outlook was 'cooler' which is no suprise after the cuurent above average temps but then said the models he had viewed hinted at a 2-3 day cold and snowy spell possible around the middle of next week ... no mention of any prolonged cold though  Posted Image

 

 I personally would be happy with a cold and snowy 2-3 day snap,who really knows how long it could last,worst case the cold snap

 might not start at all

 

 C.S

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Nice to see the Jet taking a holiday to North Africa at last though.

 

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Great to see some more seasonal weather that most of us crave this morning!  Keep up the good analysis (in the most part people) - but today shows me one thing for sure...... the weather will do what Mother Nature dictates it will do what it wants to do - the models do not dictate the weather!

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To my mind that's a much better 06z than the 0z, trading a day or so of colder uppers next week for something much more sustainable long term, the key being the low pushed further west getting some pale blue into Greenland for an extended period.

 

It's also a much snowier run, those are no barren easterlies.

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Very good support from the EPS members this morning at day 5 for a negatively tilted disrupted trough and a nicely orientated High to the NE for UK cold air advection thereafter. There are just a handful of members that positively tilt the trough and send energy NE, but this is quite some impressive turnaround of support for a cold spell to appear this quickly

 

Posted Image

 

 

As one who has suggested right up to last night that this Scandinavian High building attempt would likely be more successful another time round later in the month, coming against the background of such strong polar westerlies breaking down for the first time this season, I am surprised and of course delighted to be seeing this round of output this morning.

 

I will be much happier still however, to see this mornings lovely output consolidated in consecutive further outputs as a way of checking that the models haven't gone from what has been a rampant westerly regime - to overestimating the effectiveness of recent wave activity on the vortex. Hopefully it will be steady eddy all the wayPosted Image

 

Hi Tamara,

 

While it certainly looks interesting for next week, I still think you are correct in first estimations, re second bite of the cold further into the month.

 

Posted Image

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Nobody... lite their cigars yet! More runs needed!

 

You will Jinx it...

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It really is a weird run to call either "better" or "worse". The Heights to the north aren't as good, but then theres more low to the south of europe which is better. I think the only thing we can say is that its "different" with a similar outcome. 

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Model runs look fab after what we've endured so far this Winter. Nuff said!

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Finally the hunt for cold and snow begins.

 

Certinaly not going to do a victory dance yet , but after enduring 6 weeks of mush and muck it's a joy to finally have a carrott dangling in front of us.

 

It is looking like a cold snap though as opposed to a cold spell, maybe 3-5 days before a return to Westerly's.

 

But i'd take that given what we have had up until now.

 

Hopefully th ensembles and 12z runs will continue the trend towards cold and potentially snowy.

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Finally the hunt for cold and snow begins.

 

Certinaly not going to do a victory dance yet , but after enduring 6 weeks of mush and muck it's a joy to finally have a carrott dangling in front of us.

 

It is looking like a cold snap though as opposed to a cold spell, maybe 3-5 days before a return to Westerly's.

 

But i'd take that given what we have had up until now.

 

Hopefully th ensembles and 12z runs will continue the trend towards cold and potentially snowy.

 

Yep, agree with that.

 

A short cold snap with potential snow should wet the appetitie of some members here.

 

Atlantic to return, albeit IMO looking at the setups from the charts will be shortlived before more substantial blocking takes place and we get an actual decent cold SPELL running into February.

 

The stage is set, the signals are there... Enjoy coldies, it's been a long time coming. Posted Image

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Don't normally see such huge swings in the euro models at the 5 day range,although i'm

not complaining!

 

ECM yesterday and today..

 

UKMO yesterday and today..

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