Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[Downpour]

Trough into Europe in the semi reliable from the farcically capricious GFS. That alone should give hope to our coldie brethren. Always a good sign.

[MR EXTREMES]

much better nh charts to

[LomondSnowstorm]

Some improvements on this run, including signs of that Northern Italian low which Carinthian mentioned earlier setting up and a negatively tilted trough, along with a slight westwards correction. The problem perhaps with an overly 'negative' trough rather than vertical is that the pattern is a bit too far north for us at the moment so we'd probably need another bite (since the 'second' low phases stopping that opportunity for Atlantic amplification on this run) but upstream it looks like we could get there with the next low, which is pretty well oriented at +144:

[Cheshire Freeze]

LP seemingly wants to hang around in the Atlantic for days on end like the local town looney

 

Edited January 7, 2014 by CreweCold

[MR EXTREMES]

What specifically confuses you? The 2nd chart is the anomaly chart (the difference from normal, not the actual temperature) if that helps?

but if we take the models at face value then the colder air is a bigger swath of eastern Europe and north eastern Europe.

but then again it is the gfs 6z and I expect it will change by the morning thanks nick l.

[Panayiotis]

Will we see an Atlantic ridge, joining up with the surface high to the north? Now that would be interesting!

Edited January 7, 2014 by Panayiotis

[MR EXTREMES]

LP seemingly wants to hang around in the Atlantic for days on end like the local town looney

 

it really has nowhere to go its homeless by the looks of things.

 

lovely much better

Edited January 7, 2014 by emotional rollercoaster

[Cheshire Freeze]

it really has nowhere to go its homeless by the looks of things.

 

If we go down this route it's imperative that we get the amplification behind that low....otherwise it's curtains. A high risk- high reward scenario unfolding here.

 

The much maligned Azores high may play an important role here by supporting the heights to the N if we see a chance of amplification behind that detached low a la 12z.....something the GEM saw first on its 12z run yesterday?

Edited January 7, 2014 by CreweCold

[Mucka]

You would expect GFS FI to go on to be cold and blocked with low pressure undercutting and reinforcing the blocking pattern but you never know with GFS low res. The important thing is the hi res looks very good and if things keep trending that way we should be on our way to being able to say the cold is coming around mid Jan or there about.

[Panayiotis]

Its going under but very slowly!! 

Lovely chart at 216hrs! Scandi high with undercutting low, the cold should flood our way!

Edited January 7, 2014 by Panayiotis

[LomondSnowstorm]

Shaping up to be perhaps the first stella FI (providing low res doesn't find a way to screw it up). As CC said high risk but high reward stuff, without either the following low or the one after that carving out more amplification and without the lowering of heights into Europe it could easily go the other way but this time it just about looks to work out:

Has a real look of last January about it with height rises just enough sufficient to deflect the jet on a NW-SE trajectory, at least as a starting point:

Edited January 7, 2014 by LomondSnowstorm

[gottolovethisweather]

I hope this is not a daft question, but the GFS 12Z 850mb/sea level run suggests a rapid decline of the cold that has been parked over Canada and the north US for ages. Is this significant?

 

My understanding is that it will aid the weakening of the Jet from the rampaging type which it is now. As a result I believe WAA (warm air advection) may drift North ahead a developing High Pressure cell in the Western end of the Atlantic. Someone, please correct me if my understanding of this is incorrect.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Its going under but very slowly!! 

 

We need to see a wedge of heights forced NW from there with the Atlantic jet continued to be forced under this wedge. Any sinkage of heights SE won't be good as it'll let zonality back in.

[weather eater]

Lots of cold air getting where we want it but can we get it this way, very interested as to what the UKMO’s take on this will be this evening as the GFS is millimetres off a full blown easterly on this run, when I say full blown, it’s a Scandi one at least.

Edited January 7, 2014 by weather eater

[warrenb]

She's going under

[Panayiotis]

...AND Atlantic ridge linking with Scandi high, what I was talking about a few minutes ago!

[shaky]

Well there you have it a lovely 12z run and a good chance of things backing up west even further!!

[MR EXTREMES]

to be fair if the last chart of the run is to be correct then theres only one way it can go that's a big if with the gfs but south east into Europe with ridge in a good area into scandi problem is will it be a strong ridge or just surface ridge. still better run from the gfs.

 

[shedhead]

Lots of cold air getting where we want it but can we get it this way, very interested as to what the UKMO’s take on this will be this evening as the GFS is millimetres off a full blown easterly on this run.

Pity it's such a poor model though, because this chart looks like we might be starting to get somewhere at last...maybe a blue moon event tho, you never know.

 

[shaky]

And ukmo is slow to get out the blocks once again!!this happens everyday and its getting a bit ridiculous now!!

[Mucka]

LOL true to form GFS FI is a joke and is wrong even in the first few frames IMO. Don't know why I even looked at it. 

Edited January 7, 2014 by Mucka

[gottolovethisweather]

LP seemingly wants to hang around in the Atlantic for days on end like the local town looney

 

 

For me, this is often a sign that the GFS is toying with the idea of reverse zonality, i.e. potential for Easterly flow thereafter. It's as if the GFS is asking itself, just where do I put yet another surface feature, that'll do I'll plonk in Mid Atlantic.

[Barry12]

Pity it's such a poor model though, because this chart looks like we might be starting to get somewhere at last...maybe a blue moon event tho, you never know.

 

 

You were saying the GFS was the best model the other day?

[Panayiotis]

And ukmo is slow to get out the blocks once again!!this happens everyday and its getting a bit ridiculous now!!

where are you viewing the 12z UKMO?

[UV-RAY]

...AND Atlantic ridge linking with Scandi high, what I was talking about a few minutes ago!

Interestingly the Korean long range model is going for such a set up but from mid February. Interesting developments but I feel it's a little too progressive, I feel we'll end up in no mans land until the latter part of this month before we start seeing much stronger heights to NE pushing westwards.