Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[shedhead]

You were saying the GFS was the best model the other day?

Oh yeah....well it is again now

[gottolovethisweather]

Okay negative running more nw/se, neutral north/south and positive ne/sw the tilt is crucial neutral at worst to stop energy running ne , if its negative the energy shears away to the nw and neutral more north, as you can see here I would have been putting my pounds down on a wager but theres a troublesome shortwave to the north that needs to take a hike.

 

 

 

Energy? Do you mean the surface features themselves or potential fronts, I don't quite get the full gist of what you're saying and so many in here use that energy word.   Please assist me sir Nick.

[shaky]

where are you viewing the 12z UKMO?

meteociel

[Summer Sun]

meteociel

 

Thats the 00z run still

[warrenb]

The GFS just won't let the energy go underneath

[Panayiotis]

meteociel

Oh I asked because its still showing the 00z...

[Mucka]

Energy? Do you mean the surface features themselves or potential fronts, I don't quite get the full gist of what you're saying and so many in here use that energy word.   Please assist me sir Nick.

 

Nick can speak for himself but I use it to mean low pressure/trough/shortwave so if I said energy undercutting or going over the top and show a pressure chart it would be in that context.Otherwise I could be talking about the jet but often they are one and the same, "the jet splits energy" - "more energy into the Southern arm" etc in that context you would expect the pressure charts to reflect that with the distribution of energy evident in low pressure/trough/shortwave as above.

Edited January 7, 2014 by Mucka

[Cheshire Freeze]

Nick can speak for himself but I use it to mean low pressure/trough/shortwave so if I said energy undercutting or going over the top and show a pressure chart it would be in that context.Otherwise I could be talking about the jet but often they are one and the same, "the jet splits energy" - "more energy into the Southern arm" etc in that context you would expect the pressure charts to reflect with that with the distribution of energy evident in low pressure/trough/shortwave.

 

Exactly. Don't know what the issue is with the word to be completely honest. It may not be a term in the 'meteorological dictionary' but as far as I'm concerned it certainly should be.

 

When a low is split in terms of its actual entity, what are we supposed to call the split offshoots of this entity? e.g when a low approaches a block....some of the low goes over and some goes under.....that's a split of energy in my book.

Edited January 7, 2014 by CreweCold

[Panayiotis]

Energy? Do you mean the surface features themselves or potential fronts, I don't quite get the full gist of what you're saying and so many in here use that energy word.   Please assist me sir Nick.

Would this help?

[shaky]

The GFS just won't let the energy go underneath

from what I have seen this evening it most certainly did send energy underneath!

[Cumulonimbus Tower]

So, after an eternal amount of huffing and puffing the GFS finally advects some cold uppers west out of Europe for around 6 hours before the whole lot crashes and burns again. It's my opinion that when gfs gets into the low res part of the run it  can't handle the setup properly so goes off the rails somewhat.

I also can't help feeling that the sort of evolution that the GFS is showing today (up to around t200) might just be the final outcome (or a take on it anyway) m sure it will have subtle differences with heights east/west/north/south by the odd 1000 miles but the general evolution looks about right to me.....

Edited January 7, 2014 by Cumulonimbus Tower

[Nick L]

Exactly. Don't know what the issue is with the word to be completely honest. It may not be a term in the 'meteorological dictionary' but as far as I'm concerned it certainly should be.

 

When a low is split in terms of its actual entity, what are we supposed to call the split offshoots of this entity? e.g when a low approaches a block....some of the low goes over and some goes under.....that's a split of energy in my book.

 

The usage of it isn't necessarily the problem, rather the definition of it seeing as it's not a strict meteorological term and people just want clarification of what it actually means (or is supposed to mean). If everyone is singing from the same song book when using it then there's no issue

Edited January 7, 2014 by Nick L

[Cheshire Freeze]

So, after an eternal amount of huffing and puffing the GFS finally advects some cold uppers west out of Europe for around 6 hours before the whole lot crashes and burns again. It's my opinion that when gfs gets into the low res part of the run it  can't handle the setup properly so goes off the rails somewhat.

I also can't help feeling that the sort of evolution that the GFS is showing today (up to around t200) might just be the final outcome (or a take on it anyway) m sure it will have subtle differences with heights east/west/north/south by the odd 1000 miles but the general evolution looks about right to me.....

