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Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.


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Judging the by the T72hrs fax chart which looks a touch better than this mornings then unless theres been some major modification at T72rs to the raw output then the UKMO is unlikely to be sending the share price of Prozac up.

 what were you worrying about at T72 nick ?
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Judging the by the T72hrs fax chart which looks a touch better than this mornings then unless theres been some major modification at T72rs to the raw output then the UKMO is unlikely to be sending the share price of Prozac up.

 

What am I missing?

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Got a feeling that these charts are leading us all up the garden path. Because bbc news 24 just said settled 48hrs at weekend before more rain next week. So it sound pretty Atlantic driven into next week. Guess we will have to see what evolves over the coming days ahead. But I think we will miss first bite of the cherry before we get a second shot later jan. Think we will be too far west for the cold.

 

I am a GFS believer (fan if you like) and its great news the 12Z is flirting with colder air before 192, could really think a change to cold may well come now, winter has not started here yet, expecting it to soon, best GFS low res of season so far

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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010712/ECH1-96.GIF?07-0+

 

ECM at 96 shows about as good as we can hope for-

 

Early ridging North ( further west)

 

Shortwave undersscandi slightly further East.

UK starting to feel the colder air! - maybe some snow over scotalnd on saturday night with -6 uppers

 

S

Edited by Steve Murr
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Can you post the charts to show us what you mean?

I have noticed that GFS 850's are always modelled a good deal colder over the Arctic than its European counterparts but I think it is because the starting data is very limited for that region so it is estimated to some degree rather than measured but I don't think that is relevant to what you are asking.

I've tried to explain in pictures but i'm no Tony HartPosted Image

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I've tried to explain in pictures but i'm no Tony HartPosted Image

 

It's because the GFS chart is 12 hours later. See time the chart is for top right. ECM/GEM 8th 00z, GFS 8th 12z.

If you take GFS back 12 hours or the Euros forward 12h you will see there is little discrepancy. Hope that helps.

Edited by Mucka
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