Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[shaky]

Oh my!!!!!!!what a fantastic 192 hour chart!!!!undercut galore!!

[cooling climate]

It perhaps depends upon which perspective (time-wise) you are looking at it CC.

 

In the shorter term you are completely correct, with just enough of a ridge at 100mb to give us the interest around Scandinavia towards the end of this week but nothing too significant currently modelled...that could still change but for now it looks mostly cool and dry (thank goodness) with perhaps Western areas more prone to something less settled.

 

However it has been stressed by numerous posters ever since September that this winter would be one that required patience. Most of the stratospheric posters have not been expecting anything of too much excitement until later in January and towards February, and to that extent there are some very encouraging signs this morning.

 

The first being this:

 

 

With the E-P Flux forecast finally heading somewhere a little more poleward which helps to deflect wave activity to where we want it to be going.

 

The other encouraging thing though from a tropospheric point of view should be this:

 

 

A scandinavian high is a classic tropospheric precursor to an increase in wave 2 activity a little way down the line. Remember December 2012, the failed 'beast from the east'? The high really stalled out over Scandinavia...but a few weeks later we started to see the an increase in both wave 1 and wave 2 activity (wave 1 I believe was driven by the pattern over the pacific) and come early January 2013 we saw the results. Admittedly we would probably like to see the Scandi HP a little further North of where it is shown at present (assuming of course it does verify) but that should be an encouraging sign for anyone seeking cold - it forms the basis of Cohen's snow advance index theory, with the rapid increase in snow cover aiding the development of a siberian high which ridges Westwards in to Scandinavia and in turn leads to an increase in wave 2 activity (thanks to all kinds of feedback mechanisms) a few weeks later.

 

So in summary shorter term my punt is for cool and dry and I think that has always been the favoured scenario - along with offering relief from the relentless rainfall and strong winds. But it is longer term prospects that continue to excite and up until now this sits bang in line with the majority of winter forecasts.

 

SK

Hi Snowking I would like to clarify a few points.

The failed easterly that we saw in December 12 had everything to do with the Jan 13 warming which originated in the western Pacific and moved northeast ward  across America, the UK and Europe ending in a very strong EAMT. This was shown very well in the CDAS 10mb temperature animation at the time.

This warming led to the blocking we saw in Jan, Feb, and especially March which was also aided by another strong EAMT around the middle of February.A strong EAMT is ongoing at the moment with a wave 2 warming although the warming on the Siberian side is the strongest but in the days to come this is expected to wane and the warming on our side increase which will help push the vortex away from us stretching it as it does so. It is this warming and how it affects the vortex both in strength and orientation that will determine wheather we see a pattern change to colder wintry weather or not in the next few weeks. If the warming is not strong enough to disrupt the vortex you may be looking at a late warming or even an early final warning to see colder wintry weather during the spring.

[MR EXTREMES]

u can almost taste it come to papa and to top it of the jma and gem all have colder evolutions so its becoming a stronger possibility so far so good.

[Ali1977]

Some moral in this afternoon charts, apart from GFS humbug!!!

[nick sussex]

Lol! what chaos. I'm afraid the models are all over the place here and continuity has just gone up in smoke. I'd advise coldies of a nervous disposition to not read too much into tonights outputs until upstream issues are resolved.

 

As expected the ECM 192hrs has seen about 25 replies in about 30 seconds!

[Panayiotis]

Well im glad the ECM has saved it at 192hrs...

[bluearmy]

so much more energy in the southern split of the jet on the 12z ecm. looking at the other 12z ops, this maybe the theme of the day. whether it will be the same on the 00z's is another matter entirely. we almost look to be honing in on a fairly loose looking x op solution. much too broad at the moment for detail but it is certainly worth sticking with it. looking upstream on the ecm op at day 8, frames 9 and 10 will show a strong push of the jet out into the atlantic. will beinteresting to see if we can get an idea what ecm op with its high res wants to do with this.

[UV-RAY]

Lol! what chaos. I'm afraid the models are all over the place here and continuity has just gone up in smoke. I'd advise coldies of a nervous disposition to not read too much into tonights outputs until upstream issues are resolved.

 

As expected the ECM 192hrs has seen about 25 replies in about 30 seconds!

Indeed Nick, far too much variance at this moment in time so I'll keep my feet firmly planted on terra firma until the upstream pattern is resolved.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The ECM 168 to 192....we don't see what happens....but that is a NW to SE diver and would bring some very very interesting weather...but its fast moving ain't it?  216 to 240...the same for me.  At last!!! some real interest...the models are taking their time

 

BFTP

Edited January 6, 2014 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Cloud 10]

ecm op showing another solution at day 7. not had this one so far from the model. tbh, i'll let you know if i like it at day 8 ! (it it plausible and might involve those frigid temps to our ne not being wasted on se europe !

 

I certainly wasn't expecting the 192 hrs chart!

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010612/ECH1-192.GIF?06-0

 

 

Nice to see a few of the 12z operational runs actually getting some cold into the UK

although the usual extreme caution applies.

[Summer Sun]

Getting closer but will the low push it east

 

 

Possibly a battleground setting up for snow?

Edited January 6, 2014 by Summer Sun

[MR EXTREMES]

Lol! what chaos. I'm afraid the models are all over the place here and continuity has just gone up in smoke. I'd advise coldies of a nervous disposition to not read too much into tonights outputs until upstream issues are resolved.

 

As expected the ECM 192hrs has seen about 25 replies in about 30 seconds!

I agree in regards to the ecm its messy but nice to see but one good thing things certainly look like drying out in the south for a little while within a decent timeframe to.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I agree in regards to the ecm its messy but nice to see but one good thing things certainly look like drying out in the south for a little while within a decent timeframe to.

Not before midweek...potential problems again!!

 

BFTP

[weather eater]

Thank you Nick Sussex and bluearmy sensible pragmatic and logical analysis

Edited January 6, 2014 by weather eater

[MR EXTREMES]

this mornings

tonight

huge difference in just 12 hrs I agree im waiting more runs needed.

Edited January 6, 2014 by emotional rollercoaster

[karlos1983]

Give me the 240 chart now please, undercut incoming 

[TSNWK]

ECM 192 I like enjoy

Is 216 lining up for a 168 -> 192 repeat at 240...

[Summer Sun]

New addition to the ECM maps on meteociel is this

 

[MR EXTREMES]

nope its a sinker

as I said earlier is it possible the vortex could move back to its Greenland location........ to be continued.....

Edited January 6, 2014 by emotional rollercoaster

[Summer Sun]

Coldest air going back east at t240

 

[Matty M]

Very good ECMWF.

 

Although not the full McCoy, it really gives us a hope that we could actually get a decent cold spell in the second half of January.

[R.P. McMurphy]

New addition to the ECM maps on meteociel is this

 

 

Good chart Gavin.

 

Seems someone will see frontal snow from this, we just need it to push more west.

[TSNWK]

Shame I was expecting more from ECM at 240.. But none the less I enjoyed that run and was nice on the eye from 144. We did have a cracking ECM run on friday which tempted me to light up a hamlet, tonight I will keep the cigar box shut..

[R.P. McMurphy]

 

Good chart from the JMA...

 

Are we finally heading towards cold and snow? Come of GFS... Get with it !

[karlos1983]

Shame I was expecting more from ECM at 240.. But none the less I enjoyed that run and was nice on the eye from 144. We did have a cracking ECM run on friday which tempted me to light up a hamlet, tonight I will keep the cigar box shut..

 

The bit that makes me happy is that the changes are getting into the more reliable time frames, not +216-240. Long way to go obv and could still go pear, but all positive i feel atm