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Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.


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Wow blizzards at 168hrs as the cold air undercuts the precip! now you need to see that low quickly disrupt allowing the high to  ridge west over the top.

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Here we gooooooooooooooooooooooo Posted Image

Thats a lovely wedge of high pressure across the GIN.

Something at last for us long suffering coldies to get our teeth into ..

Edited by Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
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Wow blizzards at 168hrs as the cold air undercuts the precip! now you need to see that low quickly disrupt allowing the high to  ridge west over the top.

 

Just noticed that, very nice indeed. Although it looks extremely marginal for the south on that, but North would see snow.

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Wow blizzards at 168hrs as the cold air undercuts the precip! now you need to see that low quickly disrupt allowing the high to  ridge west over the top.

That low is surely going to plough through France and the Channel from there, with very cold air racing westwards along the northern flank, probably a heavy rain to snow event with the UK possibly going into the freezer.

I cursed the output again Posted Image

Edited by Captain shortwave
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It's because the GFS chart is 12 hours later. See time the chart is for top right. ECM/GEM 8th 00z, GFS 8th 12z.

If you take GFS back 12 hours or the Euros forward 12h you will see there is little discrepancy. Hope that helps.

It does, thanks Mucka

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Hmm, the other day you were saying the charts were very poor and you believed them over the Met Office's 16-13 forecast for potential cold in a few weeks time. Then you were championing the GFS stating that it was far more reliable than the ECM and probably had the pattern correct when the ECM was showing cold. Now the GFS is showing such solutions you've moved on to the BBC forecast. Where to next Terrier?

Tea leaves no doubt. I hear they reliably predict evil mildness if one arranges them in the correct manner.
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Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

Here we gooooooooooooooooooooooo Posted Image

Taken at face value heavy driving snow away from windward coasts north of England and inland East Anglia northwards. However at this range this could change so calm down!!!

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Not very cold uppers at 168, am I missing as to where the blizzards will be. Apart from Northern hills...

You don't need deep cold 850's the surface flow is east/se lower dew points, however because of the warmish sea temps snow is unlikely at least at this stage right on the coasts facing that flow.

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Heavy rain and strong winds apart from briefly on high ground in Scotland at +168? A classic? Seems the same old picture, a block trying to develop to the NE but overwhelmed by the Atlantic

 

Posted Image     Posted Image

Edited by Bobby
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Not very cold uppers at 168, am I missing as to where the blizzards will be. Apart from Northern hills...

 

Looks like blizzards for Scotland esp highlands, only rain south of Newcastle. 850's too high across most of England and Wales.

 

Posted Image

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Interesting battleground between the mild Atlantic and cold Continental air at T168hrs on ECM.

Further signs of the strengthening block forcing the main jet energy se.

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Heavy rain and strong winds apart from briefly on high ground in Scotland at +168? A classic? Seems the same old picture, a block trying to develop to the NE but overwhelmed by the Atlantic

 

Posted Image     Posted Image

 

With a few corrections your looking at battleground heavy snow UK wide. You are correct though, at the moment Scotland and far North of England will be happy.

Edited by Glenn W
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