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phil nw.

Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

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Deep low developed SW of Greenland, not sure how that will effect it all, could barrel through....

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Twitter going nuts about it all, UK and Europe. Here is one post, 

 

 

 

We have a MAJOR BREAKING WEATHER MODEL STORY by the GEM 00z . A yellow ICELAND HIGH 1035 , this is MASSIVE ATTACK ! pic.twitter.com/x8ZUixR2K8

I'm not surprised its a very impressive run.

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Practically same as the 00z this 06z gfs!!heights still there around scandi but not as strong!!just a variation in theme!!

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I urge caution when using the words 'reliable timeframe' when easterlies show up. T+48hrs is about as reliable as it gets in these scenario's.

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There really are some 'miseries' on this thread, just waiting to add something negative to what so far has been the best day in a long while! Thank goodness there is 'Ignore' Preferences.

was just gona say the same thing!!its so annoying!!I dont see any downgrade at all!!

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Practically same as the 00z this 06z gfs!!heights still there around scandi but not as strong!!just a variation in theme!!

Yes but not a positive variation at 132h as most of us are getting a soaking!!

Nowhere near as good as 0z or the ecm!

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It is a downgrade earlier on, at T132 on the 00Z we had -8 uppers, now -2......You can't argue that...

 

However still time to get better

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Perfectly happy with the run upto t144. Never going to be a carbon copy. General theme the same. No SW drama!! Pointless looking at detail.

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The 6Z is usually the most progressive of the 4 GFS runs, so this shouldn't come as too much of a surprise. However, still a signficant upgrade on yesterday's 6Z:

Posted ImagePosted Image

From an IMBY perspective these easterlies often have a tendency to correct southwards so I'd rather see charts that are a bit too far north at this stage than ones where HP is just sitting over us.

Edited by LomondSnowstorm

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Perfectly happy with the run upto t144. Never going to be a carbon copy. General theme the same. No SW drama!! Pointless looking at detail.

yup that's what I was saying aswell!!the high was sort of sinking at bout 160 hours on the 00z but not on this run!!we might have had lower 850s but it probably would av been dryer on the 00z!!

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if only people could wait till at least the end of high res to assess a run, this thread would be so much calmer

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It is a downgrade earlier on, at T132 on the 00Z we had -8 uppers, now -2......You can't argue that...

 

However still time to get better

Of course it is, but why are you looking at the uppers or at any such detail at such time frames?

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144hrs is realistically as far ahead as we need to look for now imo and perhaps not unsurprisingly the 06 is less clean by then....let the shortwave drama commence, you just knew it wouldPosted Image

 

Posted Image

Edited by shedhead

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Thank goodness for that, a bit of a downgrade but with lots of time and wiggle room to shift back to something much better,

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Woah. Take a chill pill people.

 

Yes it is a downgrade from the 00z GFS run, but that is standard for the 06z GFS run.

 

The overall pattern is similar, the 06z run will just take 2 bites to get the Easterly in that is all.

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people talking about how long will the cold spell last before it's even arrived ...WHY ? ..people getting hung on a single run ..upgrade/downgrade ..WHY ? ..surely it's a trend that we are looking for and as far I can see the trend is for a cold spell of weather to arrive next week !!

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Best run in ages just needs to get a bit closer to the reliable time frame.

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if anyone can complain at this, they need their meteorological head testing:

Posted Image

 

If you're the sort that wants Snowmaggedon, everything else is *meh* !

 

Looks pretty good for some cold weather expecially given what we've had so far this winter. What will happen, will happen.

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Personally I think this run is better in the long run and for longevity of 'opportunity'.

The high maybe further north but it is not sinking and cold is building and building over northern Europe.

 

EDIT: Look at the low heights in the central northern med at T180 on this run, 8mb lower pressure than the 00z for the same time! Fantastic!

Edited by Paceyboy

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The more I look at the 06z gfs the more I think what a beautiful run it is!!slider lows galore!!what a 174 hour chart!!at the same time on the 00z there was energy goin underneath the high and also over the top!!on this run everything is underneath!!and matt hugo has just posted that the ecm is somewhat of a cold outlier!!well in my opinion its on the cold side but defo plenty of support for it!!and its got the control to back it up!!we see what the 12z shows!!if it shows the same on this evening then all the doubts of it being a cold outlier will be wiped clean!!

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people talking about how long will the cold spell last before it's even arrived ...WHY ? ..people getting hung on a single run ..upgrade/downgrade ..WHY ? ..surely it's a trend that we are looking for and as far I can see the trend is for a cold spell of weather to arrive next week !!

 

I just think people are being cautious.

 

We all look "beyond FI" if you can call it that, for cold spells, and at present albeit in la-la land, the ECM at 240 shows the Atlantic getting back in.

Similarly at 228 on the 0z GFS.

 

We've been waiting for this for that long, you can't blame people for being worried! Lots of "behind the sofa" model watching to be had in the coming week or so!

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I will take that for the last chart in High Res.

 

Posted Image

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