Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
phil nw.

Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

Recommended Posts

well snowing if thats the case then that shows the midlands copping it nicely!!especially the east!!can you post the dew points and wbfl charts sk?

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=ECMWF&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=0&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0

 

Click on settings icon next to model data in right hand column to choose what data you want to see, nothing for dew points from ECM but cant think of any other site (including the iceland one Nick put up) that gives as much ECM data, including snowfall. Click on time line calendar on he bottom for your timescale.

 

Hope it helps Posted Image

Edited by Arron B

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The GEM did seem to be the model that first picked this cold spell up, looking at the charts it also looks like the best one with regards to a prolonged cold spell...Lets hope it's correct again.

Be interesting to hear the METOs thoughts today, maybe they can shed more light...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ECM ensemble shows the coldest air (-6 850's) lasting 3 days before moving away

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

Op run for the same time

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

So comparing the two there is clearly some big differences in how cold it may get and how long it could last

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Fantastic output this morning with pretty much all the NWP advertising an easterly regime next week.

Really waiting to hear from fergie/meto because it all seems to have happened so fast, im not sure if its too good to be true?

One things for sure,if we generate a bit of wind that warm north sea should produce convection....:D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Cracking charts this morning but I do feel that the Atlantic is not done yet this winter. As ever with these setups the smallest things make a big difference.

 

What I will add is over the past 2 days I have seen thousands of birds flying south... never seen so many in my life!

 

I'd second the 'bird model' observation - lots of them leaving the marshes a mile down the road from me.

Edited by Barking_Mad

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Fantastic output this morning with pretty much all the NWP advertising an easterly regime next week.Really waiting to hear from fergie/meto because it all seems to have happened so fast, im not sure if its too good to be true?One things for sure,if we generate a bit of wind that warm north sea should produce convection....:D

I have a feeling fergie is about to blast us away with a brilliant update!!beware of fergie peeps!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The fact that the ECM Op and Control were at the coldest end of the Ens does not fill me with optimism...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Absolutely SS, No point in comparing detail atm, as so much can happen in such a small space of time as we have seen overnight.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ECM ensemble shows the coldest air (-6 850's) lasting 3 days before moving away

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

Op run for the same time

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

So comparing the two there is clearly some big differences in how cold it may get and how long it could last

Not that surprising really - there are unlikely to be many colder runs than the op for the UK and there's also bound to be differences in timings - some will probably bring the cold in a bit later like the GEM while others will have the high sinking back over us pretty quickly. It really has been quite an exceptional upgrade this morning, which is great, although I'll feel a lot more confident if we're seeing similar (or perhaps even better!) charts by the time we reach 12Z tomorrow.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Easterlies always raises the most excitement on here. My excitement is a bit more "meh" as I personally have to say that an Easterly pretty much never produces snow for me here (Glasgow). But It's certainly a welcome break from storm after storm. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ahha that's better just out of the reliable time frame but close. It's going to be interesting if it does come off how long it can last for.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Talk of longivity is premature as the cold spell hasn't even hit yet but i will say,without height rises across Iceland/Greenland a scandy high on its own will not usually be enough to provide  along lasting cold spell...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Let's not worry about 'how long it will last' !

 

It's a great lurch forward to be at this point where the talk is realistically to be about where snow is likely to fall in any part of the the UK and not the just Scotland!

 

As good a mean ECM chart as we could wish for for potential snow

 

Posted Image

Whatever happens the odds are now looking good for a decent cold shot next week and it's got to be a massive improvement on what we've endured so far.

 

And, yes, I know 'caution is to be advised' etc. etc. Posted Image

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Really good runs this morning, though I think I would be happier if we had waited a few more days before seeing such good charts, too many days of adjustments for my liking and there is no question, there will be adjustments, there always is, I hope they are for the better. The other thing of note, is that for all its critics the GFS in rather typical fashion has gone with the idea of a possible easterly before the ECM and this despite being late to smell the coffee in regards the broader blocking signal, it may waver on the diving board for a long while but once it decides to jump it’s a double pike triple summersault job.

Edited by weather eater

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The fact that the ECM Op and Control were at the coldest end of the Ens does not fill me with optimism...

yes ali but they are not outliers cos they are well supported with the other ensembles!!just to put your mind at ease!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As ever there is no real point in discussing how long something will last before it's even arrived, especially when it's an E'erly and it's not due to arrive for 5 or 6 days. Let's see what the 06 goes for, because over the last few days it has been one of the keener GFS runs to build pressure to the NE. 

 

Just an aside...isn't it odd that when mild you can't wait to view the next updates for some hope, but when cold is progged you almost don't want to look in case it disappears again. OK, perhaps it's a personal thing...Posted Image

Absolutely - it'll be 'from behind the sofa' model viewing for a while now! Posted Image

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Has the 06z gfs bought us back down to earth??too nervous to look at it!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Has the 06z gfs bought us back down to earth??too nervous to look at it!!

shes going fine....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Re the longevity of the cold spell I think we may have to accept a return to more average conditions after next week. However my gut feeling is that the PV will run out of steam for the second half of winter a reload may not be too far away. There are signs from the stratosphere of a period of strong wave 2 activity late January which should lead to a break up of the PV and more wintry conditions for February. 

 

Lets just enjoy the cold / snow next week and just hope this is just a taster of what is to come for the final 3rd of winter Posted Image

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Twitter going nuts about it all, UK and Europe. Here is one post, 

 

Posted Image

 

We have a MAJOR BREAKING WEATHER MODEL STORY by the GEM 00z . A yellow ICELAND HIGH 1035 , this is MASSIVE ATTACK ! pic.twitter.com/x8ZUixR2K8

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

shes going fine....

phew!!I think we're all in for a long few days!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like a slight downgrade, jet not digging south down the atlantic as much, and the Scandy high is slightly weaker

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

6z has brought to an end the successive upgrading of the spell and has lower height build to our northeast.

 

Although it is still a positive run.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This may well be the classic 2 bites of the cherry spell coming up. Remember when I was a kid you always got a small outbreak with little snow before the main event 1 to 2 weeks later.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...