 

The 'odd 1000 miles' is critical in this situation.....it will mean the difference between a frigid easterly and mild w'lys when all said and done. That's how fine the margins are at present.

[MR EXTREMES]

ok so the ukmo has blown its model up not one chart out yet grrrrr

and the gem has stopped there servers have crashed I think on the http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php site

Edited January 7, 2014 by emotional rollercoaster

[Mucka]

JMA stops at the crucial point (The rest will come out toward the end of the ECM run) 

Looks okay but probably not as good as yesterday at the same point.

 

[Isabellesnanny]

Still a novice at the charts but the 15-30 day met office written forecast seems to indicate less wintry conditions than it showed earlier.

[Cumulonimbus Tower]

The 'odd 1000 miles' is critical in this situation.....it will mean the difference between a frigid easterly and mild w'lys when all said and done. That's how fine the margins are at present.

I realise that but i'm talking about the general evolution in this instance.

[draztik]

ok so the ukmo has blown its model up not one chart out yet grrrrr

and the gem has stopped there servers have crashed I think on the http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php site

 

you can view the updated GEM chart on meteocentre.com, its 12z run is complete there.

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?run=12&map=eur&mod=gemglb〈=en

Edited January 7, 2014 by draztik

[Mark Bayley]

Only time for a quick post but the GEM 12z looks interesting. Better height rises however low pressure overrides it later in the run

Edited January 7, 2014 by Mark Bayley

[weather eater]

So, after an eternal amount of huffing and puffing the GFS finally advects some cold uppers west out of Europe for around 6 hours before the whole lot crashes and burns again. It's my opinion that when gfs gets into the low res part of the run it  can't handle the setup properly so goes off the rails somewhat.

 

The GFS just goes out too far and in simple terms the sums just get bigger and bigger, the guess work at the numbers becomes greater and the calculations wilder. The ECM has it about right maybe stretching it a bit, even though we all wish that sometimes it went further, the UKMO arguably has it about spot on at 144hrs, still without the GFS this place would be a lot quieter in the winter time.

[MR EXTREMES]

Only time for a quick post but the GEM 12z looks interesting. Better height rises however low pressure overrides it later in the run

that is yet another nice chart from the gem, still cant see the ukmo though

[The PIT]

Blimey my first air frost is still there getting closer as well. Plenty of teasing from the GFS but the cookie still isn't there. We may even get some cold days in FI as well.

Anyway the vortex has had a few knocks and is wobbling a bit so models come throw up the odd surprise in the next few days.

[cyclonic happiness]

Exactly. Don't know what the issue is with the word to be completely honest. It may not be a term in the 'meteorological dictionary' but as far as I'm concerned it certainly should be.

 

When a low is split in terms of its actual entity, what are we supposed to call the split offshoots of this entity? e.g when a low approaches a block....some of the low goes over and some goes under.....that's a split of energy in my book.

I agree, how do people think terms get into professional use in the first place? anyway........

[gottolovethisweather]

Nick can speak for himself but I use it to mean low pressure/trough/shortwave so if I said energy undercutting or going over the top and show a pressure chart it would be in that context.Otherwise I could be talking about the jet but often they are one and the same, "the jet splits energy" - "more energy into the Southern arm" etc in that context you would expect the pressure charts to reflect that with the distribution of energy evident in low pressure/trough/shortwave as above.

 

Thanks Mucka, so hopefully we're both on the correct theme. I just think it would be advisable for certain members (not isolating anyone here) to use clearer precise terminology at times, especially when considering those lurking and are new to the game. 

 

In order to post something relative to this thread, how about the chart below which shows a rare sight of a HP cell somewhere near the UK, whatever next and its well into the reliable too. Another front not far away mind you even then.

 

 

Come Saturday its more to our East over the nearby continent and much larger, where will go next, find out tomorrow!

 

Edited January 7, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

The usage of it isn't necessarily the problem, rather the definition of it seeing as it's not a strict meteorological term and people just want clarification of what it actually means (or is supposed to mean). If everyone is singing from the same song book when using it then there's no issue

 

Misuse and overuse of the word spring to my mind too. Anyway, best move on, too much energy being put to use on this particular debate now.

Edited January 7, 2014 by gottolovethisweather