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Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.


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ECM Looks the wrong side of marginal to me south of Manchester. By 192hrs the positive uppers are reaching Scotland. Could be some decent snow for high ground in the north. All a tad irrelevant at the moment though, let's hope the low goes a bit further south than currently shown!

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You have to remember that one of the things the models struggle with most is trough disruption. The 168 chart is still a long way away and the models will play around with westwards/eastward correction every run. A couple of hundred mile shift west before that chart gets to +0 and its a different story. Remember last winter how all of a sudden at +96/120 range, the models underestimated the amount of trough disruption? interesting times.

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At work and on phone so can't post charts. But from what I'm seeing and reading it looks like heavy rain away from Scotland. Not for me thank you after all this flooding. Why can't we just have a drying out period.

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Taken at face value heavy driving snow away from windward coasts north of England and inland East Anglia northwards. However at this range this could change so calm down!!!

Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image we are moving in the right direction but caution needed ,slowly slowly does it .

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Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

Here we gooooooooooooooooooooooo Posted Image

Thats a lovely wedge of high pressure across the GIN.

Something at last for us long suffering coldies to get our teeth into ..

 

Gonna need a GIN and sedatives if that lot comes off LOLPosted Image

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There is a possibility that the Scandy Spitzbergen high could grow and extend to the SE once that low gets out of the way but time will tell.  I would be looking more towards the end of the month rather than the middle for more wintry weather down here at Watford.  

Edited by mike Meehan
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Cold getting nudged back east a bit, slightly milder uppers over UK

 

Posted Image

 

Yep, very marginal for the UK - good for HIGH HIGH ground... Lots of twists and turns to come... Can the block hold out, or will the Atlantic smash through and break it? Fun times ahead.. It's probably time to Ensemble watch from here...

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Well here we are again.

 

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

State of that vortex.

 

Scandi heights reaching north to grab on to some new polar heights.

Edited by SN0WM4N
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I think someone mentioned a few days back that they expected the Cold to come very close to our east but need a second or third bite of the cherry to get the cold properly into the UK. Tonight and indeed the last couple of ECM's sum that up perfectly. One suspects that tonights ECM is bang on for the medium term, cooling down with a drier period, before things turn chillier, messy and wet rather than white again. The last week of January and February excite me greatly.

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Nice FI T168 charts from ECM but we lose the cold uppers with the lows ideally placed. Luckily it's well into FI so I'm not going to lose any sleep over it. However we still got the trend of undercutting so you never know it might get modified the right way.

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Cold slightly further east again, I think it's still a case of "more runs needed" from ECM.

[img=http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010712/ECM0-216.GIF?07-0

Your correct in what you are saying but I'd vouch for the fact that only 12 hours or so it was a brief Scandi high and then a quick return to

zonal. Now we have some trough distribution, potential snow and a slow return to mild. Give it a few days (very reminiscent of Jan to March 2013 in the sense that the mild air could keep getting pushed back) and we could be looking at at least a cold snap... Hard not to feel optimistic when compared to the last few weeks. Good (for the GFS) GFS 12z, GEM, ECM, JMA and we suspect the UKMO is ok. Roll on the Pub run!

Edited by SW Saltire
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Crikey people what do you want, let it develop. We have a rapid change to potential cold pattern appearing. Only 1 week ago we were looking at weeks and weeks of zoneality, indeed winter was over by some even yesterday. The window is being taken, now I'm happy.BFTP

 

Indeed Fred, im still waiting for the Atlantic to slow down ! More positive runs tonight, but we can now start to see the need for a second bite to bring us something of note.

Edited by Polar Maritime
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No point in getting hung up on details that far out. It would be great to see the battleground in the perfect place but then I know it will be different next run so no point being down if it's rain or up if it's snow  being modelled IMBY at the moment.

The output has taken a definite step toward the UK seeing something wintry develop around mid month so let's just hope for that to continue for now.

If a battleground scenario does develop forecasting rain/snow boundary can sometimes come down to a now cast let alone a week away! Fun to speculate though it is and there is no harm in that, just don't invest too much emotion into it at that range.

 

Now where is that UKMO?

 

Fergie!

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