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phil nw.

Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

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On the other hand, modelling sometimes underestimates pressure rises to the E/NE

True, but that's when we've an established block in place with the Atlantic trying to break through, here we have the block trying to get a foothold with the Atlantic trying to push through.

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Tonight's late but now fully updated UKMO

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

850's only loading to t120 currently

 

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Edited by Summer Sun
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Well a definite improvement in the ENS

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UKMO out to 120hrs now

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LP comes crashing through at 144hrs

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Edited by Purga

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CFS and GFS 12z look very similar and that's undercutting but unfortunately then go for a weak easterly which is typically 'toppled' from the north - we shall see!

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Anyone notice the op ECM at day 10 digging the trough into the central conus ?? Re my post from earlier. not there yet but early days.

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Any news yet on the whereabouts of the UKMO? I saw that it was a data issue to the external providers but surely they all can't have the same problem unless the issue is starting at UKMO headquarters.

 

Typical it never went missing when the models were just spewing out zonal muck but of all the evenings for this to happen!

Government cut backs hits UKMO!

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UKMO perhaps better going forward than most of the other models at 144hrs. Looks like heights may cut in across Greenland.

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Government cut backs hits UKMO!

Is nowhere safe from George Osborne??
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Interesting UKMO and really okay because that's actually better upstream. At T144hrs we see lots of differences with phasing issues and timing across the big 3, the UKMO troughing is more favourably shaped, but the pattern too far east, in the ECM phasing has already occurred and that's also the same with the GFS.

 

The UKMO could end up the cleanest transition to cold with a few tweeks, overall we're still not really much further along knowing what exactly is going to happen.

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Interesting UKMO and really okay because that's actually better upstream. At T144hrs we see lots of differences with phasing issues and timing across the big 3, the UKMO troughing is more favourably shaped, but the pattern too far east, in the ECM phasing has already occurred and that's also the same with the GFS.

 

The UKMO could end up the cleanest transition to cold with a few tweeks, overall we're still not really much further along knowing what exactly is going to happen.

Yes we do Nick.

There will be blue bits pushing green bits, purple bits almost scared of the blue bits and the yellow? another story.

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i  know  people  are trying to see the American  weather  come here i cant  see it even  f1  if i am not right i put my hands up but at the moment the only days which we might see some  snow is  jan  17,18, 22  23 at  the  moment  and  that deep f1

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

Edited by tinybill
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Very decent ECM ensemble mean at day 6 and 7.

 

Posted Image

Posted Image

Edited by mulzy
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i  know  people  are trying to see the American  weather  come here i cant  see it even  f1  if i am not right i put my hands up but at the moment the only day which we might see some  snow is  jan 22  23 at  the  moment  and  that deep f1

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

That be for your location you mean?

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Quite a steep dive in the AO ens this evening as we head further through January.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

The NAO still looks like remaining around neutral to possibly positive for the foreseeable future.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

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That be for your location you mean?

yes

post-4629-0-63562300-1389127186_thumb.pn

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