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phil nw.

Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

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Makes a nice change this morning, normally the overnight runs are shocking!

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Looks great for cold next week, looking at the charts has this got the scope to be prolonged cold????

Looks like it's not one that will last too long, plenty of time to change though...short cold is good after the start we've had...

 

I would not worry how long it will last, it's not here yet ! and once Europe has cooled the models will then get a clearer look on things. Like i said yesterday we are still waiting for the Atlantic to slow down, so lot's to happen in the real world yet, As LS, myself and others have stressed and is said year in year out, lets get the cold here first, at least that is a dead cert now !Posted Image

Edited by Polar Maritime

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Posted Image

 

Perfection....

 

Yes its the GEM BUT of all the models for me the GEM has led the weay on this pending cold spell and I won't discount it yet.  The pattern change is iminent, indeed some would say is already underway, and with no real strat assistance....it can happen

 

BFTP

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This will give you tingles first thing in the morning !

 

Posted Image

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Just had a look at the EC, that's a suite and a half, especially compared to previous... Time to buckle in- winters REALLY about to start; caution is always urged though, as many on here know...

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This will give you tingles first thing in the morning !

 

Posted Image

Someone said you can't get cold in uk with cold over East USA and Canada!! Apart from the great looking charts, I do hope some will use them to learn!!

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Fantastic wintry potential from the 00z runs..bitterly cold replaces bitter disappointment, only one thing left to say right now....BOOOOOOOM :-)

 

Yes Karl, It's nice to have that buzz back, it feels like we have been waiting an eternity ! 

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Nice runs this morning!!!! Winter 2013/14 looks to be on the way at last.

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Very nice runs this morning! GEM has been the trend setter for this spell! it never gave up!

 

What gets me excited is these current sea temperatures

Posted Image

 

Mixed with these uppers tracking over from the east

Posted Image

 

Boom snow machine! Lets hope :)

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Last week I posted some charts to show how in 47 we went from a miserable SW pattern to a bitter E pattern in little over a week and looking at the ECM those charts are pretty much replicated by it 00 output. Given what we have seen so far through extended Autumn the latest suites look very pleasing indeed, but most if not all of us know that getting E'erlies into the UK is very rarely as straightforward as the models suggest when past T+120hrs. A significant step in the right direction though and even earlier than I expected.

Edited by shedhead

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500 online at 8am....LOL. Must be a whiff of something in the air??

 

Keep in mind this model output is still progressing, let's keep the 'It'll end on the .....whatever" down please.

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Oh my days I was just about to wet myself!!I have just woken up and seen some of the most unbelievable charts ever!!and all of the upgrades have happened in such a short time!!and it could upgrade even further!!

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WHO NEEDS MODELS LIKE YASMIN,NAOMI,AND CLAUDIA, WHEN WE HAVE SUPER MODELS ECMWF GFS UKMO. What Fantastic runs over nightPosted ImagePosted Image

Edited by snowice

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