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phil nw.

Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

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Are you saying "no need for a second bite" there Chio..?  Do you think this first push is enough to bring something of note?

 

Maybe these are premature questions, but i like your confidence ! Posted Image

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Morning Campers Posted Image cracking start to the day. i'm I being greedy in being concerned that ECM 240 looks like a sinker and that any cold will be a snap only, I want a spell at the very least Posted Image

 

So greedy I know, how do we address this minor fly in the ointmint...i guess it would be perfect if the ECM Op is towards the top of the pack when the ensembles are out - fingers crossed.

 

Have a cracking day folks - it will be hard working today as I will popping in here a lot me thinks.

 

Cheers

Edited by TSNWK

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If it happens, still FI remember but well done to carinthian, who seemed to predict this when no sign of it on models,

yes cariinthain said this  would happen weeks.Very spooky how accurate he was.Maybe the computer he uses for his forecasts should also be used to predict the lottery and where the ball is going to land on the roulette wheel.lol

 

So snow possibly for many by mid-month.

 

What a turnaround!

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Whilst we look further afield the ECMWF Det. this morning actually throws up a marginal snow event on Monday morning:

Posted Image

Dew Points and WBFL's supportive of something wintry in roughly a line from London to Aberystwyth Northwards.

Not of course that I'm advocating the following of distant marginal snow events....

SK

well snowing if thats the case then that shows the midlands copping it nicely!!especially the east!!can you post the dew points and wbfl charts sk? Edited by shaky

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It is the wave activity wot dun it! Great to see these charts - and a couple of weeks earlier than expected as well. Bring it on!

am sure there were mentions of needing a another bout of wave wave activity to disrupt the vortex but as you can see who needs another bout the last few have done the job!!if there is another phase of wave activity then there will probably be no vortex at all!!these charts charts remind me exactly of January last year and boy what a snowfall we had then!!

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Glasgow Ensembles:

 

post-1038-0-84539900-1389170976_thumb.pn

 

Taking an educated guess based upon the slowly increasing Max. temperature trend but rather steady Min. temperature I would say generally high pressure sinking from the ensembles which we can also see in action here:

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

SK

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0z ensembles from Holland:

 

Posted Image

 

Control and Op in harmony but on the colder side

 

SK

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A few people saying the cold would not last long, I disagree, if we DO get to T144, what can the block do next? Go east and we keep a cold continental flow. Go west and we set up for a northerly. Seems v unlikely the block would go north. And even if it sinks south as per ECM, it would take several days to get back to a westerly from there. The most likely follow-on, IMO, would be for the block to hold in situ for at least a few days to the north of Scotland, meaning more of the same. But that's getting WAY too far ahead!

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well snowing if thats the case then that shows the midlands copping it nicely!!especially the east!!can you post the dew points and wbfl charts sk?

 

 

s Posted Image

Edited by Arron B
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this may show why the models show a return to zonal late in fi

Posted Image

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Well without a doubt the GFS brings out the first "proper" winter charts since early Dec anyway. 

Big question now is will it upgrade or will it downgrade? Place your bets please! Posted Image

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Well without a doubt the GFS brings out the first "proper" winter charts since early Dec anyway. 

Big question now is will it upgrade or will it downgrade? Place your bets please! Posted Image

 

I'd actually say a big question is how long this is going to last. We have cross model support of a cold spell now. Gibby summed it up nicely though, there is uncertainty as to how prolonged this will be.

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Cracking charts this morning but I do feel that the Atlantic is not done yet this winter. As ever with these setups the smallest things make a big difference.

 

What I will add is over the past 2 days I have seen thousands of birds flying south... never seen so many in my life!

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Agree with much of the optimism on here - but although this may be a red herring, the GEM ensembles this morning paint a milder picture so we're not there yet! Still several days at least to go! But oh my what a change in the output over the last 48 hours.

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Cracking charts this morning but I do feel that the Atlantic is not done yet this winter. As ever with these setups the smallest things make a big difference.

 

What I will add is over the past 2 days I have seen thousands of birds flying south... never seen so many in my life!

 

They must have been checking the GEM. Certainly weren't GFS watchers ;-)

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Excellent cross model agreement but what impresses me more is how accurate Carinthian's updates have been throughout this winter, and why are the models that they use so much better than anything else at picking up features weeks in advance.

 

Maybe GP is the head of operations?Posted Image 

 

 

Fantastic runs and upgrades this morning,although the GEM had the pattern nailed

last Saturday.Posted Image 

 

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