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phil nw.

Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

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Interesting 18z, nice low south of Scandy too

 

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Edited by Matty M

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Given the number of 'popular' posts, it would appear the happy boat to the arctic is about to set sail!

i wouldn't say i was as bullish as many in here, but the chances of a period of colder weather has increased this evening, no doubt! Wont labour too much re snap vrs spell, as that's almost irrelevant!

I still consider a return to a more west-east flow the favored long term route towards end of month.

in saying all of that, these scandi blocks can prove to be stubborn, and i suppose its longevity could be sustained! Models have been too progressive in the past to shunt heights too quickly after being established!

the great news from the ens tonight is a westward correction in terms of trough disruption, so hopefully we wont see a huge volume of water being dropped on us! Hugely welcome!

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Ignoring the OP, the Control is lovely.

 

 

 

actually glenn, it isnt much different than the op for us. and then it goes all less cold post day 10 and eventually settled under an mlb.

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132 and the cold to our East is just awaiting the order to Charge!!!

 

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last winter, when we saw these scenarios unfold, we took bets on the precip not making it to the east coast. given the strength of the atlantic, we are not thinking this way. however, it wouldnt take too much westward correction from the cold to our east for this to begin to look possible.

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144h Wow that's amazing :)

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A very positive move from the GFS tonight, looks even better on WZ.

 

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A huge correction West by the 18z this evening,again taking the chart for Sunday as the example.

 

yesterday..  tonight..Posted Image 

 

 

If Carlsberg made upgrades...

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actually glenn, it isnt much different than the op for us. and then it goes all less cold post day 10 and eventually settled under an mlb.

 

Yep thats true ba... But it's well into the future and all it takes is a little tweaking and who knows what will crop up. Certainly the first time of real interest to be viewing the models non the less.

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We are on a really good trend now, with the high pressure to our north and northeast being increased run to run and the Atlantic lows being squeezed further south. Let's hope it holds up through the next few days and all of a sudden we could have a good cold spell starting next week!!

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If this low goes under then it's going to be a good run to say the least!!

 

Posted Image

Edited by Ice Day
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A huge correction West by the 18z this evening,again taking the chart for Sunday as the example.

 

yesterday..Posted Imagegfs-2014010618-0-144.png  tonight..Posted Image Posted Imagegfs-0-120.png

 

 

If Carlsberg made upgrades...

Am sure even though uppers aren't great on that chart we still have cold conditions at the surface which would mean snow on the front of that shortwave!!
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Next front begins to push forward hitting the cold building east.

 

Posted Image

Turns to snow on leading edge likely to stall.

 

Posted Image

Edited by SN0WM4N

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Winter was just on the phone. Said sorry for all the delays but was on his way. Also asked to have COBRA book a reservation through to end of Feb.

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

Just a bit of OTT fun. Posted Image

Let's hope tomorrow continues the improvements and prospects for some cold and snow from around mid month we have seen todayPosted Image

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Next front begins to push forward hitting the cold building east.

 

Posted Image

Turns to snow on leading edge likely to stall.

 

Posted Image

Warm air will eventually get mixed out, I'm expecting a Midlands North event, the band will sink SE with rain turning to snow on its back edge. 

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Important not to take any details in these runs to heart.

 

It is the broad trends that are of importance at the minute.

 

Going to be an interesting few days no doubt. I wonder when the Express will catch wind of the potential??

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If we could keep the 18Z and add a little more chill from the east, there would be a snow mountain somewhere in the UK next week. As it stands, most of the snow will be on the mountains and the mountain of flood water will just keep coming further south.

But synoptically, this run is the best for snow potential yet.

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A very pertinent post by Nick F earlier this evening about one plausible scenario that could lead to even more rain. To that effect the 18z is very much the way we need to see the output trending, taking the low as far west and south of the UK (within reason) as possible as it heads se.

 

EDIT: Just seen you have quoted the same post above Tamara Posted Image

Edited by s4lancia
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LOL high sinks quicker than the Titanic in GFS low res.

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